Josh
2.5K posts

Josh
@joshsetvin
FSU alumni🍢. Magic. DUUUVAL! Cannabis enthusiast. Business owner. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 $GME, $Bitcoin.
Colorado, USA Katılım Aralık 2021
154 Takip Edilen602 Takipçiler

"It's run by a bunch of losers..."
EXCLUSIVE: GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen hits out following his failed $56 billion takeover bid to eBay.
📺 youtu.be/F1dYGIKFPbc
@piersmorgan | @ryancohen

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Someone explain to me how Nashville, Charlotte, Miami or New Orleans make any sense at all to even be considered. Has to be a play for a bidding war here.
Brett McMurphy@Brett_McMurphy
Florida State & Georgia will play a neutral site game in 2028, FSU AD Mike Alford said. 7 cities - Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Nashville, New Orleans, Orlando & Tampa - are in the running to host the game
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@rnewton7777 I’m hopeful .
I have lots of mixed feelings.
But I’m still hopeful.
I can’t shake this simple thought - What if?
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This is about to be the longest post ever on X (formerly known as Twitter).
As with all my content, please don't like, subscribe, or share. I'm just posting in the middle of the night as I usually do when there are important events with Gamestop. And yesterday's Proxy probably represents one of the most important events we've had, so here I am.
First, my bias. I hold over 70,000 shares right now and run a covered strangle. Where folks were worried about my covered calls just days ago (26c and up) now they should be worried about my cash secured puts (22p) which obligate me to buy the stock if it is below $22 on Friday. So Saturday morning I might own more GameStop than I ever have in my life. Which is fine, I only sell calls at prices I'm happy to sell and puts at prices I'm happy to buy. But life certainly comes at you fast with GameStop.
So that discloses my bias: Bullish on GameStop but rangebound. That is simply how I approach the thing positionally to risk manage and make money. It might influence what I have to say regarding events, but I'd rather like to think events influence why I position as I do. In summary: huge bias. Doubt anything I have to say. I am very often wrong.
On Roaring Kitty: I don't know what is going on there. I find it all to be rather unfortunate and hope he and his family are well.
More importantly, the Proxy Filing: I am not writing this to persuade, but to hopefully inform (myself). I like to talk things through and have said before, I really made the videos for myself above all. Had nobody watched, I would have still made them and am glad I did. I learned a lot. And still have much to learn.
So here goes, my current thoughts.
Firstly, I don't know how I will vote yet. I'm still processing. I'm not hesitant or doubtful necessarily of Ryan Cohen, I'm just thinking a lot. I take the vote very seriously because it is a very serious moment for GameStop.
I like knowns. GameStop's situation right now is known to me. I can recite off the numbers by heart. 448m shares. Converts at 0%! 9.x in cash. BTC exposure. Operationally profitable. Pivoting US domestic and TCG. A fortress and well positioned for the next console cycle.
But Ryan Cohen is right. It's a dog. I can't believe I'm yolo'd into GameStop. I am lucky to have a really great store in our town, one of the top performers in the region consistently and the staff are awesome. I go in often. I've spent tens of thousands of dollars there and I'm not really a gamer. But somehow I've come to love this dog. Who doesn't love an underdog?
What Ryan Cohen has been saying, to me, is that it is time for this dog to change. And yes, I catch the connection to Roaring Kitty's dog tweets here. So maybe this is Keith Gill's long awaited transformation. I wish I could hear his thoughts like in his 2020 videos.
But, no, I'm not trying to persuade. I'm just trying to understand.
Is it worth taking that known dog and turning it into an unknown something new?
The biggest question I keep seeing asked is, What do GameStop shareholders get out of this?
And it's a very good question. I get the sentiment. GameStop shareholders have been unbelievable. Any corporate leadership team wishes they had ride or die shareholders like GameStop's. Willing to endure five plus years of drawdowns, massive dilutions, incredible volatility, and remain steadfast. Overcoming extreme fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Often with little news and less candid disclosure.
Well I must say that Ryan Cohen has been more candid in five months than in five years. He has said a lot and I believe he will be saying much more in the five weeks to come before the GameStop and eBay Shareholder's meetings. If he is using Carl Icahn's playbook as well as his law firm, and I believe he is using both, expect the pressure to increase week by week starting with tomorrow's interview.
So here is what I see Ryan Cohen and the board of GameStop saying, to me, one of their fanatic, although to be honest, often skittish household investors. He might even call me a trader, and I wouldn't really complain about the label.
I believe what Ryan Cohen is saying to me is, Newton, I didn't want to run another company. I built Chewy from the ground up as an owner and it was 20 hours a day of work. I started a family and I want to be a husband and father. We hired a team of execs to execute at GameStop and when it wasn't working out, we pivoted and I stepped in. I did everything I could to turn GameStop around. Cut costs, lean into TCG, raise capital into volatility. It worked even though everybody said it couldn't be done. And honestly, Newton, maybe you shouldn't have yolo'd on GameStop, but let's be real, I rescued your investment.
