Sir Hero

Crystal Dynamics is facing its fourth round of layoffs in less than a year. 20 people are affected. kotaku.com/tomb-raider-re…

Vladimir Putin installed former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder as chairman of Nord Stream AG almost immediately after Schröder left office in 2005. Later, Schröder also joined the boards of Russia’s energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom. At the same time, Germany and much of Europe moved to shut down their nuclear ☢️ power plants…decisions that ensured dependence on Russian gas. Europe fell for Moscow’s scam completely. Now we see press conferences praising the virtues of nuclear energy from many of the same leaders who previously supported shutting it all down. These press conferences serve as affronts to our basic sensibilities after 20+ years of these ‘leaders’ playing a main role in the scam itself. Europe needs pragmatic energy policy: reduce strategic dependence, invest in reliable domestic power (including nuclear ☢️) and avoid simply replacing one dependency with another. @vonderleyen should certainly step down…

@BodenPJ Inför 2025 låg förväntningarna på svenska small caps runt 20% också

Enligt SHB växte vinsten för marknaden inte speciellt mycket alls under 2025 men skall ta fart under 2026 (den bästa på många år) och allra mest för small caps. Förmodligen blir det nedrevideringar så det gäller hålla tungan rätt i mun

Honestly, Ben Affleck actually knowing AI and the landscape caught me off guard, but as a writer, makes sense. Great takes across the board.

This period of time in SaaS reminds me of the living hell that is running a hedge fund when a sector dies and you have exposure. 1) You wake up, reach for your phone, see your stocks are down pre-market for the fifth day in a row on no news. Good morning! Go get a bacon / egg / cheese and coffee from a deli - this will be the only good thing about your day and you know it. 2) Enter the office and your SaaS analyst has a grimace on his face. You don't want to have the same conversation you've had in your head and with him 30x a day for the past week so you just go eat your breakfast at your desk while reading news / research. 3) Your analyst comes in and you have the 121st version of the conversation. No new insights. You can sense he is beaten up so you go through 50 mental model / frameworks but neither clarity nor comfort arrives. 4) Morning meeting with the investment team. Someone will invariably ask "So what's our view on this sector?" [meaning the sector that is equal to hell on earth right now]. This kicks off a conversation in which the other analysts who know absolutely nothing about the sector in question will start by asking gently probing questions of you and the analyst. This escalates to unanswerable questions that people only have the nerve to ask when a sector is dead. You have to graciously entertain these questions because the stocks are down so apparently anything goes. You start thinking that everyone in the room is stupid including and maybe mostly you. After 20-30 min of abuse (maybe more) and at the point where you literally have no clue what you're even talking anymore ("when will this turn?), someone will mention that their buddy works at a rival fund where the PM sold the entire sector earlier that week. Another analyst will then mention "That fund is really smart" (implying you are stupid with which you agree wholeheartedly). 5) Meeting over. Now you and your analyst have another conversation, and you can see the fight leaving his body. You wonder how his physical body remains upright seeing as the spine is dissolving in real time but then realize you're not a doctor because you're not smart enough. Anyways, this chat may or may not culminate with the suggestion that "maybe we should take some off or just come back later". At this point, your brain floods with the history of your interactions including how the two of you have patiently been waiting for a "buying opportunity" JUST LIKE THIS. And now that it is here, didn't immediately go up, and, in fact, went down further, you are having to contemplate trimming or selling. You restrain yourself from smashing something but also understand your analyst who doesn't want to destroy his year by January 16th and die like this. Who does? 6) At this point, you realize you are simultaneously fighting 1) the market, 2) your primary analyst, 3) your other analysts, 4) your competition including QQQ which only goes up. And you feel very, very alone in this investment. No joke, this part truly sucks. Most times, you probably trim some of whatever is hurting. Because at least you did something. And if it all goes to hell, you can sell more and say / feel you took the right action. And if it goes higher, well, at least you somewhat stayed. Honestly, at this point, no one will give you any credit for your actions anyways and you're just going to get whatever potential discredit results. It rarely pays or is feasible to be the hero here. 7) Day is almost over. 10 minutes to close or maybe right after, your largest, most "proactive" institutional investor like Blackstone will email "Hey - got a second to chat about Saas?". Or maybe your most unsophisticated investor. Usually both. So then you hop on the phone and explain what you know, what you think and what you did or plan to do. This is the point where having a 10 out of 10 investor like Blackstone helps because they are professional and get it so long as you are sticking to your process. 8) Go workout and feel a bit better. Go home and try to be present with the family for a bit. Then whiskey time and mentally go over everything again. Alone. To make sure you hopefully aren't impairing capital permanently and, if so, have a plan. And that plan is to fire everyone and become a monk. [To my prior SaaS analyst and team, this is not really about you. I mean, you probably did this in some shape or form to me on many occasions. But it's ok. Everyone is doing what they think is best / most helpful at the moment. And I probably did the same thing when I was in your shoes. Just trying to laugh about team investment dynamics during meltdowns and grateful I only have to answer to myself during this SaaS drawdown. So much simpler! Hope you all are well].

