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Philippe Lemoine
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Philippe Lemoine
@phl43
Technically a philosopher, still has a PhD to finish. I write about stuff. Directeur de la recherche à @Hexagone_org. "At least he's pretty smart." (@bechhof)
Washington DC Katılım Nisan 2017
1.8K Takip Edilen66.1K Takipçiler
Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
I went back to the US to visit my parents. They just told me that our dog Madison ("Maddie") died last night. She was 16.
I'm devastated. We loved her so much. A Loyal, smart, & - if rather wilful and rambunctious - kind and loving dog. And part of the family in every sense.
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
The US fucked it out of orbit because its president is an easily led imbecile, and that’s on America. But it absolutely was Israel’s government and wacko Israel enthusiasts in America who bullshat him into it, and it’s them deliberately making the war as destructive as possible.
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
Sometimes I'm using Codex and I grow impatient because it's taking too much time to do what I asked or it made a mistake and I realize that it's probably how slave owners must have felt back in the days.
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@Howlingmutant0 @mymixtapez All I see is a brilliant entrepreneur who knows an opportunity when he sees one.
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Former prison guard may be thrown into the same jail he once guarded after being accused of smuggling chicken wings to inmates.
He was charging $20 per drum and $15 per flat. 😳
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
Seems like the war is going great.
Aimee Terese@aimeeterese
When a friend makes a decision, I support them with it, whether I would have made the same decision myself is irrelevant. It wasn’t my decision, my role is being a supportive friend. That’s how I see the war with Iran. I support Israel and the US. Not Iran. It’s that simple.
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
Imagine if you had told the people who supported this stupidity 3 weeks ago that by now the Trump administration would ask Congress for a $200 billion supplemental, that it would be seriously considering using ground troops to hold Iranian territory and preparing for a weeks-long campaign, not to mention the fact that we're in for a large energy shock persisting for months even in the best case scenario.
Anyone who is intellectually honest and not disconnected from reality knows they would have replied that it was complete nonsense, that you were just a panican, etc. But that's where we are and they're still pretending, not just that everything is going according to plan (as if there was a plan in the first place), but that it's actually going even better than they thought it would. It's just pure cult-like behavior at this point.
Disclose.tv@disclosetv
NOW - Hegseth confirms the Pentagon is seeking about $200,000,000,000 billion for the Iran War: "It takes money to kill bad guys."
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
The dollar has appreciated a lot in the past 15 years relative to other currencies though, so I think it's better to adjust the time series for that, because the purchasing power of a dollar was significantly less in 2011.
I asked ChatGPT to do it by using the Fed's Real Broad Dollar Index and this is what it looks like. It shows that, once the barrel gets over ~$125 (which I expect to happen soon unless Trump pulls the plug on this stupidity), we'll be about where we were in 2011 by that measure.
The difference though is that, compared to 2011, it's not just oil that is affected but also natural gas, fertilizer, helium, etc. Another interesting difference is that oil markets are fragmenting, with large crude and crack spreads, in a way that I don't think was the case back then.
Jason Furman@jasonfurman
Remember when oil topped $150/barrel in the wake of the 2011 Libya strikes? And stayed above that price for most of the next 2 yrs? OK, you may not remember because you probably weren't thinking about oil in 2026 prices back then. But if you were that's what you would have seen.
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This guy must be the dumbest person on the right wing American podcast circuit?
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
April 17, 2037: "Zineb Riboua, who now lives in a concentration camp after the conquest of America by China in 2028, explains to her fellow inmates that, although they don't know it yet, the Chinese have fallen in the trap laid by President Trump, who died in captivity in 2030."
Ronan@fitzr1122
Fascinated to see what she's pushing this week
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
One person's modus ponens is another's modus tollens.
The Honest Broker@RogerPielkeJr
This from Paul Ehrlich will make you think "If I'm always wrong so is science, since my work is always peer-reviewed, including the POPULATION BOMB and I've gotten virtually every scientific honor." Link in reply
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
A lot of people say that, after this war, Hormuz will no longer matter and Iran will lose this deterrent because Gulf states will invest in pipelines and other infrastructure to carry oil and gas to the Red Sea, but I'm pretty skeptical.
Just having a quick look at this, it seems that building the necessary infrastructures would cost well over $100 billion. But those infrastructures would only be used at a fraction of their capacity most of the time, because once the war is over it would be much cheaper to export oil and gas by sea through Hormuz.
Moreover, unless Iran is completely eliminated as a threat (in which case there would be no point in making those investments in the first place), the pipeline and other infrastructure would be vulnerable in the Gulf where the oil and gas would still be coming from.
I'm curious what experts on the energy market think, perhaps @Rory_Johnston or @JavierBlas can share their thoughts, but I have a hard time believing such huge investments, as opposed to adding some redundancy, would make sense financially.
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
Thank you President Trump for blowing up our energy bill, finishing off what was left of our energy-intensive industry, forcing us to spend another few hundreds billion euros in fiscal stimulus to counter the shock and, if we're really lucky, giving us another refugee crisis 🙏
Open Source Intel@Osint613
Hegseth: “Our ungrateful allies in Europe should be saying one thing to President Trump: thank you.”
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
I already retweeted something about this book a few days ago, but the author just pointed out to me that it was available online for free. I haven't read it yet, but I'm very sympathetic to the main thesis, which is that scientific discoveries are driven by the development of new tools and techniques.
The books seems to focus on the natural sciences, so I don't know if Krauss talks about economics and the social sciences, but I think a great example is how the greater availability of computers has transformed economics, for the simple reason that it's not really practical to invert gigantic matrices by hand.
LSE Statistics@LSEStatistics
📘 New book by Alexander Krauss at LSE: The Engine of Scientific Discovery explores innovation via Nobel Prize stats. 🔗 Learn more: doi.org/10.1093/oso/97… #LSE #Statistics #ScientificDiscovery #Research #DataScience
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Philippe Lemoine retweetledi
Once again, Pape-style arguments to the effect that Iran keeps becoming stronger as it's getting wrecked are idiotic, but it doesn't follow that the war is going well for the US, which it obviously isn't, because war isn't just about blowing shit up and killing people.
Legal Phil@Legal_Fil
I'm fascinated by the emerging consensus that having your navy and air force destroyed, your leadership killed off, and having lost complete control of your air space is actually evidence that one is winning. Crazy that we are only now discovering this new military strategy.
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What it's telling me is that everything is going swimmingly and that anyone who says otherwise is a panican and a pussy.
Justin Logan@JustinTLogan
Fox is burying the war story and that should tell us something important.
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