karcharodon
5.8K posts

karcharodon
@kar4arodon
♛ top 0,1% Polymarket trader ♛ early DeFi user ♛ madlads #6847








The only reason you are still not printing from $10 to $10,000 on 15 minute Polymarket markets is that you do not have professional software like institutional traders. In this post there is no bullshit about some Claude AI agent writing a "Polymarket bot" for you. in reality traders work through proper terminals and indicators. And honestly, 90% of people will not even try to set this up, even when there is a manual. In this post I will show how to use a professional trading terminal used by pro traders, and give you an indicator that uses technical analysis to predict the direction of the next candle. 🔸 The full installation guide is on GitHub, with a video tutorial. Here is the short version: 1. Install the terminal You need to install the trading terminal MetaTrader 4. No browser nonsense with TradingView. Real technical analysis is done in terminals where you have: - the power of real hardware - full quote history - proper indicators 2. Chart setup After registering a demo account - you will get access to the terminal and quotes. After that select the BTC chart in the instrument archive. Attention! Quotes in the terminal will differ from Polymarket, BUT the movement patterns repeat 1:1, so there is no problem using the Binance quote feed that exists in the terminal. What we care about is direction and movement in (%), not the exact price. 3. Installing the indicator I sent this indicator to several traders from the community - they are already running it on 15-minute Polymarket markets. Download my indicator from GitHub and move it into the Indicators folder inside the terminal. In the terminal select the 15-minute timeframe. 4. Open the market on Polymarket You need to open the 15-minute markets on Polymarket: polymarket.com/crypto/15M?via… 🔸 Now how the indicator works: At the start of every new 15-minute candle, if a signal appears, the terminal sends a notification with a sound. At that moment you enter the trade. There is one feature: The arrow on the chart appears two candles back. For example. Now it is 1:30. The indicator gives a BUY signal. On the chart the arrow will appear on the 1:00 candle. But this is a prediction for the current 1:30 candle, not the old one. This is how the indicator algorithm works. 🔸 Backtesting is checked very simply. Look where the prediction arrow is -> move +2 candles forward -> check whether the prediction won or not. According to my backtests this indicator gives about 65% accuracy. Honestly, I was surprised myself how consistently it performs on historical data. 🔸 Most people do not understand what this means in money. And this is where the interesting part begins. Here the math appears: If you place a fixed $100 on every trade, the expected value is calculated very simply. Formula: EV = (Pwin × Profit) - (Ploss × Loss) Where Pwin = probability of winning Ploss = probability of losing Plug in the numbers: EV = (0.65 × 100) - (0.35 × 100) EV = 65 - 35 EV = +$30 per trade. Which means on average every trade gives +$30 of expected value. Over a distance of 100 trades: EVtotal = 100 × 30 = +$3000. And this is with a fixed bet of only $100. 🔸 I also have several other indicators with winrates up to 80%. They predict more consistently than this indicator, regardless of the market phase (sideways, falling, rising). If this post gets decent engagement - I will release them too. Full guide and the indicator are uploaded on github: github.com/0xLanister/pol… When you test this - write about the results of your trading. DYOR. Print hard, print smart.


Day 468: I’m earning ~$10/hour in LP rewards almost risk-free. My strategy is to provide liquidity on NCAAB games before they start. Polymarket offers around $7,500 in LP rewards as pre-game incentives. > Insert an expiry time before the games start > Pick the side with the lowest odds so you can provide more shares >Make sure the order book is thick so you don’t get filled too quickly If your bid gets hit, just try to sell using limit orders for a small profit or instantly exit at breakeven (minus a small fee). This is one of my favorite ways to farm LP rewards since the downside is relatively low.




Hibachi Vaults are now live. Our first vault is the Growi Alpha Vault (GAV), operated by @GrowiFinance. GAV delivers a proven strategy with strong real yield, currently sitting at 69% APY. Access is based on activity and points. Deposits also accrue points passively while earning yield. Hibachio




























