Joven

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Joven

Joven

@jovenis10

Ordinary natural person, in defense of common sense, American exceptionalism, capitalism, $PLTR, $NVDA, and $TSLA. Roughly in that order.

U.S.A. Katılım Kasım 2022
131 Takip Edilen22 Takipçiler
Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@CarloFabio1 @michaeljburry lol, yes! When your argument is so convoluted that you can’t even trace the logic to the correct conclusion, that means you are grasping at straws. When you make more $ from substack than from your own investments, that means you’re the fraud, not the companies you are shorting
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@321suomynona @michaeljburry Inverse @michaelburry has outperformed the S&P500 in 15 out of the past 17 years in my estimation. Listen to this big short dude if you want to sit out the next 15 melt up years just so you can say burry was right for 2.
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FakeHypeDebunker
FakeHypeDebunker@321suomynona·
@michaeljburry Looks like Inverse @michaeljburry > Inverse Cramer. Burry is distasteful because his Palantir/NVDA Puts have lost 100% value. He is worse than broken clock coz the latter can be right twice. But @michaeljburry had been right only once that too by luck in 2008. He is saying (1/2)
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@burrytracker So when the market inevitably crashes, will we have to completely ignore the 427 other times Michael Burry said the market was going to crash?
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Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟
Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟@burrytracker·
Breaking: Michael Burry said "it feels like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble" The last time the Knicks were in the NBA Finals, the Nasdaq peaked 9 months later and fell 78% History is rhyming hard right now: 1999: • Knicks are in the NBA Finals • Nasdaq up 84% that year • Tech was 33% of the S&P 500 • CAPE ratio hit 40x • Margin debt at record highs • Hedge funds had 31% of portfolios in tech 2026: • Knicks are in the NBA Finals • Nasdaq up 31% in 12 months • Tech is 32% of the S&P 500 • CAPE ratio at 40x • Margin debt at record highs • Hedge funds have 33% of portfolios in Big Tech
Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ tweet media
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@BullTheoryio So basically he's saying massive $ will flow into the market . . . therefore it will crash? Or what he really means is his short positions will crash?
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Bull Theory
Bull Theory@BullTheoryio·
🚨 MICHAEL BURRY WARNS THREE UPCOMING IPOs COULD COMPLETELY CRASH THE STOCK MARKET. Michael Burry reported that the upcoming public listings for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are going to pull more capital out of the market than the entire dot-com wave of 2000. Adjusted for inflation, just these three companies will raise more money than the hundreds of tech firms that flooded the market at the peak of the 2000 bubble. The historical data from 2000 shows exactly why this is dangerous for stocks. That year, the market saw 446 IPOs raise a record $108.15 billion. The Nasdaq peaked on March 10, 2000, at the exact moment this massive supply of new shares hit the market, right before crashing 80%. The crash happened because of a simple liquidity drain. When giant companies go public, big institutional funds need cash to buy the new shares. To get that cash, they have to sell their existing stock positions. This creates immediate selling pressure on the most expensive tech stocks. Today, the setup is identical but much more concentrated. Instead of hundreds of small startups spreading out the drain, just three mega companies are absorbing the market's capital. This directly impacts current market leaders. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion cloud backlog tied to OpenAI, and Oracle has 54% of its pipeline dependent on it. The same big funds that need to buy the new IPOs are the ones currently holding these tech giants. In the first quarter of 2000, the average IPO nearly doubled on its first trading day because cash was easily available. By the fourth quarter, capital markets dried up. Gross IPO proceeds collapsed 63% in a single quarter, and average first-day gains dropped to just 14% as companies rushed into layoffs and bankruptcies. When an unprecedented amount of money is pulled out of existing stocks to fund a single massive IPO wave, the broader market historically runs out of the liquidity needed to sustain its peak.
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@Shmee150 I watched your reaction video on YouTube in which you conclude that the Luce car is for the Silicon Valley, smartwatch wearing crowd. As a smartwatch wearer, I am offended. Even if this car were $64k, I would buy a Tesla instead.
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@DriveGreen80167 @TeslaZoa @electricfelix Agree that this shows that the biggest issue with the Luce are the proportions. Reminds me of what Jony did to the iOS 7 icons which were purposely mis-proportioned. After 13 years those icons still look horrible. The Luce design will age just as poorly.
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DriveGreenLiveGreen
DriveGreenLiveGreen@DriveGreen80167·
Ferrari, back to the drawing board! Save the Ferrari Luce 😮‍💨 Great design elements, disastrous proportions — somehow resulting in what feels like a completely misguided Ferrari. The Ferrari Luce, recently unveiled, may go down as one of the most controversial Ferrari designs ever… Thankfully, SugerDesign stepped in to fix it.
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@Owennfa After taxes, that yield is closer to 3.5%. OTOH you may also benefit from mortgage interest deduction (or you may not under standard deduction). Most people would be better off listening to DR over some account on x.
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Owen
Owen@Owennfa·
CALLER: I just opened a High Yield Savings Account. My $20,000 emergency fund generates 4.5% interest. That’s $900 annually without lifting a finger. DAVE RAMSEY: Dump it. Throw that $20,000 at your mortgage! CALLER: But I’m making $900 a year for absolutely nothing. DAVE RAMSEY: Debt is poison! Eliminate the house payment! CALLER: My mortgage rate is 3%. I’m getting 4.5%. DAVE RAMSEY: that’s not the path to wealth! REALITY CHECK: If your return rate surpasses your borrowing rate, hold onto the cash. That’s financial arbitrage. Every single dollar counts.
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Joven retweetledi
Sawyer Merritt
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt·
I can confirm that Tesla has officially started assigning VINs to people who initially ordered the $59,990 Cybertruck Dual-Motor AWD, which means first deliveries should start in the coming weeks! • 325 mile range • 7,500 lb towing capacity • 0-60mph: 4.1s • Bed with motorized tonneau cover • Bed Outlets (2-120v, 1-240v) • 325kW max charging speed • Coil spring with adaptive damping • Durable textile interior • 18’’ Wheels with all-season tires • 10" ground clearance • Weight: 6,537 lbs • Same 18.5" front center display as trims Absolutely incredible value for all the people who ordered and locked in the $59,990 price.
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Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful
Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful@kevinolearytv·
I recently went to my favorite @leica dealer in #miami and bought a Leica M EV1 and put my Summilux 21mm aspherical lens on it. I was sitting in the kitchen talking with my daughter @savannaholeary yesterday when the sun burst through the window. She grabbed the Leica and got this shot. Look at the fuc#ing detail even in the shadows. The camera is insane but its the Leica glass that creates the art!
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@Jason Not my idea, but we need a AI sensor suite "carriable" (vs wearable) on a tripod that digitizes your environment on demand. Opposite of Vision Pro, you have direct perception but augmented by what AI sees. UI/UX would be via airpod, watch, iphone.
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@factorydoge69 Contrast this with his Dylan Patel interview where Dylan suggests that Anthropic may have been too conservative and could be paying more $ for compute when their current contract expires vs OpenAI and others who locked up more capacity. I don't know but we will see.
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factorydoge
factorydoge@factorydoge69·
have seen multiple ai ppl say there there's pretty high probability openai goes bankrupt this dario clip from his latest podcast with dwarkesh explains the math behind it pretty well
Deedy@deedydas

