jorge
348 posts


@unusual_whales How one president managed to fuck over millions is an incredible achievement
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FYI: I went long on $ARM at $139.
Genuinely a compelling long at $143B MC as markets shift more from training -> inference.
Then $ARM AI CPUs cannibalize the market for inference and $NVDA market share.
Especially as LLMs get more lightweight.
The projections to $25B/revenue (5x revenue) are already insane to justify risk-reward.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$ARM expects $15B in annual revenue from the the AGI CPU: "The company projects that the new chip business will generate over $15 billion in annual revenue" within the next 5 years. 5 times current revenues (~$25B revenue)... Arm probably deserves to be up more than 5% on this news if they're multiplying their revenue with a new product overnight?
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@JohnLoc18 no because actions speak louder than words... or taco speaks louder than words
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$AXTI is up 180% after my warning at $20.
$ONDS is up 100% after my warning at $5
$AMPX is up 67% after my warning at $11
Next, I am warning-
$NBIS will be over $200 by end of 2026
$ONDS will be over $25 by end of 2026
$AXTI will be over $150 by end of 2026
$AMPX will be over $30 by end of 2026
$AAOI will be over $200 by end of 2026
$TE will be over $13 by end of 2026.
$OSS will be over $20 by end of 2026.
These are extremely valuable company building next generation infrastructures.
Bookmark this post for later!
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@TrendSpider You are so fucking stupid ha
You know that NBIS is 1.5 years old company right?
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@TrendSpider They weren’t even public 3 years ago.
These accounts are hilarious 🤣🤣🤣🤣
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@aleabitoreddit It's honestly a really good company to pay attention to. We'll need to see what the DOJ says. If the company goes under instead of just the co-founder, yeah I agree 100% stay away. But it could rebound similar to the drama with $AMAT and $STX
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This is just my personal view that if $SMCI drops further than here, fundamentals probably outweigh regulatory overhang.
Large part of it was already kinda known from 2024, and priced in over time. Today was just confirmation of it, along with the scale.
That being said, there's clearly better opportunities out there.
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Everyone is looking at $SMCI smuggling billions of dollars of AI chips to China.
But nobody is answering the question:
How do I make money off this, and is it a good buying opportunity?
My answer:
If $SMCI drops much lower than ~$24 overnight. It like a buying opportunity at a ~$14B MC.
Everyone looks at the DOJ case and thinks Super Micro are cooked.
But two things:
1. The company itself looks insulated, so far (not named a defendant)
2. $SMCI chip sales to China state actors was already known (just not to the $2.5B+ extent), by Hindenburg short seller reports in 2024.
So a decent part of the China revenue stuff was already priced in, which is why $SMCI crashed from $100+ and is now trading at $24.
Now if we strip away optics and some material revenue:
-> $SMCI GAAP net income was $1.05B last year, and FY 2026 is estimated to be around ~$1.25B with some estimates going to $1.5B.
And then we rip away an est ~$150M in smuggled in profit out of financials: ~$1.05 billion -> ~$900M?
On a P/E basis, still looks relatively cheap as a growing company, maybe ~10-11x?
Now the downside:
-> Optics are still trash. You can add more trash to trash.
But it's still trash regardless, doesn't change much?
-> $NVDA distancing itself with $SMCI? (They already did in 2024).
-> $SMCI not named a defendant, but in the case SEC/DOJ goes after them, then lot of regulatory fees and possibly fines.
-> Maybe order cancellations, but if they didn't cancel orders for the problems they had in 2024, it looks fine now?
Now... Are there a lot better opportunities than taking this regulatory leap of faith?
100%.
Is there potential more downside from panicking?
Yes.
But if you strip away the noise, $SMCI as a company looks cheap ~$14B at roughly 10-11x forward earnings.

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