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GJWValue
353 posts
GJWValue
@jayg327
value investor focused on real assets, all posts are personal opinions, NOT investment advice, DYODD
Katılım Şubat 2022
127 Takip Edilen374 Takipçiler
people are getting shaken out of the AI supercycle trade right now. Remember, it is never about the war, tariffs or anything u see on the news. The real reason violent moves like this happens is big boys want to load more on the cheap. thesis intact, I'm buying $INTC $AAOI $EWY.
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However, sentiment among foreign investors are gradually improving. another catalyst is sk hynix's potential US ADR listing. Such a listing would unquestionably lead to a rerate for hynix. Giving IBKR access to the korean market is another small catalyst for multiple expansion.
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@jayg327 Oh you’re buying memory stocks on forward P/E? That always worked out great
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$ewy bought very aggressively in the 143s to $145s. 18% position. Samsung at 3x earning and hynix at 2x. this will be over $200 by yr end and I am being very conservative. for those who comparing $ewy to silver, u ngmi. for those who still thinks memory is peaking, u ngmi.
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@blondesnmoney based off macquaire numbers, don't think they're overly aggressive in their assumptions
x.com/i/status/20270…
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
These are projected earnings for 2026-2027 from MS / Macquarie. Samsung 2026: ~$182.0B USD vs. ~$210.8B USD 2027: ~$235.1B USD vs. ~$333.7B USD SK Hynix: 2026: ~$132.9B USD vs. ~$190.5B USD 2027: ~$167.0B USD vs. ~$312.8B USD So roughly 2027 3.7x P/E for Samsung and 2.2x P/E SK Hynix.
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@blondesnmoney appreciate ur recognition sir, that's why I remain a loyal subscriber of urs, keep doing the good work and don't ever think about hanging it up. small cap financial investors need u as a basic necessity of life.
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$xop still short, easiest short ever at $162, what kind of morons buy this above $160 and expect to make money, u do know it's full of shale shitcos that'll never make back their cost of capital right??? and btw oil market is oversupplied rn and opec just raised output again
GJWValue@jayg327
shorted quite a bit $xop ~ $162. man this is like the easiest money ever. trading higher than 2022 when oil was >$110 lmao
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$igic unclear if this operation would cause a selloff in igic given their middle eastern exposure (not as big as people think), also probably some impact on their energy/marine biz as well, think it would be a good opportunity to add if it sells off. @blondesnmoney thoughts sir?
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50% is vast underreaction to the 2027 projections. bought a 5% position at $78, this should be at >$150. Thx @aleabitoreddit, u're the GOAT
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
After earnings, $AAOI could easily be a $25B-$30B company next year from $5B if they hit their projections. And they're one of the only "Made in America" (Sugarland, Texas) companies out of - $LITE (global) - $COHR (global) - $FN (Thai) - $AVGO (global) - Innolight (China), and Eoptolink (China). So they likely get that "America" premium like $INTC compared to $TSM and $MU compared to Sk Hynix. But from revenue: FY Revenue: $456 million 2027 ARR by : $4.536B (~900%+ growth). Off high 30's - low 40% projected margins + hyperscaler qualifications. This is wild. But there was a $250M ATM, but that's typically pennies compared to the projection. This part is extremely interesting: -> Management stated that demand and capacity for 800G, 1.6T modules could surge nearly 10x by mid-2027. This is also a large tailwind for epiwafer companies too like $IQE and Landmark and more upstream like $AXTI. $AAOI is a core hold over 2026-2027, but there's always execution risks if they can deliver. $25-30B MC projections sound surreal but that's how wild the earnings was if they hit $4.35B ARR, off 900%+ growth (and photonics scale up is likely to continue even further into 2028-2029)
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