J. Safra Sarasin

What is driving market sentiment right now? Our CIO, Philipp Bärtschi, shares his views on CNBC. jss.digital/3TEsEYG Key insights: - Amid geopolitical tensions, we can expect limited global economic impact but heightened volatility - investors are taking a "wait and see" approach - Our current positioning reflects an underweight in US equities and a reduced exposure to US Treasuries while seeking broader diversification - With the USD's appeal fading over the next 6-12 months, European bonds may offer an alternative, depending on individual risk profiles and market developments

Outlook: Risk premium likely to remain embedded in oil prices amid ongoing uncertainty. A broader escalation (e.g. targeting Gulf infrastructure) is a tail risk — but markets are not pricing it in yet. Download the full report here: 🔗 jss.digital/4ef00qG #MacroFlash #Oilmarkets #IranIsrael #Geopolitics

Key risk insights: The main risk to the global economy and markets lies in a potential oil supply disruption, not the conflict itself. •Oil market isn’t tight yet •Brent is still below last year’s average •Taking Iran offline isn’t enough to spike prices •Blocking the Strait of Hormuz would change the game but that scenario remains unlikely — for now.

Macro & Strategy Flash – 17 June 2025 The Iran–Israel conflict has pushed oil prices higher. But with markets still expecting limited economic fallout, what’s the real risk? Economist @raphaelmarzys breaks it down. 🧵 🔗 jss.digital/4ef00qG