Igor

@DustinGouker Arguably a lotto ticket is worth its price in dopamine and hope - especially if you don’t expect to win. Why not?

Kalshi’s media strategy leaves something to be desired if we are being honest

@michael_lwy @datadashboards UI could be improved also we tried to execute and it failed so UX was clunky as well, there could also be an obvious point, MM userbase entrenched as buy/hold>transfer to cold wallet user base, begs digging into, embedded works when you meet users on their JBTD flow

is it right that Metamask has 30M MAU? cumulative unique users of their polymarket integration is 16,000. lifetime volume less that $6m. conversion seems exceptionally low (data credits: @datadashboards)

@michael_lwy @VitalikButerin @DaedalusRsch @probaaron @aradtski @functionspaceHQ @TideMarkets @ZEITFinance @Jake_Nyquist @Nekt_0 @Ranger_Global @jeff__opinion @masonnystrom @RohOnChain Lets get the legit discussion over to onprediction.xyz :)

Here's who to follow if you want actually good takes on prediction markets: @VitalikButerin @DaedalusRsch @probaaron @aradtski @functionspaceHQ @TideMarkets @ZEITFinance @Jake_Nyquist @Nekt_0 @Ranger_Global @sybilpm @nic__carter @jeff__opinion @masonnystrom @RohOnChain @aaronjmars @klos @voliti_co @gemchange_ltd @hyperstiti0ns @benfielding @semajeth @0xjacobzhao @0xnagu @SolSt1ne @mikhryc0x @mikita_crypto @marvellousdefi @theoddchain @curiouscamilo @linfluence @jolimmmm @outpxce @socialgraphvc @DougieDeLuca @BetBreakNews @dbarabander @sidbharth @smaaaaliy @thejay @trashman18 @drNeyo @13_niakris @Baheet @a1research__ @akshayraj_v0 @reachavci @njokuScript

@hosseeb @masonnystrom We had a front row seat! The lens of trusted vs trustless systems might have been better framing - both have costs/benefits as trade-offs - i.e. being able to sue someone for breaching contract is useful, but you pay for that with reduced access etc

The line "decentralization doesn't matter" is getting repeated more and more these days. I recently broke out into debate on-stage with @masonnystrom about why decentralization was essential to prediction markets existing at all. It got heated. Worth the 5 minutes:

@mikekatz29 Positive that the SEC isn’t muddying the waters on that front, the aspect of “sufficiently decentralised” is interesting - i wonder if this translates to event contracts and permissionless fully p2p or person 2 contract models?

The release is really about assets native to crypto systems. Prediction market contracts are more derivatives that may happen to settle onchain. The relevant regulatory question for Polymarket-style contracts has always been CFTC jurisdiction (event contracts under the CEA), not Howey. This release doesn't change that analysis much. But obviously a lot to come in the prediction markets space, especially as lawsuits and regulatory actions pick up in the states.

The SEC just released the most important piece of U.S. crypto regulatory guidance ever produced. 68 pages. 148 footnotes. A 5-category token taxonomy. Safe harbors for staking, mining, wrapping, and airdrops. And a separation doctrine that changes how every token deal gets structured. Initial takeaways in this thread. Full analysis in my article below.

Kalshi has ~10,000 live markets. They want 50,000–100,000. Interestingly they say, "95% of their MM liquidity comes from ~2,000 individuals, not institutional market makers." People with niche expertise. An Ariana Grande superfan, a Kansas based inflation forecaster i.e. Belief-driven participants. What if the liquidity model was rebuilt around how these people actually think? Pair that with un-gated market creation and distribution channels and 100k markets starts to look like the floor not the ceiling. 5 things we find particularly insightful from the Cheeky Pint episode: 1. "80% of Kalshi users don't trade." They check the odds. The primary product is information, not the trading activity. 2. The best inflation forecaster on Kalshi is a guy in Kansas who never traded before. Dispersed private knowledge finding a price - Hayek in practice. 3. Kalshi explicitly wants to move beyond binary. Futures, swaps, options are on the roadmap. Binary is the starting point, not the end state. 4. Tarek cites the "infinite markets" thesis. As society gets more complex, you need markets on the individual factors driving outcomes, not just the aggregate. 5. Long-tail liquidity is how they think about moat. Head markets attract makers organically. The long tail needs something structurally different.

🔶 Introducing forum to onprediction[dot]xyz. Prediction markets need better discourse instead of slop content. Now you can: → write short posts or long takes in Markdown → post questions to a curated group that actually knows their shit → discuss with other builders & researchers → upvote what's worth reading Check it out! Link below.

@michael_lwy Banger🔥🔥🔥

@thenarrator E Corp?

i still can’t fully wrap my head around what Palantir actually does. but I’m struggling to see how polymarket partnering with a company widely labeled surveillance machine aligns with the open and transparent ethos that got me here in the first place.

@tobalgarcia_ @grok im tired can you gimme the tl:dr

@DefiIgnas spicy

Google Search says Kalshi is a sports betting company. Not a prediction market - betting company. Basically gambling. The framing matters and seems that PMs are struggling with narrative control Ohio judge just ruled that Kalshi is sports betting and must adhere to state law.

@michael_lwy haha man I had to legit spend a good amount of time confirming this wasn't a parody account

well you can't deny the energy

Was fun writing this one, have I missed the mark on anything?

@DustinGouker I mean if you don't have haters are you really trying hard enough?

Generational hater of me. I almost respect it.

@austiinxbt Not so ironically - this would make for an interesting prediction market topic (as long as you accept the insider alpha)

"We want POLY to be a token with true utility" Pretty bullish coming from the Polymarket CMO himself but what could the utility of POLY be? Here are my 5 thoughts 👇 1) Staking for market resolution/disputes the team has already hinted at moving away from the current UMA standard of resolving & disputing markets I am quite positive POLY will be used to stake on correct resolution outcomes & provide incentives for doing so This should also allow anybody to propose resolutions or dispute using their POLY tokens as collateral Correct voters earn tokens, incorrect voters lose them 2) Liquidity Providing Incentives Polymarket's institutional partners want to have the most reliable data they can get (main reason why I think LP rewards are the alpha right now too) & the partnership with the NYSE proves this Therefore, on top of USDC rewards, I imagine POLY will be used to increase incentives for providing liquidity We could also see POLY rewards for creating markets that attract a certain threshold of volume 3) Partial Fee Rebates It's no surprise Polymarket is turning on the fee switch but I think we could see a fee rebate for stakers of POLY users with heavy volume will be incentivised to hold & stake the token to reduce fees on their trades 4) Market creation collateral Polymarket has already mentioned the prospect of users creating their own markets but to prevent low quality markets, I imagine that users must have to stake POLY to have access in creating markets > if the market resolves cleanly -> the user gets their POLY back + incentives in fees from trading volume in pool > if market is disputed/invalid or doesn't get enough trading volume -> the user gets their POLY stake slashed 5) Transaction Fees Polymarket has made it clear that they are moving to their own L2 which means POLY will likely become the tx token of the chain pretty standard use case Overall, I'm pretty hyped to see what the real utility will be & think we get an idea on this within the next 3-6 months After all, the airdrop is second on their main roadmap list Any other utility you'd add?

@adiix_official No he didn’t, he doesn’t exist

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.

@DustinGouker @dhtoomey @goodworkmb Legit, who and why do some hate? Information with a sense of humour doesn’t discriminate!

Added 1,000 subs in a month to The Event Horizon, which is pretty insane considering it took a year for the first 2K. Thanks to everyone who reads and shares, and to the haters, of which there are many. Special shoutout to @dhtoomey and @goodworkmb for helping people find me.