But if you want to see your investment grow and you want to see me function as I can in the CEO role, GameStop is just the cocoon, the beginning. I need to lever up for a minute and get my hands on something bigger - not a small strip mall reseller but a marketplace. That's my wheelhouse. I believe if you give me the chance I can cut costs again, lean into collectibles, and take eBay to 100b market cap. I can't do that with GameStop.
That really is the whole deal right there. Ryan Cohen is pitching that we abandon the known and enter the unknown. Go from a fortress of cash to leverage. Go from local retailer to international marketplace. Go from the Russell to the S&P.
What do GameStop shareholders get?
We get eBay.
It isn't free. It is trading at all time highs with a PE Ratio of 24. But it has positive EPS and can scale. And Ryan Cohen knows its parts and says he can pay off the loan, deleverage, and create shareholder value. He says he wants to roll his net worth into the business and be an owner for life. He is excited, he sounds genuine, and he's always said exactly as he intends to do. And I mean that - go back and read everything he's said or listen to everything he's ever said. It has all pointed to this moment.
So we get an enthusiastic fully engaged and excited Ryan Cohen as well.
Is that worth it to you? Is that worth it to me? To be honest, I'm talking myself into it quite a bit here and that really isn't my intent.
So let me put out there my issues with it.
Firstly, everybody knows how much I do not like leverage. I don't like gambling. I don't like top blasting stocks when the market is giga rallied. I don't like unknowns. I buy treasuries. I sell cash secured puts. I like GameStop because it trades in a predictable range on high volatility and I've made millions of dollars trading it. This changes everything. All models are most definitely wrong now. So I'm not a fan of that at all.
For others, they've seen the dream slip away time and again - the rocket takes off, fizzles, and comes back. And most of the times it has done that, there's been a dilution in close proximity. They see a pattern. They see a dream, MOASS, slipping farther and farther away. I can't speak to those peoples' feelings because as I've said before, I don't believe in MOASS (I believe in Jesus). To me, MOASS is an idea and I don't know if it can happen. So for me, I'm not voting on MOASS. Maybe you are, but what we are both voting on together is change and unknowns.
Yet... I see value proposition here. I'm not trying to be difficult. What if Ryan Cohen builds a personal stake on eBay now in an Icahn-like pressure move? I had said previously, if the compensation package is a defensive poison pill to ensure he maintains 20% control that is designed to free up his capital for an offensive move on eBay, that would be genuinely incredible for GameStop shareholders. So if he suddenly discloses a stake on eBay, I am seeing a lot of shareholder value in the compensation plan.
What if their sellers continue to make noise to their sleepy leadership that apparently has never interreacted with them? What if eBay's shareholders wake up to an activist with allies with skin in the game and start to make noise?
What if the madman does it? What if he really can cut costs, increase sellers and inventory, draw new buyers to the platform, modernize, create efficiencies, revolutionize live selling, and integrate GameStop locations so that sellers like me have a better experience?
Because I'm also an eBay user.
My first sale ever on eBay was against the TOS. I was underage and sold my Ultimate Online account for a few hundred dollars while in high school. That was almost thirty years ago.
Electronics Boutique and eBay. Two staples. The 40 year old virgin meme become reality.
But again, I really don't want to persuade. I just want to think and process and learn.
Can Ryan Cohen do it?
Do I trust him?
Am I comfortable seeing GameStop cease to become the GameStop I feel I very much understand and become something I don't understand? Do I want to own eBay? Do I want to be fully ported into eBay at an all time high?
I think that's what my vote comes down to.
Yours is up to you.
I would ask that you please respect that everybody has the right to think their own thoughts and vote their own way. Please don't spam how you're going to vote here. Discussion is great. Tell me I'm right. Tell me I'm wrong. I love it. But yelling at people how to vote I find distasteful. They bought the right to their vote when they invested just like they bought the right to the warrant. Respect that everybody will vote how they want and leave it be. At the end of the day household won't be the one that matters here anyway, let's be real. The big players hold too many shares and will determine the outcome.
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Prepare yourself for a proposition from $GME to increase the total authorized share count. I know that might make some of you uncomfortable, but hear me out because there's a very logical reason this is coming, and it's actually bullish. If you disagree or hate this idea, please give me the courtesy of reading my logic before you have a mid-life crisis in the comments.
Right now, GameStop has ~448m shares outstanding against 1bn authorized. That's a 44.8% issued-to-authorized ratio. Sounds like plenty of headroom, right? Not when you factor in what's already committed:
- 171.5m shares tied to RC's performance options
- ~43.5m shares from the $1.3Bbn convertible notes ($29.85 strike)
- ~77.8m shares from the $2.25bn convertible notes ($28.91 strike)
That alone brings the fully diluted count to ~741m, or 74% of the authorized ceiling. And that's before a single acquisition dollar gets raised.
So why would RC want to increase the limit now, while there's still room? Because good capital allocators do not wait until they are maxed out. They plan ahead, and there is clear precedent for this.
RC has shown you exactly how he thinks about this.
