bryan@BryzonX
I have just went long Harmonic Inc. $HLIT
Here’s my thesis:
As you may know by now $NVDA recently invested in $NOK to upgrade telecommunication networks to run AI at the edge on cell towers
They are using Nokia’s anyRAN software to turn their cell towers into mini data centers to monetize AI
This method completely overhauls the need to physically rebuild all of the current physical infrastructure companies like T-mobile already have in place with just a simple software update
Why does this matter for Harmonic?
Well broadband/cable companies have been left in the dust for the longest due to their network infrastructure being stuck in the 90's where they aren't able to process the massive amounts of data that AI generates
At GTC 2026, Comcast and Charter (the 2 biggest broadband companies) confirmed they are moving $NVDA RTX 6000 Blackwell GPUs out of distant data centers and into their local neighborhood hubs
They are transforming their networks into a distributed AI Grid
You can't just put an NVIDIA GPU in a hub and expect it to work with a 30 year old cable network
Harmonic has a monopoly on what's called "vCMTS" which modernizes broadbands network infrastructure with a simple software upgrade just like NOK
This means broadband companies like Charter & Comcast will finally be able to monetize AI in business and residential areas using $NVDA GPU's to do things like offer personalized commercials to individual customers using AI at the edge in real time
Here is the huge opportunity for Harmonic..
As of 2026, broadband companies have gone into a state of emergency because they are unable to monetize AI like they want so they are going through a MASSIVE CAPEX cycle specifically for 'Network Evolution'
Comcast and Charter are spending $22 billion combined over the next few years to build a "Smart Grid." with 2026 being the most aggressive as they aim for over 50% of their capex to be spent to speed up the process
This is reflecting in Harmonics book as they now have a record $570M in backlog, up 77% YoY and recorded a 3.5 book to bill ratio in Q4 2025 ALONE 🤯
A $1.2B market cap with a $570M backlog which is probably at $600M+ now since this was announced months ago
Underneath the hood you may notice that the numbers look horrendous, however this is because they just sold their old legacy video business to go all in their "Virtualization" high margin SaaS business which is now growing at 33% YoY at a 55% margin showing off some serious operating leverage
The TAM for Cable Modem Termination Systems (CMTS) is estimated at $5.18 billion for 2026 with only 15%-20% of the entire global broadband infra virtualized giving them a HUGE runway for growth in the coming years
Harmonic is currently only doing $450M in revenue. This means they have only captured less than 10% of their immediate SAM, despite having a monopoly..
However, I expect this to grow even faster because now there are actual government incentives behind this
1st)
Starting May 8th, the FCC is starting an initiative called "Delete, Delete, Delete" which is a legal mandate for cable companies to stop wasting billions maintaining 30 year old copper wires & old hardware hubs
This is freeing up tens of billions in maintenance CapEx being redirected to upgrading their network
2)
The gov is currently handing out $42B in BEAD grants for rural high speed internet. To win these grants, operators have to deploy fast. You can’t build a physical hub in a month, but you can deploy Harmonic’s software in days essentially paying broadband to upgrade their network
For the longest the biggest risk was their customer concentration risk
but as of May 2026, rest of world revenue grew 33% YoY and now makes up 41% of their business
Meaning they are no longer just a USA merchant, they are becoming the global standard for the AI Grid with Comcast & Charter leading the way for the rest of the world to follow suit
Lastly, the chart looks absolutely stunning
It is clearly inflecting as management is making it clear that they are no longer a boring video business, but a pure play global AI infrastructure enabler
Now trading above all monthly moving averages which are starting to curl up and now breaking out of this massive bull flag
I really like this name going forward and think the cat comes out of the bag in their next earnings
NFA.