Michael Burry : The secret to Google search was always how cheap it was, so that informational searches that were not monetizable (and make up 80% or more) did not pile up as losses for the company. I think this is the fundamental problem with generative AI and LLMs today—they are so expensive. It is hard to understand what the profit model is, or what any one model’s competitive advantage will be—will it be able to charge more, or run cheaper? Perhaps Google will be the one that can run cheapest in the end, and will win the commodity economy that this becomes.

This is probably one of my favorite clips from Stanley Druckenmiller. Listen to it at the start of every new year "We have always believed that January 1 is when the house starts. I think this is the reason we have not had a down year. When I am up, I will play much more aggressively. I see a lot of managers get up 20% and say I want to book my year, I made my high watermark, lets go to the beach. I am the opposite. Frankly I learned a lot of that from George [Soros]. If you are up 20 or 30%, you are playing the house money, thats when you try to get up 60 or 70%."

@financeamir @alden_niklas @lejooon Så du menar att det är okej att skriva negativt om andra case så länge man själv sticker ut hakan på andra case man själv har exponering mot, men inte om man inte har det?

@alden_niklas @lejooon jag om någon har skrivit negativt om andra case. Jag har dock inte lagt timmar på det för jag tjänar inte pengar på det då jag aldrig går kort. Han får gärna fortsätta med det om han vill. Min poäng är att han sticker aldrig ut hakan på något han själv har exponering mot.

Den här återkommande härskartekniken skadar småsparare och jag vill hävda att den kostat många väldigt mycket under 2021-2023 i $EVO samt senast $VERV bland annat. Det är inget konstigt att lyfta frågetecken och risker kring bolag när de ofta målas med bred pensel offentligt.

Roger Federer broke the internet with one statistic that will change how you see every setback in your life. 1,526 singles matches. Won almost 80% of them. 20 Grand Slams. 103 titles. Now answer honestly: What percentage of total points do you think he won across his entire career? 70%? 65%? 60%? Try … 54%. He lost literally almost EVERY SECOND POINT he ever played for 24 years. And still became one of the greatest of all time. Watch him explain it himself (2:07 of pure life-changing wisdom): “In tennis, perfection is impossible… When you lose every second point on average, you teach yourself to say: ‘Okay, I double-faulted — it’s only one point.’ ‘Okay I got passed at the net — it’s only one point.’ Even a screaming overhead smash that ends up on SportsCenter Top 10… still just one point. So when you’re playing your point, it has to be the most important thing in the world. The moment it’s over — it’s behind you. That mindset frees you to attack the next point, and the next, and the next with absolute intensity and clarity.” Then he looked at the crowd and said the line that hit a billion people in the soul: “The real sign of a champion is not that they win every point. It’s that they lose again and again and again… and have learned how to deal with it. Negative energy is wasted energy. Cry it out if you have to. Then force a smile. Move on. Be relentless. Adapt. Grow. Work harder — and work smarter.” Save this post. The next time you lose a deal, bomb a presentation, get ghosted, miss a deadline, or just have “one of those days” — come back here and read it again. You’re not falling behind. You’re just in the 46%. And the 46% is exactly where every single legend has spent most of their career. Keep playing the next point. (full 2:07 clip — sound on)

@10_ch_10 I eftermiddag skriver du att du är lång $PDX ? Enligt källor har du köpt. Börjar bli löjligt #pumpanddump @NemCapSE

Så att gå in tungt på måndag bara baserat på kritikerrecensionerna är inget jag gör. Visar det sig att spelet går hem hos spelarna på tisdag köper jag hellre till ett lite högre pris på onsdag än riskerar att ligga över ännu en trasig release.

Det har börjat trilla in recensioner för EUV och det ligger i nuläget 4 poäng högre än Victoria 3 på OC och 3 på MC. Jag har plöjt en del recensioner och justerar upp mitt bear case till 500k ex i år, base 700k och bull 1m. Det finns dock en hel del orosfaktorer. $PDX

@10_ch_10 välkommen till 700k klubben

@10_ch_10 Om detta är din short-tes så säger jag GLHF. Hade varit mer intressant om du hade en vy på uppkommande expansionerna på CS2 och CK3 plus EU5, det är det som kommer driva aktien

@jnsson_simon Med vilken vinstmarginal? Och deras första projekt nu under PDX är Surviving Mars Remastered som i princip har 0 följare på Steam och fansen kallar det en scam på Steam-forumen. Det borde fortfarande ligga periodiserat under PDX och vara en av deras 9 core-titlar. Kommer sälja 0.

