John Pfeffer

I just published the latest version of “An (Institutional) Investor’s Take on Cryptoassets” medium.com/john-pfeffer/a…

Very cool from my freinds @AlpenLabs

@jdorman81 Actually, @jdorman81 , the strongest public market play on the tokenisation of everything is @Securitize , which be trading very soon under the $secz ticker following its merger with $cept (Cantor SPAC, whose shares anyone can buy now). @mdudas

Crypto really in an existential crisis now. Everything we thought would happen on blockchain is now happening, but little if any of the value accrues to any stocks or tokens in our ecosystem. Fat protocol thesis is long dead BTC has nothing to do with ANY of the actual blockchain growth engines (no exposure to growth of stablecoins, DeFi or RWA tokenization). Continue to think a handful of DeFi tokens, token launchpad companies, and GLXY stock are the only clear winners from this trend — when all assets are on onchain, DeFi goes from niche experiment to the full financial plumbing engine

@philpfef Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance is a must-read book for anyone and especially for builders. It was and is a key building block in my philosophy of life. So glad you liked it. I knew you would. And please be careful on that bike @philpfef ! 🤗

I haven’t read philosophy in some time; high Quality way to end the year. Thank you to @jlppfeffer for the recommendation Also pictured: my cycle last night, with a snapped clutch handle that I’m replacing today

Building on your challenge: assuming there are property rights, an essential and interesting question as we approach the Singularity will increasingly be what will be valuable (and what will the machines value).

@ArthurB That's conjecture. And it's analogous to Pascal's Wager. No downside to having wealth and infinite upside to having it if it turns out that there are property rights. And there's one asset that is seizure resistant and doesn't depend on external property rights. #bitcoin

What if the biggest (and most irreparable) shift in relative wealth in our lifetimes and for many lifetimes to come ends up being the shift of relative wealth from those who spent the entire Singularity calling it a bubble to those who saw the Singularity for what it is and simply geared their professional lives and their investment portfolios to benefit from it?

#Bitcoin over the last 17 years was good training for this.

@krugermacro @donnelly_brent Economist running a bearish cover is very bullish. The Economist is the British Jim Cramer. Perfect counter-signal. Plus we have the McRib going for us.

The Economist just went bearish check this out @donnelly_brent

I think I accidentally witnessed a historic speech

@AFDudley0 @nvidia Hi Rick, SMR (and anything nuclear) have been a great trade over the last months for good reason, but I don't have any unique insights.

@jlppfeffer @nvidia This is interesting, thanks. Have you looked into Small Modular Reactors at all?

Investors are fretting over the scale of and returns on AI capex. There are concerns about it beginning to be financed by debt and the prospect of capital to finance it simply running out. Half of that capex is NVDA’s gross margin. Simple maths: ~66% of data centre capex is GPUs and NVDA has 75% gross margins. Let’s start from the premise that humanity should build AI. That powerful AI is a good and valuable thing. @nvidia $nvda

Another advantage of @nvidia exchanging compute for equity in AI model-builders and users is that it creates a powerful, long term compounding effect for $nvda shareholders and protects them against the risk that NVDA’s moat and pricing power weaken over time if and as compute commmoditises. Any future declines in margins and market share would be more than offset by the value of NVDA’s ownership in the AI downstream.

.@Nvidia trading compute-for equity would also greatly help to convert the “problem” of rapid GPU obsolescence into the virtue of rapid progress in accelerated compute efficiency. 75% of the GPU obsolescence “problem” is $NVDA ‘s gross margin. By converting that gross margin into equity in compute users (AI labs, etc.), incentives across NVDA and compute users / AI labs are much more aligned.

The healthiest way to finance that would be for @nvidia to equitise its hold over the key ingredient to building AI by taking equity for compute, and end up owning a big chunk of the AI industry. The capex to be funded falls from USD x trillions to USD x/2 trillions. The ill effects and risks of funding this capex with debt and sucking equity capital from everything else are mitigated. And $NVDA investors are rewarded by the prospect of owning the most valuable company in the world that owns the biggest chunk of the most valuable technology ever in the future. It’s also much more likely that humanity actually builds its AGI/ASI that way rather than running out of capital and crashing the markets before it gets there. Interestingly, if this line of reasoning holds, the concerns about circular financing such as the OpenAI / NVDA deal are not only exactly wrong but we should want NVDA and the various users of compute to do much more compute-for-equity deals.

Remember: you should just HODL Bitcoin. But if you must trade...😎 @klyra from my dear friend @diogenes

@MikeCautillo Exactly. The narrative that stable coins and asset tokenisation are going to make ETH, SOL, whatever more valuable is nonsense.

@jlppfeffer Indeed & perhaps why Circle & Tether have already decided to move away-building own L1 solution as Stripe & Google have also elected to do. x.com/MikeCautillo/s…

So if/when this fantasy about wall street tokenising every asset comes true, why is that you're bullish value capture for any of the respective underlying tokens anon?

@MikeCautillo So what will the impact of Robinhood tokenising assets on Ethereum the protocol be on the value of ETH the asset? Butkus.

@MikeCautillo Rather, they’ll tokenise on the cheapest protocol and ultimately on their own L2s. Witness Robinhood. They launched their first tokenised assets on Arbitrum and announced that that is a temporary measure until they develop their own L2 on Ethereum.