Igor

We just launched a 2-week vibecoding competition on functionSPACE. Grand Prize: 1 full year of Claude Code Max. Here's why we're doing this, and why you should build something. 🧵

Wrote about how prediction markets depend on user losses, and why Kalshi’s claim that their incentives are fundamentally different from casinos is a lie

Weather markets are as unpredictable as 5-minute markets in the early days after launch Analyzed 2mo duration sample: > In 15.6% of cases the winning outcome was traded at 10c or lower > In 8.8% of cases the winning outcome was traded at 5c or lower Translated to Trading lang: Buy cheap sides. You'll be losing the majority of times But the compilation of 100 traded markets will pay you more than worth of your total loss This is what pure math talks Of course the key is to get the lowest possible entry, otherwise this system may crash Might seem complicated but Polymarket already have traders using this pattern, you mau simply follow them Pinned few of them below

We are launching something big next Monday May 4th 2026. Sneak peak in comments ↓

We are launching something big next Monday May 4th 2026. Sneak peak in comments ↓

The historical bottleneck for institutional risk transfer is liquidity. The bottleneck for liquidity is having a price benchmark for each relevant risk (eg. WTI for oil). Kalshi has built a large community of superforecasters who are the best in the world at pricing risk. This enables us to have a price benchmark for a much broader set of questions that people and institutions face. Institutional adoption has started through ingesting these price benchmarks into traditional asset pricing model. While there is more work to be done, we're seeing a rapid expansion of data use-cases and integrations. The next phase is using price benchmarks to offload risk through block trades and RFQ. This phase is in its early innings but it's starting to take shape. It is hard to estimate the size of the market for risk transfer on non-traditional financial underlyings. The closest proxies are the re-insurance market and derivative desks at banks: - re-insurance ~700B - insurance-linked securities and parametric insurance (eg. cat bonds) ~$120-135B - bank derivatives (structured products, dealer-to-dealer, exotics, etc.) ~200-400B The current market is in the 1-1.5T range, but it's mostly illiquid and over-the-counter (OTC ie. you're trading against one counterparty). Every time a major OTC market moved to exchange-traded, the market grew because a price benchmark got established, big-ask spreads collapsed, access stops being gated by Wall Street elites, and entirely new classes of participants enter: interest rate swaps (10-15x), equity options (20-30x), energy derivatives (5-8x). The institutional use case for prediction markets could be a 10-15T market, with upside beyond that depending on how much they democratize access to products that are currently exclusive to Wall St.

Polymarket is finally dropping Polygon ! Good riddance. Polygon is a dinosaur chain from the 2018 ICO era : - Most of their founder left already, no developpement. - 80% of the chain's activity is Polymarket - 2s blocktime (most UI slowness comes from this) - blocksize hovering around 50kb, major bottleneck There have been a lot of speculation about which chain Polymarket will migrate too but given their requirements of instant finality, large block size and cheap fees i see only one option. They will create their own ! Probably in the form of an Ethereum L2. And every chain needs it's token, which means $POLY is coming along with it. I wouldn't expect it next month, chain migration is a huge technical challenge, but a 6 month timeline seems realistic. In the meantime keep gambling, don't count on an airdrop to offset your losses but welcome it as a nice surprise when it comes.