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For interested folks, the article is here: johnkroman.substack.com/p/hiring-50000…
John Arnold@johnarnold
An underreported trend. via @JohnKRoman
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John Roman
17K posts
John Roman
@JohnKRoman
Director, Center on Public Safety and Justice, NORC at the Univ. of Chicago| Team: @CaterinaGRoman @NPSCoalition| Essays: https://t.co/bZVOZ7REar|
Washington, DC Katılım Temmuz 2010
975 Takip Edilen4.1K Takipçiler
Wild. Sabalenka skips a tennis tournament for load management and the sport goes berserk. Have tennis directors ever watched the NBA? nytimes.com/athletic/71280… via @NYTimes
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This is really cool. NORC uses AmeriSpeak to estimate media consumption in the US, filling a rarely discussed gap: the media use of the hardest-to-reach populations is undercounted in conventional media studies. go.norc.org/4dm6x4l?blaid=…
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Most social science is about really narrow questions: did this program help participants? But that's not the question most people ask. They want to know why something happened. Why did crime spike and decline? Why is inflation high? Why did the North win at Gettysburg? Why did the Seahawks win the Super Bowl? The problem with a lot of today's research isn't that it is inaccessible or hard to read, though that happens too often, it's that too little research asks questions that are top of mind for the public and policymakers. 1/2
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@Noahpinion It's a promising idea, at least as an initial sorting mechanisms. All peer review is voluntary, editors are paid so little its essentially voluntary, it would improve the process if far fewer (and better) papers went to reviewers...
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Honestly, my sense is that >50% of academics always just faked peer review. A bunch would just skim the paper and misread it and demand nonsensical changes ("Reviewer 2"), while others would just say "Why don't you cite MY paper" ("Reviewer 3").
At least AI will read the paper!
Natalie Khalil@natalienkhalil
Headlines like this are alarming because we don't have a standardized way to quantify AI performance for peer review. We've spent the last three months working on a benchmark. We're going to make it open source and preprint it!
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Me: name something Nick Sirianni is elite at?
Son: Keeping his job.
nytimes.com/athletic/69741…
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John Roman retweetledi
.@JohnKRoman asks why 2025 was, in fact, such a banner year. He argues that the nationwide crime decline was not driven by changes in policing or incarceration but by large-scale federal investments in prevention.
vitalcitynyc.org/articles/how-p…
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How Prevention Reduced Crime and How To Get More of It, by @JohnKRoman open.substack.com/pub/johnkroman…
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Whatever the Bucks get for Giannis, and it will be massive, the Mavs could've gotten more for Luka.
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Just pointing out that there are a dozen explanations for this other than post-tenure laziness. Measurement issues (see the 15 diff. y-axis), department norms, volume, publication processing (e.g. time lags) are all endogenous, unobserved heterogeneity, etc.
Florian Ederer@florianederer
Research output after tenure drops off a cliff for business, economics, sociology, and other non-lab fields. But it remains high post-tenure in lab-based fields such as chemistry, physics, computer science, and engineering.
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@thegregchroemer @mattyglesias Crime reports count crimes reported to police. Whether someone is arrested, and what they are charged with does not change the number of crimes reported. It can effect other stats of course, but not that number.
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@mattyglesias Matt, any truth to this?
Gerald Posner@geraldposner
A lot of media have been duped by D.C.’s crime ‘drop’ It’s a magic trick: its progressive prosecutors routinely downgrade many felonies—especially gun crimes—to misdemeanors, call it reform, and then tout ‘crime reduction.’ Fewer felonies on paper, same danger on the streets.
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John Roman retweetledi
This week, we're asking if crime is an issue where you live and, if it is, what do you want done about it?
We'll be joined by the former Baltimore Police Commissioner Michael Harrison and @JohnKRoman of @UChicago
Listen live on Thursday at 8pm CT or catch the livestream.
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New data from the CDC shows homicides and gun homicides continue to decline. In fact, the downward trend in homicides is accelerating: -4.5% in 2022, -8.1% in 2023, -11.7% in 2024. And early 2025 suggests homicides are down as much as 20% this year.
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John Roman retweetledi
I have always felt that the "COVID-era crime bump" should have been treated as a consequence of societal disruption from COVID. Crime is down bc we are in a different moment.
And now @JohnKRoman has a brilliant essay explaining just that:
johnkroman.substack.com/p/explaining-t…
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If you are interested, you can read more here: open.substack.com/pub/johnkroman…
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Crime is down everywhere, but local explanations about their own secret sauce in successfully fighting crime are all over the place. This suggests that more than ever, crime is national. Increasingly, for better or worse, we are all in this together.
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@scribbllrr @ezraklein @DKThomp I'm not on twitter much, happy to connect on Bsky and discuss! bsky.app/profile/johnkr…
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@JohnKRoman @ezraklein @DKThomp (3/3) Abundance is a pro-growth framework in which all boats are lifted so much that we don't have to address inequality or imbalances of power. At the end of the day, it feels like you've awkwardly shoehorned a critical social justice issue into what you see as a trendy idea.
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New essay. @ezraklein and @DKThomp's Abundance provides a compelling model for criminal justice system reformers. The justice system is defined by scarcity that causes errors in both directions: too many dangerous offenders go unpunished, too many minor offenders are caught up.
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