Borislav Donchev

@matthe1972 @benjamincowen If it follows the previous cycle, where was the alt season? And how much X did Bitcoin do in the previous cycles? And Ethereum? This cycle has nothing to do with the previous ones and many people will be caught off guard.

@jipabg @benjamincowen Its following the previous cycle almost perfectly

In midterm years, you get a low in Feb and in early April. Sometimes the low in early April is a lower low (2014), sometimes a higher low (2018). It’s more about identifying windows of weakness when lows generally occur. A higher low in April 2026 is not that different from the higher low in April 2018. Most people just expect the bear market to only go down, so the minute you get any type of rally everyone starts freaking out

@dangambardello @benjamincowen I don't understand why anyone is even trying to predict this cycle and why they are comparing it to previous ones, when there is nothing in common. How can they predict what will happen under Trump's administration...

I see people calling @benjamincowen out because Bitcoin is up 30% from recent lows. I recommend you don’t do that. 1. His thesis is not currently invalidated. Especially currently as BTC tests 20 week moving average resistance with days still until the close. So ya better be careful getting overly confident, as this could simply be a lower high. 2. There’s no need to be nasty or condescending towards someone just because they may share a different opinion than you on cycles. That’s one of the most ridiculous things I see on this app. You know where I stand. I think the business cycle will prove itself over the 4 year cycle. I think we are far closer to the bottom being in than someone like Benjamin might think. But that’s beside the point. Respect each other, and dare I say…root for each other!

@GordonGekko @KobeissiLetter Absolute jerks!

@KobeissiLetter Everytime my crypto starts looking good Mfers do some shit like this

BREAKING: Danish pension fund AkademikerPension announces they will sell all US Treasuries by month-end, citing "rising credit risk" under President Trump. The fund's CIO says US finances are no longer "sustainable," due to weak fiscal discipline, a softer Dollar, and Trump’s push for Greenland.

@TedPillows I don't trust this fraudster SZ at all. I even get worried when he writes these things.

Binance founder CZ says “super cycle incoming. The only question is when. I have some thoughts about it. You?

@TheBTCTherapist Don't you think they were paid to change their minds so abruptly?

THIS MIGHT HAVE BEEN THE GREATEST FAKE OUT IN THE HISTORY OF BITCOIN. SOME OF THE SMARTEST TRADERS AND INVESTORS IN THE WORLD HAVE FLIPPED BEARISH. SHAME. I WILL BE UNBEARABLE AT $200,000 AND I WILL NOT FORGET YOUR NAMES. SEE YOU IN 2026.

@david_eng_mba @saylor @cz_binance @MicroStrategy @LynAldenContact I read your posts with interest.

THE ETF ILLUSION VS. THE DERIVATIVE REALITY: THE DEC 26 UNLOCK Retail observers often look to ETF volume as the primary driver of price. The data suggests this is currently a mistake. ETF Activity: The flow analysis shows a Neutral direction with low confidence. While IBIT volume is high at 26.4M shares, the price impact is muted (+1.26%). Derivative Dominance: In contrast, the options market is exerting a massive gravitational pull. The Total Gamma Exposure (GEX) is effectively neutral (Net $-18M), but this "net" number hides the gross magnitude of the walls. We have $249M in Call Gamma pushing down against $267M in Put Gamma pushing up. Quantitative Insight: The options market is currently the dominant force. The "Dealer Hedge Flow" chart details why price cannot move. At $90,000, there is a $40M Call Wall. If price tries to rise to $90k, dealers (who are short these calls) are mathematically forced to SELL to hedge their exposure, creating artificial resistance. Conversely, at $89,000 and below, dealers must BUY to hedge puts. This creates a mechanical "buy low, sell high" loop that traps the price in a narrow range regardless of ETF inflows. The "Gamma BJJ Headlock" will remain tight until December 26th. On that day, over half of the suppressive hedging positions will vanish allowing the stored energy of the ETF inflows to finally express itself in price action. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Options #MarketStructure #GammaSqueeze

@david_eng_mba @saylor @cz_binance @Strategy @MicroStrategy @GrantCardone @LynAldenContact Wow…what an article! David, you put a lot of effort into it, for which I admire and thank you!

