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@TraderBreeze @RenMacLLC Nothing happens. The localised gamma at these levels is not material in context of daily SPX flows.

@RenMacLLC I’m curious what happens when Friday is out of the way

$SPX < 6600 is first gamma floor, but dangerous frenzy starts in ernest $SPX < 6500 while staring down the barrel of 4x witching tomorrow. #gamma

@Citrini7 Almost half SPX is down more than 20% from 52 week high…. Index just isn’t telling us a good enough picture

I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually. The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either. And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back. It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…

@jasonfurman @lisaabramowicz1 just like our discussion :)

Remember when oil topped $150/barrel in the wake of the 2011 Libya strikes? And stayed above that price for most of the next 2 yrs? OK, you may not remember because you probably weren't thinking about oil in 2026 prices back then. But if you were that's what you would have seen.

@Citrini7 @PurpleDrink_LLC Doesn’t mean they’re right though, innit.

@PurpleDrink_LLC My audience is pretty smart tho

Citrini polled people and they’re 2/3 bearish So nobody worry Market gonna be fine

@GinaMartinAdams 2022 was a function of the deliberate and fastest tightening of financial conditions by the Fed since the 1970s. Comparing then versus now based on one variable of war (which has nothing to do with the Fed!) is like probably not right.

The equity market was "resilient" at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war as well...it took five weeks of high oil prices before stocks started to capitulate to inflation pressures in 2022.

@fkronawitter1 Do oil prices go up or down when that happens?

This is why the US needs to act and more escalation seems likely x.com/DeItaone/statu…

@tracyalloway @stevehou Except people aren’t meh - they’re petrified of private credit, AI disruption, job losses, and ‘high’ oil prices (hint: they’re really not high). Bearishness is the most elevated since Liberation Day.

I was in Hong Kong in Feb 2020 and remember this being a very weird time. Investors had been worrying about the US-China trade war under Trump 1.0. Then China effectively shut down most of its economy and markets basically shrugged. Similar vibes right now

@NoContextBrits Children’s party mixed grill

What do you call this meal?

@skyquake_1 @_stevenhl @tradexyz Thank you for offsetting some of the moronic posts on this platform

@_stevenhl @tradexyz Look sub minute eg today and it’s the other way around

When you overlay @tradexyz's crude oil ticker with CME's, the recent weekends are interesting. It appears CME's price is the one catching up with Hyperliquid's, not the other way around. Tangible evidence of real price discovery is happening on Hyperliquid during the weekends.

@NoContextBrits The cap on my life insurance

Which item are you removing?

@Kacper_PK_CH @jam_croissant Stocks halved in 18 months in your chart above, and the rolling 180d rate of change for SPX by Q4’74 was -36%, officially the second worst on record since the Great Depression. How is that ‘slow slicing?’

Great read about the 1973–1974 bear market below. And since I'm a visual person, I've added the chart. I'll go ahead and name it slow slicing (trademark pending), or lingchi – "death by a thousand cuts", a historical traditional Chinese form of torture. 😉

@alexandraandnyc Пельмени и борщ со сметаной, innit.

Moseying around Tallinn, Estonia 🇪🇪

@charliebilello When we produce 14mmboe/d versus 5mm in 2010 (when SPR peaked), doesn’t it make sense that we don’t need to have the same size reserves? Whereas China produces <<checks notes>> 4mmboe/d. By definition their SPR needs to be a lot larger

If our reserve was actually "Strategic" we would have been buying at low prices all of last year before starting the war in Iran.

Reminder: tapping the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" is just about optics. It has no meaningful impact on the price of Oil because the reserve is so small, only representing 20 days of US Oil consumption (assuming we used it all) and 4 days of global Oil usage (100m barrels/day).

@Citrini7 You nailed the lows in software too last month, you got credit for that

We don’t get enough credit for calling the exact bottom (and massive pluggable/CPO demand coming) for CIEN, COHR & LITE and the rest of the optics space back in August 2024. Everyone’s on it now, but you can’t imagine the flak we got for being “tourists” that would get burned by the telecom cycle back then. We were so convinced we wrote TWO back to back articles pounding the table on these, and even compared CIEN’s revision cycle to NVDA’s. When all of these stocks were at the bottom of a 2 year long, 50%+ cyclical drawdown. Anyway, our update to the optics trade is coming out Thursday. I wonder if it’ll be as unpopular as our initiations were. I sure hope so.

@TheStalwart @ryxcommar Dividend adjustment, innit

@ryxcommar Why did it drop by that amount?

The S&P500 is down -0.19% since last Tuesday close. Relatively uneventful week.

@biancoresearch “Corrected”

The SPX has corrected 5% for the first time since November.

@litcapital 🤣👍🏼

We are finally going to achieve peace in the Middle East

@Osint613 The finest trolling.

Putin says oil production tied to the Strait of Hormuz could come to a complete halt early next month, adding that Russia is ready to supply Europe with energy if requested.

@jeuasommenulle STIR traders took a dirt nap last week. Been a rough period of unwinds, would not trust the signaling in that market currently

Someone is wrong - I don't know if it's the oil traders or the STIR traders, but someone is wrong CL Futs vs OIS implied ECB hikes.

@PauloMacro Dude you know when gs commods desk saying $200/bbl that it’s time to fade war premium so hard…

Rarely go after sht because I get so much wrong and I have to live with that in the P&L, but I do keep a scrap book called Worst Takes of All Time (not sarcasm) and this chart from GS on WEDNESDAY went in it from the moment of publication. Ironically on their Sunday macro call now the view is Iran's plan was to decentralize command structure to survive this as an existential threat so even if Trump wanted to off-ramp, there is no ability to negotiate an end to this for a long time. If you thought that was obvious last Sunday night when producers were overhedging and the market was saying "nbd" at $70 WTI, just remember that it's not just that No One Is Paying Attention anymore. It's far worse -- and far more convex for those who take the time to look. Not a dunk - but this one is an All Timer for the scrap book.