ranch

Wow… so this is huge $MXL has locked up the only guaranteed 1.6T silicon supply for the next 18 months Rushmore 1.6T DSP is made using the 4nm node If a Hyperscaler wants 1.6T optics for a cluster they are building in Q1 27, and they haven't already secured a spot in the TSMC 2 year backlog, they literally cannot get chips from Broadcom or Marvell Especially from Broadcom as their chips require CoWoS which is even more backlogged This is a great indicator that the demand from hyperscalers is accelerating as they are essentially locking up MaxLinear’s capacity because it is the only guaranteed supply of 1.6T silicon available until late 2028 MXL is sitting on a pre paid, high yield production line at Samsung Management has stated they already secured $210M in long term purchase commitments specifically for wafer supply and assembly services They have also been aggressively building die bank inventory, in which inventory levels grew slightly this quarter You wouldn’t be hoarding supply if the demand wasn’t there This company is only guiding for $150M in optical revenue for 26’ Data center revenue will start ramping up in back half 26’ Management is essentially guiding as if the growth stops in July, which contradicts their own statement about "accelerating ramps through 2027” I’m starting to think this is a MAJOR sandbag from management 😳

This is one of the most insane runs of the entire cycle. $AAOI up 382% YTD. From $11 to $190 in 12 months. I started buying in the low 30s when fewer than 5 accounts on this app were covering the name. The 1.6T supercycle is here.

$AAOI is my biggest position. Let me show you exactly why using their own words. On the Q4 earnings call, CEO Thompson Lin was asked about the $1B+ revenue guide for 2026. His response: "The demand is much, much bigger than $1 billion. That's the number we feel minimum 99% confident we can deliver." Then the CFO said this about the $378M monthly run rate target for mid-2027: "This revenue level is limited by our production capacity and supply chain — not market demand, which we believe is much larger." Read that again. The ceiling on this company is not customers. Not competition. Not pricing. Purely how fast they can build fabs. Now here's what nobody is modeling correctly. That $378M monthly number — $4.5B annualized — is not the ceiling. Management explicitly said customer demand exceeds even that figure. On capacity, here's the number that floored me: End of 2025: 90,000 units/month of 800G capacity. End of 2026 target: 500,000 units/month. 5.5x capacity increase in 12 months. Here's how that ramp actually plays out: - 800G firmware completes: mid-March - 800G volume ramp begins: Q2 2026 - 500,000 units/month online: end of 2026 - $378M monthly run rate: mid-2027 And here's the part the market is completely missing on capex efficiency: 800G and 1.6T are manufactured on the exact same production line. Every dollar $AAOI spends building 800G capacity is automatically 1.6T capacity. Competitors building separate lines are burning capital twice. $AAOI is not. Then on hard orders: "Within less than three months — $100M+ in 800G orders. $200M+ in 1.6T orders." From a company doing $134M in total quarterly revenue today. "It's not a demand issue" — said three separate times on the call. The question for $AAOI is not whether demand exists. That's been answered. The question is purely execution. And they just committed $300M to triple their laser manufacturing capacity in Texas to answer it. Full breakdown + DCF on my Substack(Link in Bio + Below)

What stock is an EASY DOUBLE from here? Theres not many left in this market.

Once supply chain companies are found, that were previously unheard of. The masses move in quickly. Look at $SIVE $ALRIB $IQE etc etc $TRT could be next here, this is retail. Not institutions. We are on micro volume compared to what institutions will bring. Don't say we didn't talk about it here, cause we did. I hope you all are profiting!

Can't tell if $CIFR at $13.75 or $IREN at $35.09 is the better deal... Despite the pullback, I'm waiting until Weekly flips bullish. I'll be sizing in heavily when the time comes.