The Death of the 4-Year Cycle and the Path to the Next $600K Super-Cycle Current Price: $88K Many on X and social media are still echoing a 4-year cycle false narrative. Let’s kill it tonight. Investors wedded to the 4-Year Cycle are selling now for one simple reason: their “clock” tells them time is up. According to that theory, Bitcoin is past its expiration date. The model dictated a peak 18 months post-halving (October 2025), followed by a guaranteed crash in 2026. Because we are sitting at $88k instead of the predicted $250k, they believe the cycle has failed. It hasn’t failed. It has evolved. The “4-year cycle” never made mathematical sense. Bitcoin is a multiplicative system evolving in log-time (power law). Imposing a fixed, linear clock on a scaling asset guarantees failure. Expecting Bitcoin to follow a 4-year cycle forever is like expecting a 40-year-old to grow the same number of inches they did at age four. The clock isn't broken. You're just looking at the wrong one. 1. The Statistical "Smoking Gun" Ran a head-to-head competition between the Fixed 4-Year Model and the Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) Model over Bitcoin's entire history. The results were decisive. Fixed 4-Year Model AIC: -6,386.1 LPPL Model AIC: -7,510.5 The Difference (AIC): 1,124.4 In statistics, a difference of 10 is strong evidence. A difference of 1,000 is a disqualification. The fixed 4-year cycle is statistically incompatible with the data. Bitcoin does not tick like a clock; it grows like a living system. 2. The Physics of Time Dilation If the cycle isn't 4 years, what is it? The LPPL model unlocked a natural frequency (omega) of 8.89. This value is within 1.90% of the theoretical constant for "Age-Doubling" (~9.06). Bitcoin operates in Log-Time, not Calendar Time. Infancy (2010-2013): Cycles were fast and violent because the network was small. Adulthood (2025+): As the network scales, "time" effectively slows down. It takes exponentially more energy and capital to move the price, causing the cycle duration to stretch. The "4-Year Cycle" was a temporary optical illusion created during Bitcoin’s adolescence. That window has closed. 3. The Death of the 80% Crash (Damping) The 4-Year narrative depends on the "inevitable" 80% crash in 2026. The math says those crashes belong to the past. The model detects a Damping Rate (beta) of -0.40 2011 Volatility Amplitude: ~100% 2025 Volatility Amplitude: ~47% Bitcoin has shed 53% of its historical volatility. We are no longer facing a vertical blow-off top followed by a total collapse. We are entering a phase of sustained, lower-volatility compounding. 4. The Trap vs. The Supercycle This is where confusion creates the ultimate opportunity. The Trap: The 4-Year model predicts a crash in 2026 because it thinks "time is up." Sellers are exiting now at $88k to avoid a phantom bear market. The Reality: The LPPL model predicts that 2026 will be a breakout year, not a breakdown year. Model Forecast for 2026: ~$219K (End of Year) 2026 is likely to deliver a decisive, mathematical rejection of the “4-Year Cycle” model. While the old guard waits for a crash, the Supercycle model projects a grind higher, targeting a true structural peak of $619K in August 2029. Conclusion: We are not witnessing the death of Bitcoin. We are witnessing the end of the speculator’s cycle and the emergence of Bitcoin as a world class sovereign asset class. The conclusion is purely mathematical. Selling at $88k is not “risk management.” It is almost certainly a miscalculation of historic scale. The data shows you are not avoiding a crash you are exiting a supercycle at the point where it is most likely just beginning.

@TheAvaxCard For Bulgaria when?

Your world, powered by Avalanche. 🔺

@TedPillows Ted, can you explain why you insist we're in a bearish cycle?

A liquidity grab in the 100–102k zone seems likely prior to resuming the downside structure. For that reason, I’d avoid committing fully to short positions here.

@QuintenFrancois Admirations for the things you say! I respect young and smart people like you, who are becoming increasingly rare.

🚨 RECORD BLACK FRIDAY 🚨 Americans spent 11.8 billion dollars online in one day, the most in history. A $2,000 tech toy in a Black Friday sale gets you praise. A $2,000 Bitcoin buy in a crash gets you mocked. That mindset difference is why most people never escape the rat race. Everyone loves a sale, until it is on an asset that could change their life. Society programmed you to consume, not to build wealth. That programming keeps you broke.

