kailashridgecapital

@Venu_7_ $META

You can only buy ONE stock today. You have to hold it for the next 12 months. What’s your pick, and why?

That's a very reasonable take. In growth/ small cap investing the 2 most important things are A) Trust and B) Corporate governance. I was ok with dilution, ok with not announcing new deals. But when I saw that no performance / time based stock vesting and Jersey deal, its pushing it. You are right to point out cult following is not necessary, I learnt this hard way with BMNR. I moved my position in to NBIS. IREN can triple from here but I won't have any regrets, simply becoz they lack governance standards I set for my portfolio

$IREN “It’s a bull market” Well… try telling that to IREN shareholders. ATM offerings, management-friendly compensation packages, a $50 million deal with Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, and Brandin Podziemski?? The stock closed below its 50W moving average. Last time that happened, the stock took the elevator down soon after. Any rally into the $47–48 area looks like a reasonable place to sell into strength. This one looks so rough that even a Steph Curry three from the logo may not be enough to save this.

@moninvestor I had to make a hard decision of swapping out of $IREN to $NBIS. I'm not sure the developments are redflags but the story is becoming unclear for me as compared to $NBIS. Still believe compute is the bottle neck and $IREN might be a 2027 story

$IREN - This is not good. Look, I actually hope they have something planned. I do not care that the founders get rich. I care that shareholders get rich too. If this stock goes up 10x and everybody wins, great. Pay them whatever you want. I honestly could not care less about the number. The size of this grant only makes sense if the people running IREN genuinely believe this company will be worth hundreds of billions of dollars someday. You do not hand your two CEOs a package like this at today's share price, with no major news, unless you truly believe the stock is going to multiply many times over from here. What I would have preferred is a compensation package that is actually performance-based. Make the shares vest only if they deliver. Tie it to the stock price or meaningful operational milestones, so they get paid when I get paid. Right now, it is none of that. It is purely time-based vesting. They receive the shares whether the stock runs to $200 or falls back to $20. That is the part I cannot get behind. Give me a package that rewards performance, and I am fully on board. For now, I will not be adding to my position. The next few quarters are going to be critical for the company.

PA of $IREN suggests thats they might be pivoting in to catering Small and medium merchants from Hyper scalers and market just don't like it. If you have taken a position $IREN and not $NBIS definitely you are pissed. Options are very simple, wait for a year for them to execute or move to NBIS during a DD. Its dead in the short term but none of their moat changed fundamentally, it simply is not a Q3 story anymore

@amitisinvesting Thanks for connecting like minded people, its was amazing to see you in person! You are doing amazing work, keep it going!!!

Singapore Meetup! It was another reminder to me that no matter where you go across the world, we all just want to talk stocks. All of us exist in this super, super niche world in which we actually care about Micron and Kevin Warsh so it just requires a bit of extra work to make sure we can find our tribe in person 😂 Really grateful to connect in real life with people from different cultures that believe in the same principles around what it means to be an investor. Thank you to everyone who came out!

@hamids Just unbelievable articulation on what's going on in $MU. My conviction stays intact due to posts like this! Thank you

Here we go again... $MU is down to its pre-quarterly revenue release price again, after they once again CRUSHED estimates with $41 Billion of revenue (est were $35B), brought in $25/share of profits (est were $20), and massively raised guidance for next quarter ($50 Billion of revenue and $30/share of profits, up from $41B and $24 EPS). But most importantly, especially to the "cyclical bear thesis," they announced that they are signing long-term contracts with their customers with "minimum revenue guarantees." In a single quarter, they went from having signed $5 Billion of guaranteed revenue contracts to $100 Billion of guaranteed revenue with just 16 customers. So the bear thesis has shifted to "Chinese are going to flood memory chips" because $AAPL has asked permission for US to allow Chinese made chips to help ease pricing pressure. But here is the part that the bears are missing: the entire world supply of memory chips is NOT ENOUGH to meet the demand. And the most optimistic projections is that the supply shortage will not ease until AT LEAST 2028, but probably much much longer than that. Why is that? Because it takes a lot of time and investment to bring on new fabs to increase memory supply. And despite all the investments that have been made so far, 2027-2030 are expected to add just another 10% of capacity annually! Just 10% per year! That's it! But memory demand for AI is expected to continue to grow 30-50% annually! So there is a good chance supply is going to get even tighter than ever before. This is why Micron management confidently has said they expect $50 Billion of revenue THIS QUARTER with more than $30 per share of EPS. So we all should WELCOME the Chinese manufacturers. We need them! The world needs them. This memory shortage is not even remotely close to being over. And from now on, anybody who uses the world "cyclical" when referring to memory being a commodity is an idiot! Why? Because they've been wrong trying to predict when the cycle ends for at least 2 years. And they haven't been a little wrong, they've just been completely out of their minds wrong! Trying to claim victory if the supply catches up to demand in 3 or 5 years from now, saying "see, I told you it was cyclical" would be absolutely idiotic. Saying things like "it can't last forever" is unhelpful. If the supply catches up to demand, but Micron is a $500 Billion business when it does, your prediction is still unhelpful from an investment perspective! Also, there is good evidence that memory makers don't want to be caught in a low-margin business ever again, and therefore they will all be working to build long-term contracts with their customers to ensure minimum prices/margins. Micron added $100 Billion of such contracts in just 2 quarters and will likely add hundreds of billions more in the coming quarters.

