John Chin

Author’s copies of my first book arrived the other day! I’m very proud of this one — it took a nearly a decade to research and 4 years to write. It’s two volumes span 1,442 pages and weigh 5.2 lbs. Shout out to my co-authors — the twitterless Joe Wright and @DavidBCarter12

1/ Technology is always advancing. So what does it take to future-proof the law? My latest research in @IntOrgJournal argues that efforts to maximize legal clarity can actually undermine the law’s resilience. cup.org/4bX6mKJ

@RexDouglass There must be a German word for nostalgia for an imagined past that only existed in collective consciousness thanks to Aaron Sorkin?

@RexDouglass There are episodes where the distillation of issues is even clearer than reality it paralleled. The episode on PNTR/WTO accession for China, for example. It would be as good as a documentary for teaching what that debate came down to and how liberal theory of history won out

West Wing is this very weird cultural artifact for my generation. It was effectively our fork of reality during the surreal Bush years. And then the writing showed cracks and the actors showed cracks and we outgrew it. And then reality became even more surreal. And we forgave it.

@AlexDukalskis I enjoyed reading Dictating the Agenda. So did students in my Introduction to Political Science last fall who read it in their “book club”!

Thanks very much @johnchinphd for reading and reviewing the book!

"Linkage, Leverage, and Authoritarian Snapback." CMIST’s @johnchinphd reviews Dictating the Agenda: The Authoritarian Resurgence in World Politics, by Alexander Cooley and Alexander Dukalskis. Part of a book review roundtable in Asia Policy nbr.org/publication/al…

We keep saying China is on a collision course with the US. But what if China is not heading for war, but running a campaign? In a new article, Todd Hall and I argue China acts as a global opposition party, using institutions, coalitions, and messaging to win influence. Link👇

@JohnHolbein1 A majority of parents don’t have that outside option given budget or other constraints. So mainly it just undermine social trust / trust in public institutions, and may increase absenteeism (why should parents be diligent when schools will close for any reason)?

Someone needs to study how hyper-conservative public school weather cancelations impact parents’ willingness to send their kids to private schools.

"Linkage, Leverage, and Authoritarian Snapback." In the latest issue of Asia Policy, CMIST’s @johnchinphd participates in a roundtable review of Alexander Cooley and Alexander Dukalskis’s Dictating the Agenda: The Authoritarian Resurgence in World Politics nbr.org/publication/al…

New explainer from me, on understanding ICE as a paramilitary force, in more than one sense of the term 👇

@GerardoMunck Start the discussion here:

The Concept of Democracy In my graduate seminar today we will address the question, what is democracy? We will discuss two key books, one by Schumpeter, the other by Dahl. 👇 If we had more time, I would add several more authors (Kelsen, Bobbio, Sartori, Przeworski).

Although Russia has expanded its footprint in Africa in recent years, subtle but significant indicators of potential long-term vulnerabilities are emerging. @johnchinphd, Haleigh Bartos, and Aleksaundra Handrinos offer three signposts to watch for. smallwarsjournal.com/2026/01/01/the…

@RexDouglass Repression is usually demobilizing. Except, sometimes it backfires (societal collective action problem resolved after a tipping point). To be isolated / atomized in the meantime is very scary and it is not much consolation to know things could get better in the future maybe.

It's a collective action problem to the bone. You can literally wipe out a state, and the other 49 states are just going to watch it happen. Half of those happy it's happening.

One practical takeaway about state violence is that you are on your own for security. Violent actors can do salami tactics because 1) most people won't even know you're being hurt 2) % of those have no clear action 3) % of those actions are too risky 4) % of those don't care

@JohnHolbein1 This is the way.

The beauty of academia? Total freedom to pick which 7 days you work each week.

@Ayaan @UnderSecPD Really, a hand clap? From a woman whose bio starts with the defining fact that you “escaped the Islamic world and came to the West”?

@UnderSecPD 👏

Germany infamously retains very few Jews, yet imported barbarian rapist hordes (as an American, I’m allowed to call them that) under Merkel. Even today, Germany suppresses political opposition who point this out. You guys will say this is because of “Jewish” NGO tentacles or whine that Hitler (who destroyed his country) is treated too harshly by history. You will say this because you’re dumb trash who prefer to promote conspiracy theories rather than ascribe Germans (or anyone else) agency over their countries’ future.

@RexDouglass Your analytic clarity on ICE as paramilitary stands alone in my feed. Perilous times. Joe wright and I warned last spring that Trump could seek personalist security forces to repress in way regular military / law enforcement would not: theconversation.com/what-happens-w…

If this were any other regime in any other part of the world, we'd code this force as a paramilitary and we'd code these acts as state terrorism. I don't understand how everyone from social scientists to senate democrats keep trying to couch this in neutral 2016-ish rhetoric.

I harp on measurement, and "masked men go door to door asking for denunciations of neighbors so they can commit ethnic cleansing" seems like something I saw in a codebook once. People seem way too calm, including social scientists. Maybe I misunderstood the historical precedence.

@RexDouglass 👀

FWIW, I've always said that the risk of democratic collapse was low because the clown car of insane criminals weren't competent enough to strike a different bargain. The first crack came when Congress funded mass deportations. The second would be this. politico.com/news/2026/01/0…

@RexDouglass @JRice79294326

@johnchinphd @JRice79294326 It really does. I've described it as methodological vigilantism. I just ride the subway all night hoping to get jumped by a couple of asshole economists.

Finally getting around to writing this piece. Teaser trailer here...

@RexDouglass @JRice79294326 Beats therapy 😆

@JRice79294326 Awwww. Dismantling terrible empirics from aggressive used car salesmen is the closest I get to leisure time anymore.

Breaking News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette said it would cease operations, signaling the end of a newspaper whose origins date to 1786. nyti.ms/498YBB6

Are we nearing "peak Russia" in Africa? Read the latest from @johnchinphd, Haleigh Bartos, and Aleksaundra Handrinos in @smallwars to see the weaknesses in Russia's mercenary-first model and three signposts to watch for when the tide turns. smallwarsjournal.com/2026/01/01/the…