In January 2023, RC built a stake worth several hundred million dollars in Alibaba and personally pushed management to increase their buyback program from $40bn to $60bn. He told them they could hit double-digit sales growth and ~20% FCF growth over five years, but the shares were undervalued and the buyback was not aggressive enough. Alibaba listened and expanded the program.
He also invested the vast majority of his personal wealth into Apple after selling Chewy, becoming one of Apple's largest individual shareholders (roughly $800m plus at peak). When sources close to RC described his Alibaba thesis to Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, they specifically pointed to Apple's capital return program as the blueprint RC wanted Alibaba to follow. RC called Apple “the strongest business in the world” and cited “disciplined capital allocation” as a core investment principle he learned from Buffett. He bought his first Apple share at age 15.
The through-line here is pretty clear to me: RC is acutely aware of shareholder value mechanics, issued-to-authorized ratios, and capital discipline. He does not want to be forced into raises when his back is against the wall. He would rather have optionality.
Buffett operated the exact same way, and there is direct precedent here. Berkshire Hathaway has 1.65m Class A shares authorized but only roughly 523,000 outstanding. That is a 31.7% utilization rate, and Buffett has maintained that kind of headroom for decades. He did not do that because he planned to flood the market with stock, but because he wanted the flexibility to act when opportunity appeared without going back to shareholders for emergency approvals.
At the 1995 Berkshire annual meeting, when shareholders questioned whether authorizing preferred stock would dilute them, Buffett said: “There is no downside to this proposal. It is an authorization. It is not a command to issue shares.” He also explained that shareholders are only diluted if Berkshire receives less in value than it gives, and he repeated that principle in multiple letters and Q&A sessions over the years. In later commentary he went so far as to say he would “rather prep for a colonoscopy than issue Berkshire shares,” underscoring how seriously he treats actual issuance versus simple authorization. The lesson is simple: Buffett authorized far more shares than he ever used, kept massive headroom at all times, but was extremely disciplined about when and why he actually issued stock. That is the model RC appears to be following.
Now let's do the math on what $100bn plus actually requires.
RC has told us the plan: acquire a publicly traded consumer company “significantly larger” than GameStop. He has described it as “transformational” and said this has “never been done before in the history of capital markets.”
GameStop currently sits at roughly $11bn market cap with roughly $8.8bn in cash. To get to $100bn by 2036 (the 10 year horizon of his compensation plan), he is going to need significantly more capital than what is on the balance sheet today. My estimate: at least another $20bn in equity and debt capital over the next 3 to 5 years. And honestly, that might be conservative if the vision is $100bn to $500bn.
Think about it through the lens of how the Mag 7 plan their growth. Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, they are each telling shareholders and the market they are spending $60bn to $80bn per year for the next 3 years on AI infrastructure. They are planning capex 2 to 4 years out and asking for patience. The market rewards that kind of forward planning.
Now apply that same thinking to GameStop. This is not capex, but the principle is the same: how much capital does RC need to build a $100bn to $500bn conglomerate? The answer is: a lot. And it needs to come from a combination of cash flowing acquired businesses that can generate $4bn to $5bn per year, plus accretive equity raises and creative debt instruments (like those 0% converts).
If you assume $20bn in additional equity raises at an average price of roughly $25 per share, that is roughly 800m new shares. Add that to the 741m fully diluted count and you are at roughly 1.54bn shares, well past the current 1B authorized limit.
If RC wants to hover around a 60 percent issued-to-authorized ratio (which, based on his Alibaba and Apple track record, seems like a reasonable mental ceiling), he would need authorization for roughly 2.5bn to 3bn shares. My guess is we will see a proposal for 2bn to 3bn, likely the latter.
Here is the key point most people miss: increasing the authorized share count is not dilution. It is giving the board the legal runway to execute over a multi year period. Dilution happens when shares are actually issued, and RC has shown through his $35bn all or nothing compensation plan that he only wins if the stock goes up. His 171.5m options are worthless unless GameStop hits $100bn in market cap and $10bn in cumulative EBITDA. Every share he issues needs to be accretive to that goal or he is lighting his own paycheck on fire.
It takes money to buy whiskey. You do not build $100bn plus companies without capital. And it is far better to ask for authorization now, while utilization is at roughly 45%, than to come back begging when you are at 90% and the market reads it as desperation.
This is forward planning. This is the Berkshire playbook. Do not let it scare you.
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@Han_Akamatsu I was very excited and jumping for joy that some action was going to happen!
But then I got disappointed and fearful that I’m being dumb.
But now I’m back to where I started - I trust RC .
I’m going to ho pop some seeds and hang with my bees now …
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@Cobratate I just cooked some today. What a coincidence.
Stay blessed brother!
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GameStop’s bid for eBay is wild — and it might just work ft.trib.al/Ma01qQw | opinion
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@yoshinabbis I’m grabbing a cut of one that should do this . Crossed with Bloodline strain …
Should be cool.
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Will GameStop acquire eBay this year?
Our sponsor Kalshi’s prediction market puts the chances at 24% that a takeover becomes a reality.
foxbusiness.com/fox-news-tech/…
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