@Rory_Johnston Yikes. And that's before we factor in the months it would take to reverse even half those shut ins too
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Jrex
3.5K posts
Jrex
@jrex035
Came to Twitter for info on the Ukraine invasion, stayed for the "great intellectual discussions" lol
Katılım Şubat 2022
257 Takip Edilen95 Takipçiler
@jrex035 Realized production loss from shut-in production alone (at current levels, It'll probably actually get worse) would rise to ~350 million barrels by mid-April.
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📊 NEW OIL DATA 📊
The Iran War and stoppage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has cratered Middle Eastern supply and flipped the oil market into an all-time record deficit through end-March from Jan-Feb surpluses
Some Hormuz balance estimates on top of our normal monthly fundamentals reporting.
Check out the link to the full report in reply.
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@jrgoob @MrGlobal2025 It's insane to me, every blatantly fake pump on nothing but rhetoric gets bought, while every dip caused by lasting damage to regional O&G infrastructure is reversed.
Indices are down less than 5% since the war began. More than 20% of global trade has been strangled for 23 days
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@jrex035 @MrGlobal2025 bro it's nuts.
not the manipulation attempts. i expect that from this admin.
that everyone seems to keep buying it is wild. and ominous.
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Maybe even a special one
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
Trump: "They call it a war, we call it a military operation."
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@jrgoob @MrGlobal2025 That's their plan for every week, this strategy started 2 weeks ago. Remember when WTI futures hit $120 overnight only to fall to $80 on Monday, before bouncing back to end the day at $95?
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@ArielGonzalez_1 @MrGlobal2025 @Lesliestarr15 But not all the people all the time. Good luck to them trying to manipulate these prices lower forever, every day that the Strait is closed is another day closer to economic catastrophe.
Tick tock
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@MrGlobal2025 @Lesliestarr15 You can indeed fool some of the people most of the time.
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@AxeQuestions @RobLangton @dougboneparth Bro, the Trump administration *waived* sanctions on Iranian oil. They're making more from oil sales now than they did before the war
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@RobLangton @dougboneparth So you think Iran enjoys having all their defensive capabilities amd leadership. systematically destroyed while they have little to no oil money coming in to rebuild? Ah yes, truly a position of power to refuse negotiations from.
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Trump: We are having great talks with Iran.
Iran: We are not having any talks.
Dow +600
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@OilandEnergy That sure looks like higher lows to me, I think the artificial $100 ceiling on WTI goes poof this week
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Fool me once, shame on me...
Fool me twice, shame on Washington?
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@willowdesk @Rory_Johnston Everything I've seen suggests that it will take months for production to return to anything close to pre-war levels, and pre-war levels wouldn't return until at least 2027.
That's if everything ended today and traffic resumed to normal levels, which itself is questionable
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@Rory_Johnston Any estimate on IF strait reopens how may bbls will be lost due to the ramp up of the shut ins? (To get back to steady state)
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Current Gulf production shut ins alone, if held at current levels through end-March, will result in roughly 200 million barrels of crude *not being produced* over the first ~30 days of the Iran War
Not simply displaced supply, but barrels that would have existed that no longer do
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@MacroEdgeRes This was obvious from the beginning. The market keeps trading on rhetoric, so this was another attempt to jawbone markets.
Look at the actions, not the rhetoric. Everything the US has done in recent weeks shows *desperation* from Trump and Iran knows it
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Iran's Foreign Ministry: We have had no talks with the United States
#MacroEdge
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@LeapingIntoHell @DonMiami3 Bought a bunch of BNO today on the dip, it's silly not to at these levels.
This price would be pretty oversold if the war had ended today
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@DonMiami3 Every dip in oil is a buying opportunity
Every single dip
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WTI > $90/bbl
The amount of market fraud going on is levels that we’ve never seen before
Wow
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@IHeddaji @KobeissiLetter Reality will catch up, sooner than later. Oil already appears to be bouncing off the day's lows.
The scale of the crisis that's *already baked in* is hard to even grasp. So traders aren't bothering to.
Its just like with Covid, the market kept ignoring bad data until whoops!
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@jrex035 @KobeissiLetter Markets might be pricing best-case too early
What if reality catches up?
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BREAKING: US oil prices extend losses to -11.5% on the day, dropping below $87/barrel, as markets price-in a potential end to the Iran War.
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@g0lden8ge @DonMiami3 The manipulation will only effect prices in the short term, they can't keep this up forever
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@DonMiami3 do you see OILU, BNO and UCO just being completely screwed with manipulation from this admin?
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The Strait of Hormuz is still closed
It will take at least 3 months to get oil production normalized to any degree from the date that traffic flows normalize
Thank you for your attention to this matter !
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@airdooropener @KingKong9888 It'll return to new highs before the end of the week when the market realizes nothing has actually changed
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@SickoftheC @TheMaineWonk But it wasn't even a TACO. He's "delayed" the attacks on Iran and the Strait remains closed. Another 4 days with 20% of global trade shut down is a bfd but the market is cheering as if the war ended today.
Makes zero sense
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@TheMaineWonk We all know he saw the futures market and most importantly, the huge rise in the bond market and had to TACO
I’m sure he, his family, and multiple people in the Admin made 100’s of MILLIONS today on it
Comer should call Hunter back in. I heard he sold overpriced paintings 🙄
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It’s the same pattern over and over.
Big threats.
Manipulate Markets.
Policy decision on Friday after markets close.
Rinse.
Repeat.
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)@adamscochran
5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: * $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. * $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!
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Jrex retweetledi
5 minutes before Trump’s announcement:
* $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip.
* $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold.
More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close.
Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!
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@Rory_Johnston I just cant believe they managed to tank oil prices this much despite no improvement to the situation.
More than 10m bpd shut in, rising to 12m bdp within days, and no sign the Strait will be reopened anytime soon. Yet Brent is back below $100.
This has to be manipulation
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@IHeddaji @KobeissiLetter 1000%
These prices don't even make sense for the scale of the crisis as is, even if the war actually ended today. Which it hasn't.
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@KobeissiLetter This looks driven by headlines, not reality
Are traders overreacting?
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@Plooke2026 @Rory_Johnston Nope, Iran controls the Strait so the ball is in their court. That Trump is so openly, blatantly desperate does not strengthen our position either, it undercuts it.
Iran knows we're desperate for a deal and will exploit that to the fullest with their demands
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@Rory_Johnston Is the ball really in Trump's court at this point? He can Taco as much as he wants, Iran can just keep hitting ships with drones on the other side of the earth indefinitely.
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Again, Trump pulling back was always the base case, and this is what that look like. He always had the conditions to invent a victory.
Trouble is that this doesn't look any different from every other head fake, so market reaction feels overdone and at least right now the Strait still ain't flowin' 🤷🏻♂️
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRUMP SAYS IRAN WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL BADLY, COULD BE WITHIN FIVE DAYS OR SOONER -FOX BUSINESS
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