jay pelosky

at TPWA we have introduced Covid Speed in Spring 2020, Climate Speed in Spring 2021 and Analytical Speed last month > here's why > Peter Diamandis: ‘In the next 10 years, we’ll reinvent every industry’ theguardian.com/technology/202…

he aint wrong and it looks like it is being adopted > A blueprint for Chinese global leadership ft.com/content/cf2eee… via @ft

China will deliver credible guarantees after coordinating with the US ahead of the summit in Beijing. And it will take care of the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. US land operation in Iran is the worst case scenario for everyone, including the US. The threshold has been reached.

The $VIX closed above 30 in each of the last 2 trading days. Historically, this level of fear in the Volatility Index has been associated with above-average future stock market returns (+21% over the next year on average). But the biggest gains have come with the $VIX above 40.

In what world is it okay for the Defense Secretary to make multi-million dollar investments in defense companies: a) Ever; b) Just before launching a war. FT has the scoop: ft.com/content/744ea8… In a functional democracy, he would offer his resignation tonight.

🚨Pakistan (one of the mediators between the U.S. and Iran) and China announce new peace initiative: 1. Immediate ceasefire 2. Opening negotiations 3. Halting attacks on infrastructure targets (energy, water, etc.) 4. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz 5. A peace agreement with UN support

This is shocking even by the admin's standards. "A broker for Pete Hegseth...attempted to make a big investment in major defence companies in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter." ft.com/content/744ea8…

china and pakistan release five point peace plan for ending iran war. no mention of us and israel call to restore full passage of strait of hormuz (no iran ability to disrupt/charge tolls). initiative should be welcomed by pretty much everybody.

A steady fall into the abyss for Trump's net approval, as it falls into Death Valley. He's now at a term 2 low: -18 pts. Big reason why: Independents. Trump's at -45 pts. The worst for any prez at this point in term 2. Worse than Nixon (-36 pts) at the height of Watergate!

Not a great sign > Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war ft.com/content/1c4189… via @ft

This great piece by @ishaantharoor, in which I'm quoted, gets the 1956 Suez War history right and explains its echoes for the Iran War. Increasingly I fear that Trump's massive strategic error will damage U.S. power and prestige far more than Suez hurt Britain and France. The UK/France gambit to take the canal backfired spectacularly. The *war itself* prompted Nasser to block the canal -- the outcome the UK/Fra was trying to prevent. It heralded the final decline of Britain from great power to "has been" status. The analogies to Trump's Iran debacle are legion. But an especially overlooked similarity is how the Suez War dramatically strengthened Nasser's power and influence throughout the region -- much like Trump how Trump's war has perversely *strengthened* the Islamic Republic of Iran. The war has provoked an entirely predictable (in fact, predicted) nationalistic response among many Iranians -- including those who hate the regime but now hate the U.S. and Israel more for bombing universities, threatening the electric grid, and blanketing Tehran with toxic rain following the explosion at a nearby refinery. Not only has the regime consolidated power, but it is now filled with hardliners after Israeli assassinations have killed off relative pragmatists like Ali Larijani. Courtesy of Trump, Iran has also discovered it can paralyze oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and collect "tolls" in exchange for freedom of passage. Iran is now trying to institutionalize its newfound leverage, which could be a lasting unintended consequence of this foolish war. I've argued before that Trump's Iran war is already the U.S.'s "Suez Moment" in terms of signifying U.S. strategic decline -- especially a decline in our ability to make sound national security decisions. But the Iran War could turn out considerably worse than Suez because the US has no one to check us from our own strategic excesses. This war will unfold as badly as Trump decides to make it, and the indications are that he intends to escalate, making it worse. Russia and China are sipping champagne while they watch the U.S. self-destruct from the sidelines. In 1956, both the U.S. and the USSR leaned heavily on Britain and France to withdraw. The Soviets even made blatant nuclear threats to compel UK/Fra to quit Suez. In 2026, there is no higher power. Only the U.S. itself can course-correct before making a bad situation even worse with further escalation. But Trump's impenetrable hubris and poor decision-making don't inspire confidence that the U.S. will retrench. @defpriorities @NewYorker newyorker.com/news/the-lede/…

Pete Hegseth is so spectacularly stupid that he used his insider knowledge of a strike on Iran to attempt a multimillion-dollar trade that LOST money

Trump's approval rating just fell below 40 percent in our tracking for the first time. And his net approval rating is now -17.4, also a new low and down about 5 points over the past several weeks.

Four-byline alert: 🚨 “.. A broker for Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, attempted to make a big investment in major defence companies in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, according to three people familiar ..” @FT ft.com/content/744ea8…

So having a stable trading relationship with our peaceful, democratic neighbor, with whom we share a 4000-mile border, has national-security implications? Trump slams Canada with tariffs. Canada diversifies exports of aluminum. Trump starts war. Needs aluminum. Genius.

"Rates literally stopped falling as soon as the Fed started cutting rates" @JC_ParetsX

Stocks almost always go up after the VIX spikes. The VIX just hit 31 and historically the S&P 500 averages a 9.5% return over the next 6 months after the fear gauge hits that level. Volatility is better for returns than boring markets.

Yep, as we have been writing & saying for a yr plus, we are in first innings of a secular leadership change in global equity from US to ROW led by EM - Iran war a reset, not a reversal.

Yep and the former will drive the latter in the weeks & months ahead…

VIX 14-20 offers slow but very steady $SPX returns VIX 20-28 offers minimal and uneven SPX returns $VIX 29 - 33+ offers the MOST predictable and HIGHEST forward 6 and 12 months returns. In the Zone! $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $DIA $VVIX $UVXY $RUT $VXX $BTC $GLD $CL_F

China exporting diesel to Southeast Asia is not only a soft power move to show China is a responsible power but also means China is not worried about oil supply.