Jayk

Iran hit Saudi Arabia’s oil refinery…now it’s FAFO time!!! 🚨BREAKING: Israel reportedly just DESTROYED 30 Iranian oil storage tanks, and a major refinery in Tehran is completely UP IN FLAMES. Numerous videos showing the aftermath of US strikes on Iranian oil depots in Tehran, Iran. This is essentially a direct hit on China now. Oil is about to skyrocket.

In the next 48-72 hours, i think 1 of 2 scenarios will become obvious. Scenario 1 Military strikes begin tapering in intensity. Oil markets will remain relatively stable. We should see some progress with Irans leadership council’s vis omani diplomatic channels. Strikes will remain restricted to military targets and buildings. We should see a noticeable shift in US or Israeli rhetoric toward “mission accomplishment” language that sets up a ceasefire framework. Scenario 2 The IRGC hardens. Field commanders, now operating with delegated authority and no supreme leader to override them, continue retaliatory strikes on Gulf infrastructure and shipping. A major strike on Saudi or UAE export facilities with the intention to flip the economic calculus entirely, potentially pushing brent above $100 and forcing the GCC to actively participate in the military campaign rather than absorbing hits passively. This extends the conflict timeline from weeks to potentially months and it would make my theatre thesis functionally irrelevant. Because even if the strategic endgame remains regime transformation in Iran, the path to it becomes genuinely destructive rather than managed.

JUST IN: Video shows ship traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.

BREAKING: Oil prices officially drop back below $70/barrel, now up just +3.5% on the day. Oil markets have now erased nearly 70% of their opening move higher. This is NOT World War 3. Ignore the noise.

This was a banger trade man Almost half way there