john tan
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The Terence Tao episode.
We begin with the absolutely ingenious and surprising way in which Kepler discovered the laws of planetary motion.
People sometimes say that AI will make especially fast progress at scientific discovery because of tight verification loops.
But the story of how we discovered the shape of our solar system shows how the verification loop for correct ideas can be decades (or even millennia) long.
During this time, what we know today as the better theory can often actually make worse predictions (Copernicus's model of circular orbits around the sun was actually less accurate than Ptolemy's geocentric model).
And the reasons it survives this epistemic hell is some mixture of judgment and heuristics that we don’t even understand well enough to actually articulate, much less codify into an RL loop.
Hope you enjoy!
0:00:00 – Kepler was a high temperature LLM
0:11:44 – How would we know if there’s a new unifying concept within heaps of AI slop?
0:26:10 – The deductive overhang
0:30:31 – Selection bias in reported AI discoveries
0:46:43 – AI makes papers richer and broader, but not deeper
0:53:00 – If AI solves a problem, can humans get understanding out of it?
0:59:20 – We need a semi-formal language for the way that scientists actually talk to each other
1:09:48 – How Terry uses his time
1:17:05 – Human-AI hybrids will dominate math for a lot longer
Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify.
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lived it, bled for it and learned it the hard way myself
dharmesh@dharmesh
Can confirm what @travisk said. Has certainly been true for @HubSpot. Figuring out how to make SMB work is playing in "hard mode". The good news is that if you figure out how to make the math work in SMB, it is its own form of moat.
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you made me press "1" at least 10,000 times in the 7 days 😂
Boris Cherny@bcherny
We doubled Claude usage on weekends, and outside 5–11am PT on weekdays for the next 2 weeks.
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john tan retweetledi

john tan retweetledi


The bar has been raised with 100x speed. The rest will follow.
Gergely Orosz@GergelyOrosz
When it comes to AI agents / AI tooling + coding, I hear an awful lot of talk about: Efficiency Iteration speed / PR output rate / lines of codes produced I hear zero mentions about: Quality Customer obsession This will bite back, and it probably already is...
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john tan retweetledi

@dexhorthy If you have profits, you show profits.
If you don’t, you show EBITDA.
If you don’t have that, you show revenue.
If there’s no revenue, you show users.
If no users, you show app downloads.
If nothing, you show token burn.
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