Notes to myself : 1. Diversification is necessary to protect wealth, but it won't get you anywhere when you're trying to build wealth. 2. Look for 4–8, preferably on the lower side, high-conviction stocks in the right sectors, founder-led businesses with a unique moat or in the right momentum sector. That's how you build wealth. 3. Don't quit just because a stock is slightly overvalued. Let it become absurdly overvalued. The market has bipolar tendencies, it swings to both extremes: overvaluation and undervaluation. $RKLB is a good example for this. Technical matters a lot in the short term, be aware of a broken chart when taking short term decision 4. When you see a drawdown, consolidate your portfolio into your highest-conviction names (preferably 4). That way, when the market bounces, you capture the upside. 5. Keep refining your X feed. Block the fear-spewing accounts that chase attention at the cost of your conviction. 6. Valuation matters. Maybe not in the short term, but definitely in the long term. The stocks you hold should be driven by Forward PE and EPS growth 7. Don't bring past trauma into investing. You'll never be able to pick stocks like $MU if you're anchored to the past. Every cycle is new, look at it with a fresh lens. 8.Even within a concentrated portfolio of 4–6 stocks, diversify across industries. That gives you the flexibility to rotate when a specific sector gets hit, whether it's fintech, AI, EVs, space, or something else 9. Investing/ Trading world is a big ocean, there are so many different types of methods to be successful. Try to find your own method and don't draw comparison with others (even on the learnings), Context matters a lot and its usually cannot be communicated over a Tweet. Listen to others and see if your own strategy can be enhanced based on that 10. Whenever you want to take a decision of buy/ sell/ trim - Give yourself at least 2 hours to think through the decision, this is especially important when you are in 0 capital gains country, where you tend to over trade based on news flows and sentiments 11. Every day, keep looking at the portfolio and ask yourself a questions, is the portfolio optimized for best risk /return in the futures, has the thesis changed, has the moat changed/ Is the sector still in momentum (bottle neck). Brutally cut stocks if anything changes, don't be married to any stocks 12. It takes 10,000 iterations (not repetitions), forming a strategy/ learning from it/ iterating for better to reach to a point of being in control/ success strategy - It could take many years, patience is key and don't give up

@markminervini I will sell, when the either of A) Revenue YoY declines or B) Gross Margins goes down or C) We cross a 18-20x FPE, even if that means exiting with a 30% DD during the earnings. Have been riding from 300s and so far it has more than 3xed.

The "it's different this time" crowd is getting louder. We're not at peak euphoria just yet, but the Kool-Aid is definitely being poured. A strong $MU report will only strengthen the belief that every dip is there to be bought. That's often how complacency sets in—right before risk management gets tossed out the window. My friend who is an amateur trader told me yesterday that he's up over 500% in $SNDK. When I asked him when and under what conditions would he sell, there was silence. I've seen this movie before, and it never ends well. But enjoy it while it's playing. The bulls are still in control.

@Randeep_Sisodia Casted votes for last election is <5Crores. 3% of that is 15L, which we are going to achieve this weekend. What a blunder by the TN State BJP leaders

At 12 noon Annamalai’s movement had 20,000 members… In a little over 6 hours it is closing on 7.5 lacs… In TN, BJP vote share is 2.9%. Annamalai has crossed 1.3% of voter base in 6 hours! At what number do you think the powers in TN will start getting worried?? 😜😆😆

@jiahanjimliu @JonahLupton I used to subscribe to Jonah stock deep dives before he started First wave fund, he is legit very good. He has in depth understanding of how to pick right stocks and portfolio management. His returns was triple digit% for both 2023 and 2024, I learnt a lot from him

Cleaning up via delete and re-post to get facts right: Thinking back to when DVB was questioning if @JonahLupton is legit, it’s very clear Jonah is very legit. Jonah has 551k followers and doesn’t bother to setup subscriptions for monetization. Not naming specific names but there are people with 50k followers who have 2-3k subscribers paying $5-10 a month. Nothing wrong with subscriptions or monetization but the fact that Jonah doesn’t have one at 500k+ followers verifies that he runs a fund and has significantly higher income sources elsewhere. 551k followers can convert to 5k-21k subscribers or 25k-150k USD/month that Jonah is leaving on the table. I do believe DVB is legit ex-exec and he posts some good trades but there’s no reason for him to be calling out Jonah. I’ve followed Jonah’s posts for 2 years now and there’s no promotional posts.

@redmanDgr8 @kishorecpr What about Maharastra?

@kishorecpr Show us a BJP ruling state whose GDP > TN

In my friends circle, many from Tamil Nadu say they hate BJP or Modi. When I ask them why, they become silent for a moment and tell “That and all we don’t know… we just don’t like them, that’s it.” At least here, can someone give one valid reason to hate them? 🤔 #NarendraModi #BJP

@kishorecpr Don't fight the trend, bring Annamalai come to power and then educate people. I am a huge BJP supporter but the way the handled the Tamil nadu election is something to be disappointed about ( probably hate too)

@anandragn Lets go to new ATH

Are we back to the $IREN is gonna lead everything phase for the foreseeable future now?