Quant

Confirmed up only

This is why the people are a bit upset, because it would seem like the fed made a not so great decision that will negatively impact markets in the long term. Tbh I do think a big part of it was also not just that he didn’t hike but moreso the fact that he looked very incompetent to the press giving the market no confidence that future decisions will be good either

However, when pricing long term loans, the market has to price their expectation of what the rate will be over the entire period, in this case over the next 30 years. The fact that the market is pricing higher rates in the long end despite no hike means the market basically thinks the fed made a mistake, the level it set the rates too is not sustainable and will lead to higher inflation which will lead to even more rate hikes in the future than if they had just hiked now.

not sure why everyone is so upset about this free market is deciding the rates why are niggas begging the government to override free makets??

I’m def behind the “most projects don’t need tokens” statement, but also, not that tokens can serve to get people to send them money before the product is finished so they can use the funds to improve the product right? Like a capital raise. It’s very realistic that this use case was very good 5 years ago but weak now given how much AI lowered the cost of code etc.

ever think that that’s proof the projects don’t need tokens and you were just grifting vaporware this whole time little jihadi boi

@qwantkitty @cashedOutOnUs Agree. If what that girl says is true she deserves nothing but sympathy… this space can be tough and sometimes attracts the worse people in the short term but u always see them give it back to the market as well

wrote this after reading your story about bastille @cashedOutOnUs x.com/i/article/2082…

@Cbb0fe Again x.com/jiggy_quant/st…

Bro who’s been copy-trading one leg of the delta-neutral has been cooking like crazy lmao

In many cases the existence of a GTO implies that the strategy that represents such a state cannot, if played properly, be exploited, and that is something to be aware of. At the same time ofc in most complex systems it’s too hard at least at our current level of intelligent to find and execute GTO especially in assymetric games like trading. I do agree that in these situations often there is a lot more edge in trying to creatively find out a way to exploit other players suboptimal strategies than in getting slightly closer to GTO than they are

In complex systems, especially games played against other human beings, you can often gain an edge by being highly creative rather than blindly following game theory When everyone studies the same material, follows the same principles, and repeats the same “correct” strategies, they often become vulnerable to ideas that sit outside that framework Not because game theory is wrong, but because most people haven’t deeply studied the counter-strategies to the consensus they are preaching. We’ve seen this happen again and again in poker. Addamo is probably the most famous example: he pushed aggression and creativity into spots where many players were still thinking too rigidly More recently, SeaLlama has shown the same thing again Its easier to be the best by doing things differently from everyone else rather than competing by doing the same exact things they’re doing

@ryxcommar @DeepDishEnjoyer Try to think of it from first principles, each bet is a new bet so they aren’t structured together, they are independent, but your post bet utility is higher so u can bet more on the previous trade.

@jiggy_quant @DeepDishEnjoyer you dont "value you capital logarithmically", this arises purely from how the bets are structured

the nerdy zoomer that thinks kelly is too risk averse needs to be studied

If u start reading my tweets and thinking instead of trying to show ur smart you will see these 2 statements are the same. You say yourself ur rule doesn’t apply for single trials, ofc each trade you do is a single iteration, so you have to trade ir according to the post trade utility, which is only logarithmic because you value your capital logarithmically because it allows you to put more size on future trials/ trading opportunities you believe might come.

We're saying different things. At risk of repeating myself. It *doesn't* come from utility. All that's required for my utility function is that it is strictly increasing in wealth Kelly betting is asymptotically optimal, even if U(wealth) = wealth. This would not be true in single trials; in that case, use utility framing, point me in the direction of Jensen's inequality, whatever. But the motivation is maximizing a local objective (i.e. one trial) which is asymptotically strictly optimal (i.e. over many trials), and if you use this framing it doesn't require utility functions whatsoever.

@ryxcommar @DeepDishEnjoyer I mean I guess that is true, but it does come from your utility as well, guess we are saying similar things in different words. In practice you do have a lot lower utility for losing a ton because that means u can bet less in future opportunities provided u expect them to exist

Kelly criterion maximizes the growth rate of wealth under specific assumptions about what bets you're allowed to make (unquantized, unbounded, accurate odds). Maximizing growth rate also asymptotically maximizes wealth over many independent wagers. That's fundamentally where log(wealth) wealth comes from, not utility concerns; Kelly criterion is the FOC of the objective which maximizes wealth asymptotically over many trials. On a single trial and with variance introduced, you can think more in utility framing, I guess, but it's wrong to think of utility functions as the motive or where it comes from.

@ryxcommar @DeepDishEnjoyer Why not? It’s what ur maximizing for right? And ur goal should ofc be to maximize ur utility so by setting this as the thing to maximize ur also saying this represents ur utility function

@jiggy_quant @DeepDishEnjoyer I do not think it makes sense to think of log(wealth) in the kelly criterion derivation as first and foremost a utility function

@DonPlacidoX Yes, with a tan :)

Are Portuguese people White?

Smartest people i knew from HS (graduated 2020) - SWE at palantir - mechanical engineering researcher - BMW engineer designing cars - crushing med school while on weed every day

@jellysmithrave Higher

solana:pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn bullish pump chart with 2 spots to TP for my pumptards (not taking this just posting by request)

@noname2k31 @punchdrunkdylan What exactly is manipulative about it? The fact that they disagree with you? Grow up

@jiggy_quant @punchdrunkdylan Because its textbook manipulation

awesome text to receive 4 hours into my 10 hour shift

@mikedizzll @ScCoast Worst take of the day

@ScCoast Imagine if you could save your auto insurance and social security money in an index fund for retirement, if not used.

Car insurance is a fucking scam. Lifetime I’ve paid over 100k in car insurance. Maybe used it 3 times for 5k tops. What a joke

@rossivision If your produce less value than the minimum wage, why would anyone pay you the minimum wage? At that point they might as well give the money to charity.

The sentence “people who aren’t worthy of the MINIMUM wage” explains everything you need to know about the right

@itsLexisWilson I guess ur dad is not in the picture?

American Cannons 🇺🇸