Jonathan Bottiger

@traderchicago7 Punished option buyers —-

Market Update from Don Trump Just nailed it again today! ✅ Buy Stocks – Strong momentum, great entry point. ✅ Sell Crude Oil – Downward pressure building. ✅ Cattle going lower – Expect further declines. Best analyst in the market. Track record speaks for itself. Stay tuned for the next calls! 🚀🤪🤪

@DonMiami3 How long until UBI ? Can we have Amazon factories filled with robots in 3 years ?

Food inflation is absolutely ripping right now, nasty nasty purchasing environment for the 90% in the ‘i-shaped economy’ which may have to be rebranded T-shaped

@unusual_whales Who covers the Vance account at RobinHood? 😂

JD Vance: "The president doesn't sit at the Oval Office on his computer, on his like Robinhood account, buying and selling stocks. That's absurd...He's not making these stock trades himself."

@traderchicago7 It’s been challenging. The market never really gave the farmer margin like it did during UKR.

@jonbottiger @unusual_whales I literally am not holding futures … and early in the week jump in for couple hours … just stupid .. keeping options spreads

@traderchicago7 @unusual_whales Supposedly Milken and DJT are tight now because he gave him a copy of Barbarians at the gate in q4 ! Took him a couple weeks on audiobooks, but results look strong ! Remember DJT pardoned him ! Literally gave him the insider trader playbook. Wild

I forgot DJT pardoned Mike Milken! Things are much more clear.

@TheFlowHorse 1 million seats to mars and 6 billion people. Kind of like small float and enormous index inclusion. Trillions instead of billions. Still mind boggling ….

For months I have been thinking that the SpaceX IPO is a finish line for a lot of excess in the market, but now I am not so sure. It seems like it is the most consensus conclusion. The alternative is that the AI, Space, Robotics, and Quantum themes are the next once in a generation opportunity, and we are all calling the end too early into the race.

@unusual_whales Sell Beef sell oil buy stock market .. Best analyst 🤪🤪

Trump: "I am the smartest guy you're ever gonna meet."

WARNING: “We haven’t had problem in 15 years or more…at some point there will be forced reckoning.” A few weeks ago Fmr @GoldmanSachs Chairman & CEO @LloydBlankfein – a true titan of finance – joined The Master Investor Podcast and shared lessons from his life, including the American Dream, actionable career advice, what makes a great trader & lessons from the 2008 financial crisis with some worrying warnings for today. LESSONS FROM 2008: “If I was still managing the risk of a big institution today I'd be very, very concerned about something that could trigger [a blaze] and I think this is a good time to look for the spark. Could the spark be private equity? Could it be private credit? Could it be the price of oil suddenly doubling? It could be any of those things & the world might absorb that at any other time except we haven't had a problem in 15 years or more. At some point there'll be a forced reckoning.” ART OF GREAT TRADE: “Traders are a lot like good poker players. Over your life, statistically you're going to get the same amount of good hands & bad hands that anybody else will get but somehow the good poker player always wins and the poor poker player always loses. Why is that? One will play the cards better…get out of a bad position quicker and let his opportunity run in a good position. The future is very hard to identify, but I noticed the people who are very good traders are the people who react the quickest to changes.” CAREER ADVICE: “In order to do a good job, you need the enthusiastic support of the people who are your subordinates. I didn't always make myself so friendly to the people around me. If I'd known I was going to grow so senior in the firm, I would've been a lot nicer to people on the way up because then I would've had to spend much less of my time apologising to them. Once I got to those positions, I needed their support as I moved up the letterhead.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:49 The advantage of low expectations 5:10 Feeling insignificant 6:52 The American Dream 8:15 J. Aron vs Goldman Sachs 11:16 The art of being a great trader 13:21 Traders vs Investment Bankers 16:25 Memories of 2008 Financial Crisis 20:28 “You can’t recover from being dead” 22:26 Déjà vu today from 2008? 26:13 A reckoning is coming 28:28 US government debt risks 30:00 US economy has strong culture 34:10 London as a financial centre 36:22 I started life as a gold trader but it didn’t make me a gold bug 37:52 I am mostly in equities 39:10 You need support of subordinates not grudging cooperation 42:45 Suck it up and stick it out 45:27 Don’t get deluded by your own self importance 47:53 Worrier not a warrior 51:55 Optimism is generally justified

@traderchicago7 @SoybeanTrader88 3500 trades a q!! Just do what DJT is doing. Play the game. Cause traders trade and haters hate. Bought some 30yr puts. One week later 50 % less value !!!