@seth_fin Greed is stronger than them. But the most interesting thing is how they didn't learn... Using leverage in an unregulated market is complete madness.

There is truly something wrong with these degens. Both these liquidation clusters will get grabbed this weekend.

@Washigorira Don't you think the upper end of the megaphone pattern could be tested? Everyone is expecting a bear market, and teams of psychologists working for the major exchanges are monitoring sentiment.

#Bitcoin Liquidity Game💲 Most major liquidity pools have already been taken. Yesterday, #BTC reacted nicely at the breaker block (a failed order block that flips into a reversal zone). If a relief rally were to occur, this is the area I’d expect it to originate from. If it fails, the next liquidity pool sits below $74.5k.

@QuintenFrancois Bravo! Perfect, short and clear! I hope more people understand your message.

Bitcoin dips -30% People’s reaction: extreme fear Black Friday -30% sale on a new iPhone People’s reaction: take my money This is why most people stay poor They buy liabilities on sale and sell assets on fear, the exact opposite of how wealth is built

90% of people on X are yelling: “Crypto is dying.” “Bitcoin is dying… again” (I’ve lost count how many times already). Here’s the truth: • No leverage in an unregulated market. • No borrowing to buy crypto. • No greed. • Spot only — and only what you can afford to lose.

@mrofwallstreet Why did you change your mind so abruptly? While you were encouraging people that the bull run wasn't over.

#Bitcoin cycle top is in at 126k Next big move is to 74-82k level Final target is 54-60k in Q4 2026

@JRambo88 @TedPillows People want to get rich quick and easy. They enter an unregulated market with margin, which is pure gambling.

@jipabg @TedPillows IMO not advice. I am still buying. If go lower I will buy even more

Are you buying?

@QuintenFrancois @ether_fi I use the KuCoin card, Exodus and Ledger also released cards.

💳Payment cards & neobanks tier list 💳 Based on which ones I owned. Make sure to bookmark to come back to this. S: @ether_fi: the most complete neobank experience (save, grow and spend) with amazing perks. Even the basic tier gets 3% cashback, hotel discounts, $10ks of purchase protection, lounge access, etc. Non-custodial! My go-to right now. God-tier referral program too. ether.fi/refer/quinten A: @useTria: the closest competitor to Etherfi. I love the UI but not the experience - yet. Because lots of things are still changing. Great perks (0% deposit fee, 0% fx fee for all tiers & up to 6% cashback for a $250 per year card). Very promising & also non-custodial. Great referral program too. app.tria.so/?accessCode=WU… @RedotPay: particularly interesting for remittances, since they offer different currencies and the conversion between crypto & different fiat. The ability to send fiat and get accounts for those is great. High spending limits, saving options,... Custodial & non-custodial. B: @plutus: it's already around for some time, yet never been able to really take off. The product is okay and the perks are plenty but small. There were some obvious problems when I was still using it that never got fixed. It's non-custodial though. @AviciMoney: great product, great perks, and one of the real neobanks in here. Also non-custodial! The only thing I miss is a clear USP. Why is it better than Etherfi or Tria? What's special about it? @binance: very handy that most CEXs have their own payment cards. Easier to transfer money in and out of the account. Used to be my go-to last cycle. But because of regulations it wasn't working for me anymore. Same problem other very big crypto platforms have: too big means too much regulations and that comes with heavy KYC and uncertainty if you can use the product or not. Obviously custodial too. C: @MetaMask: I find it a weird experience to use the MetaMask card via MetaMask. Feels very unnatural and unappealing to me. Non, custodial. @Bybit_Official: Same problems as Binance. Couldn't use it at some point anymore, and asked more and more questions about my income and wealth in order to be able to continue using it. I found the Binance card more user-friendly with better perks (because I had $BNB I had a high cashback). Custodial. D: @cryptocom I used this one for years, but it gets too complicated very quickly with the regulation-heaviness that comes with their size. Perks are pretty much gone for basic tiers as well (0% cashback for basic tier). Became too big to still be attractive and be able to give nice perks. Also it is custodial.

@yifan030422 @100trillionUSD The small fish and the exchanges sell, the big players only buy. That's the game.

@100trillionUSD How do you explain the price drop?

I see stories about "old whales dumping bitcoin", but the data does not support those stories. Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale. And some 2017-2023 sellers. But that's it, business as usual.