I've sold off the last of my position in $FDEV.L today, following the "never hold over release" rule, with Jurassic World Evolution 3 coming tomorrow. It's currently at #13 on GTS which is okay but the high price tag combined with being an unnecessary sequel makes me wary.

@10_ch_10 Gissningsvis tjänar de runt 0 tills de eventuellt har en framgång. Delar av kostnaderna kapitaliseras (det mesta ligger redan i rullande capex eftersom de jobbat åt PDX sen tidigare) så marginaleffekten på 2026-2027 bör vara ~1pp utspädning från en marginal runt 40%.

@10_ch_10 Haemimont har producerat tre olika titlar på sin egen motor senaste ~10 åren som alla fått >80% spelarbetyg och sålt 0.5-1.0m copies var. Portföljen har dragit in >100m sek per år i sales. Känns lite som en gratis option på att de skulle kunna få fram en storsäljare.

@jnsson_simon Nuvarande strategi innefattar att köpa ett bulgariskt bolag + vekt IP för 150m så sent som för någon månad sedan som kommer späda ut marginalen, samt fortsätta finansiera PA2. Bolaget har inte lärt sig av sina misstag, vi får se hur tekniskt kompetent BL2 är… :)

@10_ch_10 Min poäng var att en sämre trend för JWE3 är sämre för FDEV än vad ett sämre BL2 är för PDX. Inte hur mycket PDX förlorat i ett projekt för flera år sedan som de erkänt som misstag och som nuvarande strategi och capex indikerar inte kommer ske igen.

@jnsson_simon JWE3 har kostat 1/7 att utveckla och kommer sälja över tid, likt tvåan, till skillnad från BL2. På lång sikt är jag dock mer bear FDEV (om man ignorerar den stora budoptionen) än PDX.

@10_ch_10 Du refererar till Kepler? Tror de ligger by far högst.

@jnsson_simon Den första anayltikerkommentaren kom idag, de hade förväntat sig 1m ex detta kvartal. Fler kommentarer och sänkningar kommer. Men PDX-sekten tror på att EUV är en ängel från ovan som kommer få >90% överallt och struntar i alla bolagets felsteg = ingen säljer, än.

Här kommer siffror som bevisar exakt hur stor flopp Bloodlines 2 kommer vara (från ÅR 2024). De 3 största spelen stod för 67% av kapitaliserade utvecklingskostnader = c:a 1000 MSEK. Spelet ligger runt plats 25 dagen före släpp och kommer krascha fort. $PDX

@10_ch_10 Om förväntningarna är så höga som du pratar om, varför är aktien inte ner på BL2 reviews? Reviews brukar ju ha minst lika stor påverkan på aktien än själva releasen. Jag skulle hävda att LBY var en större överraskning, och då var aktien upp en vecka senare

Detta blev en lång men nödvändig tråd. Påpeka gärna om jag har fel i min analys av situationen (men snälla, sluta säga att en engångspost på -700m+ är inprisad och inte kommer komma som en chock för marknaden/de icke insatta).

@10_ch_10 Naïve to think that anyone expected anything for BL2 in my opinion

Paradox has blown over 2 billions on crap like Lamplighters, Life by You, Prison Architect 2, Empire of Sin and now Bloodlines 2 but no one cares! It makes me crazyyyy. Is it Spiltan's ChatGPT algo buying or are ppl seeing this as a relief opportunity??

Reviews are in for Bloodlines 2 now and it's flopping harder than I even imagined. Paradox $PDX has plowed in up to $100m incl marketing over 10 years and 2 devs for this massive flop that will result in a record write-off for a Swedish gaming company.

@manadsloner @10_ch_10 De skrev i förra kvartalsrapporten att de ville göra återköp i närtid

@10_ch_10 det mest intressanta att kursen gick upp nästan 20% på 2 veckor. Någon visste långt innan att det blir återköp. Småsparare får all info sist känns det som.

Nu går det visst att göra återköp $EMBRAC. Eftersom de kan pågå fram till den 2:a december betyder det att någon split inte lär ske innan detta datum, vilket väl förvisso var rätt väntat. Lite trist att återköpa >100kr när de "borde" kunnat göra det på 80... men, men.