@SoybeanTrader88 Wild how far things are getting stretched.. every one wants cheap good and high stock market.. will break a bunch of guys and new cycle will be created…

Stock guys have money.. and more coming … lower the rates let’s go.. steaks r to expensive and farms produce r food … fHow far this stretch is out the next year is wild … get back to work and plant pheasants and feed the cattle ..Restaurants r filled with stock guys .. 🤪🤪🤪

@DonMiami3 @Nostre_damus Melania is out of town !!

@Nostre_damus Nuke?

Holiday weekend & Trump's Son’s wedding Trump is missing both to stay in DC This can only mean one thing

@cb_catt 💪🏻⚡️💪🏻⚡️

Missouri corridor basis is widening. That’s the post. Lots of grain around. Piles need picked up. Precipitation in the past, present and future. Enjoy the weekend.

@GrainsGorilla @NicoAIQ Corn belt has enough moisture to get well past summer solstice. Gonna need something very adverse to happen in July. Possible. However statistically unlikely. ElNino long holders gonna be bag holders. SuperBagHolders

@NicoAIQ Markets tank next week! War ends. Commodities tank. Global stocks are robust. Supply chain will be fixed as well.

I use the same excuse when people invite me somewhere after explaining they’re short bc of usda’s global stocks.

@traderchicago7 Historically I am a large vol seller - 85% of trades. 15% I can be aggressive. I loaded up on 5:25 / 5:75N call spreads twice. I was fortunate to scrap out a little dough. However - IMO trade should have gone and it didn’t !! Wild - massive event an corn move was small

@jonbottiger Agree keep watching the spreads .. volume in grains and watching order flow is just obvious

Trump’s jawboning caps oil rallies every time. Crude starts a $4+ move above $100 on Iran risks, he says we’re “close to a deal,” and it drops $5-6. Algos & traders front-run it—long funds get wrecked, pattern builds: buy geopolitics, sell Trump headlines. I know 2 guys who sell every rally off his comments. Same as last year’s beef tweet signaled lower prices Friday, everyone was long, we shorted hard Monday at open, rode it limit down..Crazy times, but trade what’s in front of you. That’s the order flow. Fundamentals matter long-term; headlines dominate short-term. Cash guys took over cattle—expect the same in fertilizer & oil down the road I think Pattern recognition is edge fundamental guys with opinions will get wacked .. talk to a fund guy the r doing option spreads to avoid short term headlines … Bullying the oil down and watching this is wild …

Comment on grains I had been long Beans, Meal, Oil and Wheat in recent months Still long Rice One thing that gave me cold feet was that every "newbie" futures market blogger on X starting touting the bull cycle in grains It's rookie time Conventional wisdom I avoid $DBA

@JesseCohenInv Kind of a young Lloyd Blankfein

Jeff Bezos has been replaced.

@traderchicago7 Golden Age of ag!! You better be buying the family tickets to get to Mars. Next bitcoin. Supply and demand. 7 billion people. 1 million seats. Less demand for food on Earth. Maybe I can grow something there ?

DON Said sell crude … sell cattle.. Buy stocks … guys never wrong .. 🤪

Poly markets and ElNino grain traders are a match made in heaven.

@GRAINSOILSEEDS You talking for power generation or grains? ELNino isn’t a grain trade…. Ok Australian wheat ! You think people are on top of that storyline ? FOR SURE. NA and SA ElNino generally make for higher yields !!

EL NINO IS AMONG US! FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELT. 🌽#corn #soybeans #wheat

Zoe got her corn planted and the market went lower on the results @corn_porkNbeans I didn’t hedge in predications markets, but was helpful for me to smash on market after the progress report Good stuff. Traders Trades Haters Hate