Tonichi

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Global M2 vs BTC I've noticed a few people getting very pushy and rude when it comes to global M2, demanding updates and insulting me personally when I don't share the chart, or when I do and it doesn't line up to their expectations. I'm going to cut through the B.S. and give you the realest update I can: ▶️ Global M2 is NOT currently correlated. ◀️ Could it resume correlation? Sure. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. There's no guarantee. VERY IMPORTANT FACTOR: We know that as Bitcoin neared *all 3* past cycle tops, BTC broke correlation with global M2, and that is another possibility of what's happening now (To back this up: I do think we could be closing in on a potential BTC cycle top about ~3 months from now). Watch this video which explicitly covers this *EXPECTED* scenario: youtu.be/rpZPRkJdTNU The truth is: I've noticed several influencers on social media manipulatively (or ignorantly) displaying smaller time-frame global M2 charts with sneak y-axis scaling that makes BTC look more correlated than it actually is when zoomed out. I specifically made the chart below to not have any bias, and it shows how far M2 has deviated from BTC recently. This is the REAL, raw chart. I will keep a watchful eye on global M2. I think it has a chance to resume some increased level of correlation during BTC's next, big, vertical leg up, but I can't guarantee that, or that it will resume correlation at all this cycle. Again, the video above covers this scenario and it may simply be that final inning of the bull run where BTC decouples from M2 as it has done *every other cycle top*. A little history: In my observation, the Global M2 Money Supply began having the tightest correlation with BTC when the Bitcoin Spot ETFs launched in January 2024. From that moment forward M2 and BTC were in a fairly tight lock-step. However, for the past ~3 months the correlation has been getting weaker and weaker, to the point where it's clearly the weakest correlation since Jan 2024. Now, don't come swearing at me because I shared it, or because you don't like it. Thanks. Have a nice day. :)