John West Finance

@buildwithbob @belle_levesque @Farhan2IT @scubadang722 @TheJasonPugh Order of Canada notwithstanding, Julie Dickson did not get the recognition she deserved for helping Canada navigate 2008.

Harper inherited a $13.7 Billion surplus, which he quickly blew through. Then ran a decade of deficits. He then had a fake "balanced" budget ahead of the 2015 elxn by selling off GM stock at a $3.5B loss, taking $2B from the contingency fund, and underfunding Veterans Affairs.

There it is—Dated Brent (i.e., spot) crude hits $144.46/bbl, a new all-time high.

@GuyRandomNumber @buildwithbob @belle_levesque @Farhan2IT @scubadang722 @TheJasonPugh You may be old, but you are mistaken.

@buildwithbob @belle_levesque @Farhan2IT @scubadang722 @TheJasonPugh They did.. Harper was trying to follow the gold rush in the US and was blocked. Many of us are old enough to remember all of this

The oil futures market continues to price a big TACO. Physical oil quotes are sky high, but futures imply a significant improvement in supply in a few weeks. If the market moves to priced a much longer disruption — and see below — then oil futures will rise significantly.

Today’s ISM Services data reinforces the dual narrative of rising input prices and a resilient real economy. (The one caveat is that while the economy remains expansionary, the momentum wasn’t as robust as in previous months.) #economy #markets #growth #inflation

There are signs that businesses are increasingly reluctant to hire right now, even amid robust consumer spending. The employment component of today's ISM Services data came in at the weakest since 2023, even as new orders picked up to the highest pace in three years.

Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the oil-price surge as being a hit to growth more than inflationary.

Stagflationary vibe to March ISM data with prices paid (blue) surging and employment (orange) remaining in contraction

Turkey's central bank deserves huge credit for its transparency. Its data show gold holdings are down 120 tons since the war with Iran began. The central bank will have gotten around $18 bn from this to bolster its FX reserves in order to defend the Lira. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/are-central-…

The price of crude cargoes for immediate delivery has soared to its highest level since 2008, as traders react to a possible escalation of the Iran war and concerns about shortages of oil. ft.trib.al/XP0XCOd

BLACKROCK BETS ON RISING EUROPEAN YIELDS BlackRock is increasing short positions on German bonds, expecting a sharp rise in inflation to push yields above recent 15-year highs. The firm sees higher government spending on energy support and defense driving more debt issuance, increasing bond supply and borrowing costs. With Europe heavily exposed to energy shocks, inflation risks are seen as greater than in the US or UK. BlackRock expects German 10-year yields to climb further from around 3%. The shift in outlook—fewer rate cuts and potential hikes—has already paid off, with the fund outperforming peers as global yields rise.

The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year.

Good Morning from Germany, where private-sector activity is weakening as the Iran war fuels fears of stagflation. However, a relatively strong rebound in manufacturing has cushioned the decline, leaving the Composite PMI at 51.9, only its lowest level since December, rather than falling more sharply. Across Europe, the picture looks weaker, w/the Composite PMI dropping to 50.5, its lowest level since May last year, signaling that growth is close to stalling amid rising inflation pressures.

“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing higher.

Morgan Stanley: "50% of all stocks in the Russell 3000 are down at least 20% from their 52-week highs with many down 40%+. In some cases, stocks in areas exposed to private credit and/or AI disruption concerns are down more than 50% – i.e., certain stocks in the alternative asset manager, software, and business/info services space."

Nothing new here but the magnitude of the #Hormuz supply chain disruption is staggering.

Apparently, Deutsche Bank has a 'Pressure Index' that is flagging a de-escalation with Iran is warranted, and fast:

@BIS_org @OSFICanada Congratulations Ben, an excellent choice! Worrying that OSFI has lost three deputy superintendents in as many years, however.

Ben Gully, Deputy Superintendent of Canada’s Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions @OSFICanada, has been appointed Secretary General of the #BaselCommittee on Banking Supervision, starting 14 August 2026 bis.org/press/p260317.…

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for the rest of this year, betting on a longer disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. ft.trib.al/OPszgT7

One thing the Trump and Biden administrations share is a fear of high oil prices. That means we can't get $150 or $200, as evidenced by Trump's latest about-turn today. Important to look through the alarmist hype and remember the key thing: "oil is king." robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-wil…