Demis Hassabis and Sebastian Mallaby were on stage in SF today and here are the 9 best things they said: 1. "There is a 50% chance that OpenAI goes bankrupt in the next 18mos" -Mallaby 2. "Dario is the best of all the other lab leaders." -Demis 3. On Claude Mythos: "It's not really tenable for a private company to decide who gets access to the frontier of cyber defense tech. What happens when China can do this in 6-12mos?" -Mallaby 4. "Not all countries are pessimistic about AI. I was just in India for the AI Summit Modi had and they're quite optimistic there" -Demis 5. "The most exciting current prospect in AI is our work at Isomorphic Labs. AlphaFold is just one of the many problems we need to solve. We need 6 'AlphaFold' moments to compress the drug delivery timeline from 10yrs to a few months" -Demis 6. "I don't think of p(doom) as probabilities to throw out there. I just know it's non zero. Some people like Marc Andreesen and Yann LeCun think it's 0% and I think that's crazy" -Demis 7. On AGI: "I think of a post-scarcity world where on the bright side we will have an unbelievable amount of science but we will have to think of economic problems of sharing proceeds equitably. We will also have philosophical questions to answer and need great new philosophers" -Demis 8. On career advice: "Immerse yourself in AI tools. Everyone has access to tools 3-6 months behind frontier. Enormous opportunity lies in applying AI to unexplored areas." -Demis 9. On the future: "When I started building this technology, I pictured a future quite different from this. More like CERN researchers where we discuss ideas and help each other out and stress test each other's ideas. It's my job to help how I can to make sure we make more considered, more scientific, more rigorous and more thoughtful decisions and that will also involve social scientists and economists. I'm going to do all I can to try and influence the future in a note thoughtful manner. The decisions we make in the next 5-10 years are going to affect us for 1000s of years. But I remain very optimistic." -Demis

