Jianggan Li

Get the full Ecommerce in Southeast Asia 2026 by @momentumasia here: momentum.asia/insights/detai…

We just released the latest ecommerce numbers for Southeast Asia in 2025 - you can see that TikTok/Tokopedia combined was already 2/3 of Shopee’s GMV. That was annual - a snapshot at the end of the year would show an even closer picture.

Chinese regulators calling an end to the food delivery war again. It might not end. thelowdown.momentum.asia/chinese-regula…

Sea group shares dropped 16% - what happened to Shopee? thelowdown.momentum.asia/sea-group-shar…

@okassim @awscloud Is seems the strategy there is to disrupt multiple types of infrastructure

💥 Drone strikes on multiple @awscloud Middle East regions has knocked out a number of financial service providers health.aws.amazon.com/health/status

Our thoughts on Deliveroo quitting Singapore market thelowdown.momentum.asia/our-thoughts-o…

Meituan shuts down Peppr in the U.S. market thelowdown.momentum.asia/meituan-shuts-…

[Full text] SHEIN founder's rare public speech thelowdown.momentum.asia/full-text-shei…

@momentumasia @JayC_Investing @GabGrowth In a couple of markets, #tiktokshop already sends more parcels than #shopee. In Indonesia TTS/Tokopedia combined is closing in with Shopee.

@JayC_Investing @GabGrowth 29% on an annual 2025 basis. But TikTok doesn’t see it annually - they track by daily (things move fast and annual reporting is less relevant for them). So the share at Dec 2025/beginning 2026 can be much higher than 29%. @jianggan might be able to share more

JUST IN: TikTok Shop GMV doubled to $45.6B in 2025 For context, $SE Shopee GMV in 2025 is estimated to be about $125-130B.

@ottavicap @HaydenCapital @pioseem88 @momentumasia We took a brief look at a few data providers. Interestingly Chinese providers all have very similar in overall market GMV but differ more in category mix. I suspect a reason is they have sources within ByteDance to find out the overall GMV.

@jianggan @HaydenCapital @pioseem88 @momentumasia Thanks for sharing! Have you compared to other providers like yipit? I’m trying to reconcile why TTS estimates vary so greatly.

$SE is down -45% over the past few months. The prevailing bear case seems to hinge on two points: 1) Rising fear of TikTok Shop competition, and 2) Shopee reinvesting more heavily into logistics, capping margins at ~0.7% of GMV this year vs. prior expectations of ~1.2%. The concern is that this spend is defensive - a necessary response to TikTok rather than a choice. But alt data is telling a different story. TikTok Shop’s Southeast Asia GMV growth has slowed materially over the past few quarters - from 70%+ in 2Q25 to ~30%+ by late 2025. That’s only modestly above Shopee’s own growth rate. More notably, TikTok’s relative share vs. Shopee in Indonesia (~50% of regional GMV) has effectively flat-lined over the past year. If this data is directionally right, Shopee’s ~50 bps of reinvestment looks discretionary and offensive -widening the moat - rather than a defensive reaction to competitive pressure. And critically, that implies the margin compression is temporary, not structural. Oh, and both Shopee & Tiktok are raising take-rates. Not usually the sign of a competitor trying to aggressively take share... Curious, what am I missing? Is the -45% drawdown really just “2026 margins down > negative 2026 earnings revisions > stock down,” even if margins are likely to re-expand next year? And Shopee emerges with a wider moat after? The competitive backdrop looks like it’s improving, not deteriorating...

@HaydenCapital @ottavicap @pioseem88 @momentumasia So this is what we are publishing this morning ;) momentum.asia/insights/detai… The numbers here should be between actual GMV and NMV

@HaydenCapital @ottavicap @pioseem88 @momentumasia We will publish some numbers about TikTok Shop next Wednesday - stay tuned ;)

Why might Delivery Hero sell its best asset? thelowdown.momentum.asia/why-might-deli…

My friend, who runs multiple retail businesses, thinks it is easy to hold the fish this way; I think the otter starts from the part where it can eat the fastest - in nature you never know when you will lose the fish, so might as well catch as much while you can.

On a walk we saw this otter eating a fish it just caught. Why does it eat the fish head not the meat first?

Part of the loan book growth inflection is also because certain businesses needed 2 years to get everything ready from regulators (they deal with a lot of regulators in a lot of countries) and partners (e.g. banks doing co-lending to have systems ready to process 1000s of applications at the same time). We will see more product rollouts from Monee moving forwards that have been months if not years in negotiations

Just hammering this home. For simplicity's sake, let's use round numbers for 2025: 1) J&T Order Volume Grows: 75% y/y 2) Tiktok & Other Customers Grows: 40% y/y 3) J&T Grows Market Share from 27% in 2024 > 33% in 2025 (disclosed in the 1H25 Report) 4) Non-platform % of revenue goes from 0% > 10% in 2025. All the data-points line up. Takeaway: It can be true that J&T grew 75% y/y, AND Tiktok is slowing to 40% y/y orders growth (and 30% y/y GMV). - Market narrative of Tiktok competition increasing is likely wrong. - Means that Shopee's recent spend is not a defensive move or coming from a weakened position. - In fact, they're pressing harder, while competition is weak (That's just how they operate. They waited to grow Monee loans, until the digibanks started blowing up. That's why you see an inflection in loan growth 2 years ago. Compare that to when Indo digibank NPLs started blowing up, and you'll see the correlation). Included pictures of the math (thanks ChatGPT). $SE $1519.HK

@pioseem88 @HaydenCapital @momentumasia Order growth in 2025 should be higher than 40% yoy methinks

@HaydenCapital Wouldn't J&T Express parcels volume growing 73.6% in Q4 indicate faster TikTok Shop growth? @momentumasia believes it is mostly driven by TTS.

J&T needs and wants to diversify (in SEA) - the challenge is there is nobody else who can give that volume or that growth. Other 3PLs withdraw largely because their costs are higher than J&T’s prices (to a specific customer); and some can’t meet the service level demanded by the specific customer

DDL does a really good job in execution especially in supply chain and operations. Alas - in a game where tech giants like Meituan and Alibaba are fighting against tech-enabled giants like Sam’s Club, selling is probably the best option. thelowdown.momentum.asia/meituan-buying…

SEA food delivery in 2025: 1. Regional GMV hits US$ 22.7B (+15% YoY) 2. Grab leads with 55% regional market share 3. ShopeeFood overtakes foodpanda to become #2 4. Thailand experiences largest growth (22% YoY) #FoodDelivery #SoutheastAsia #MomentumWorks #TechPlatforms