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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@mattvanswol I would start with the local tire shops.
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Matt Van Swol
Matt Van Swol@mattvanswol·
🚨#BREAKING: Dozens of Teslas and other EVs have now had their tires slashed by a masked man with STEAK KNIFE in Charlotte NC. Residents are now terrified to charge their vehicles at public charges after spree of tire slashings around the city. No motive is known...
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@geosci_nerd @michaeljburry Agree that Dwarkesh was able to get under Jensen's skin and expose a side of him we haven't seen before. But setting aside debate style, I think the substance of Jensen's argument prevails. Huawei is a formidable competitor, and banning Nvidia chip sales will help Huawei catch up
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Geosci_Nerd
Geosci_Nerd@geosci_nerd·
@jovenis10 @michaeljburry I was quoting Jensen from this interview. Asides from this quote capturing his arrogance, it is also concerning to a hear a CEO get that defensive. Not a great look either way. I wasn't actually implying you were a loser.
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Cassandra Unchained
Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburry·
Dwarkesh nailed it. Jensen squirmed and obfuscated. This was shocking to me. Every $NVDA bull needs to watch this with an unbiased eye..
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp

The Jensen Huang episode. 0:00:00 – Is Nvidia’s biggest moat its grip on scarce supply chains? 0:16:25 – Will TPUs break Nvidia’s hold on AI compute? 0:41:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia become a hyperscaler? 0:57:36 – Should we be selling AI chips to China? 1:35:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia make multiple different chip architectures? Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy!

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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@geosci_nerd @michaeljburry No, usually not till noon. Not sure what prompted this. I admit Dwarkesh is super book smart but he appears to lack the maturity and historical context to understand the likely consequences of his proposal. Disagree?
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@AlecStapp No table wobbling observed. Only the uninformed could conclude that a complete China ban on Nvidia chip sales would promote US interests. Agree with CFIUS/EAR, but application should be nuanced. Would Tiktok/WeChat/Alipay be so big if Google/Meta/Amzn/etc were allowed in China?
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Alec Stapp
Alec Stapp@AlecStapp·
Jensen’s response when pushed on export controls reminded me of this:
Alec Stapp tweet media
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp

The Jensen Huang episode. 0:00:00 – Is Nvidia’s biggest moat its grip on scarce supply chains? 0:16:25 – Will TPUs break Nvidia’s hold on AI compute? 0:41:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia become a hyperscaler? 0:57:36 – Should we be selling AI chips to China? 1:35:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia make multiple different chip architectures? Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy!

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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@wholemars @PabluGablu Both can be true. Rich will get richer & public will be beneficiaries. Open question is how we can prevent/manage a scenario in which a few individuals control a material portion of our economy. Huge fan of free markets, but how do we incent more people to play the game?
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Whole Mars Catalog
Whole Mars Catalog@wholemars·
Why do the rich get richer and the poor get poorer? Why do we have a so called K shaped economy? It’s a knowledge, intelligence, and skill gap. AGI will completely flatten that, becoming the greatest equalizer in U.S. history. Didn’t get into Stanford? Couldn’t afford a college tuition? That’s ok, your agent attended all of the world’s top universities.
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@Geniustechw Would he just renovate the ballroom to be more loft-y? POTUS hoodie merch could fund it.
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Genius Tech
Genius Tech@Geniustechw·
Senator John Fetterman is reportedly considering running for president in 2028. 🇺🇸 Would you vote for him?
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@Kantrowitz And the correct policy response should be: let's not hamstring our most innovative AI infra platform builder with short-sighted, Cold War era thinking. Reserve the best chips for domestic use, but let Nvidia compete in China to deflate their native development.
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Joven
Joven@jovenis10·
@pauldatx @phl43 Lol, @elonmusk please fix my timeline because mine also seems to be similarly constituted. Trying my best to swat away dumb posts but my fingers are getting tired replying to them with insults and sarcasm.
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Paul Damiano
Paul Damiano@pauldatx·
@phl43 You must have a bunch of Gen Z retards in your feed because mine looks a bit different
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Philippe Lemoine
Philippe Lemoine@phl43·
Most people on my timeline are saying that Jensen is obviously wrong, but frankly I don't think he is and, in any case, I have yet to see anyone make a rigorous case for the comparison with a nuclear arms race. This entire line of argument rests on a ton of very strong assumptions that people don't even realize they're making because they're almost never made explicit. It's okay if people are in favor of export controls, I'm not but I think it's something rational people can disagree about, what really annoys me is that most proponents of export controls seem to think it's a no-brainer and frankly that's a sign they just haven't thought hard enough about it, because if they had they would at least realize a lot of the assumptions they implicitly make are anything but obvious and acknowledge that instead of simply asserting them without even trying to offer a serious argument for them.
Steven Adler@sjgadler

Dwarkesh: Why would we want to sell China the materials for a serious cyberweapon? It's like selling them nukes with a casing that says 'made by Boeing' and claiming that's good for the US Jensen: Comparing AI to nukes is lunacy. Enriched uranium is a lousy analogy. It's an illogical analogy. What we have to recognize is that AI is a five-layered cake.

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Keşfet

@CarloFabio1 @michaeljburry @321suomynona @michaelburry @burrytracker @BullTheoryio @Shmee150 @DriveGreen80167