Kaviish

Solana isn’t just a memecoin chain. It’s becoming the liquidity layer of crypto. Onchain SOL-USD volume has exceeded Binance + Bybit spot SOL volume for 3 consecutive months This is what real adoption looks like

Sports transformed Kalshi's trajectory Aug ’24: 1/36th of Polymarket’s volume Mar ’26: $11.2B vs $10.0B Sports share: Jan ’25: 4% → Mar ’26: 85% One category flipped the market leader

by 2030, our agents will be browsing, testing, negotiating, spawning subagent teams, and transacting on our behalf every task they take on will generate a chain of micro-purchases. the per-use costs look like new spending, but they'll be replacing tools and labor that cost much more. the better the tools available, the better the agents will perform, and the more freedom we'll give them. some humility is required to admit that we can't envision most of what the open agentic internet will become. the companies who build the infrastructure that agents eventually adopt will capture potentially the largest new pool of economic activity in our lifetimes. the incumbents are already jockeying for position but the machine economy will also create its own giants. the last time a new internet emerged, it created Google, Amazon, Facebook, Paypal, and Salesforce agentic commerce is coming.

Made an initial draft of a Prediction Markets landscape map What am I missing? Who else belongs on here?

@0xslayerrrr Boss

mummy i made it onto forbes

Bloomberg @business uses @artemis for their latest piece on the rise of @opinionlabsxyz , a leading prediction market. Huge shout out @kaviish for getting the data!

i've been saying it for several months now: people are overestimating how fast agentic payments will be adopted in the short term, but at the same time are wildly underestimating how big of a market it will become, and how fast the takeoff will be in the medium to long term while x402 activity has fallen since the end of 2025 highs, i'm encouraged by the steady growth we're seeing from @base & @solana -> to put a long story short, i don't think the seller/discovery layer is ready for mainstream adoption -- and until that moment comes, i see the growth of unique sellers as a better indicator of progress in the space (not txns and volume). + after the past few months tinkering w command-line commerce (h't @cuysheffield) and @openclaw (check out @nexus_x402), it's clear the blockers are: (1) too few useful x402 endpoints/merchants exist today (2) no proven discovery/aggregation layer for trustworthy endpoints so let's continue building, integrating, and aggregating endpoints that we can trust so that we remove the friction for agents even more. agentic commerce is coming.

agentic commerce is accelerating. so here's a breakdown of the current landscape:

Stablecoins are no longer niche. They are becoming everyday money. @BVNKFinance, @Artemis, and @Coinbase just surveyed 4,600+ stablecoin users across 15 countries. And the results show a global shift is already underway. Here’s what the data reveals 🧵

"Solana is number one in users, transactions, developer growth, trading volume, and fees with 24+ consecutive months of uptime. A marketplace for financial apps and users. That's how Solana becomes the internet capital markets." - Zheng Jie Lim of @artemis

@josusanmartin how much have u spent in Claude credits by now 💀

527!!

@joaomendoncaaaa Funny enough if Sol didn’t have inflation, it probably wouldn’t have been able to build such robust infra and hence there wouldn’t be protocols like jup, pump, axiom,etc that brought so many eyes to sol

The best Prediction Market dashboard in the world is on @artemis h/t @kaviish for cooking 🧑‍🍳

@izebel_eth And doing this is kinda easier during the bear cuz literally no one else is looking

the longterm pmf successes during crypto's history have been: btc, exchanges, and stablecoins these are the areas that have and will continue to see investment even while other thesis fail despite sentiment, i think investing in good crypto projects will outperform traditional investing due to the friction of identifying the good ones and navigating onchain - this was my lived experience in 2022 and 2023

@ltrd_ 3. A lot of BTC volume is now through ETFs, so it won’t show up directly in Binance volume indicators

Always double check the data before conclutions: 1. Volume is based on the BTC sold, not the USD value, so those two periods should not be compared. 2. Second period is fee-free period for BTC pairs on Binance, so you basically could trade for free. Remember, if your assumptions are wrong, then all your conclusions are wrong.

It’s not that crypto is dead, it’s that the token paradigm is flawed and people have been burned by it for so long Avg project roadmap: Raise from VCs for actual equity Build nothing useful Launch a token while larping like the token is equity (it’s not) Quick EL for the team + insiders And we are suprised why new alts are down only There is a reason why memecoins got so much attention this cycle. Everyones tired of the same bs playbook from “serious” projects.

@MiyaHedge Isn’t the core issue just that 99% of projects don’t solve a real problem and those same 99% ship a token that isn’t even needed. It's not like useful protocols don't get rewarded Hyperliquid, Axiom, pump, etc. are pretty good examples

Crypto as we know it is over. It's time to look at the abyss and stop acting like this industry will in any way recover if the leaders continue to act like everything is fine and the 50th perps DEX will solve this. The Death of the Crypto VC sector is slowly unfolding during the past few months. LP commitments have been on a low and didn't even remotely recover during a generational $16k -> $120k bull market. VCs like Mechanism/Tangent literally pivoted away from crypto. Half of the Paradigm team ragequit in the last 2 months, entire firms silently exited everything. Barely any crypto VC has been able to raise for another fund and the venture appetite is close to zero. Please for the love of god look at the data & stop coping that this in any way is normal or will recover for a sector claiming to be on the frontier of technology. The risk appetite inside venture has been off the charts in the last 3 years, blockchain received only outflows. I spoke to so many VCs (both tradfi and crypto) in the past month, and close to nobody was optimistic about them being able to raise for another crypto-fund. We are at the tail end of blockchain innovation. "Oh ownership coins fix this" No they don't. Sorry to burst your bubble, but as the founder of a company doing "ownership" structures, this fixes exactly nothing. It's a band-aid of complacency. I'd argue it actually makes it worse, because no talented young founder will chose to give anonymous tokenholders full control of their business, it just turns crypto even more into this autistic cypherpunk delusion. Blockchain & especially alt coins has moved from the frontier of technology to an un-investable asset class who's building products who nobody needs. And the VCs who are left are trying their best to unauthentically manufacture narratives, fund the current hot thing (just to be left at 0 after the 3y vesting starts, and the current hot thing turned out to be not so societally important as the fast moving crypto sector thought it would be). The frontier of technology has moved away from blockchain and sits at AI & Robotics right now and blockchain right now is seen as the weird industry you enter to build something meaningless for exit liquidity. If we want this industry to bloom again, we need to work to get rid of the 3 in web3 and come back to reality. We need to go towards the epicenter of the current innovation and not try to artificially replicate it inside crypto. It's either valuable tokens for web2 startups or this sector & especially the venture market goes to 0. @StreetFDN

Most are focussed on perp dexs, but farming Opinion might be the bigger play. Opinion just did $7.58B in volume over the last 30D, basically Kalshi / Polymarket scale. Fees were $5.98M → 7.9 bps. Points emitted are ~428K over 30D, so the implied cost is ~$13.95 per point. What that means if you're farming at today's rate: Top 100 (~1,421 pts) ≈ ~$20K in fees Top 30 (~4,209 pts) ≈ ~$59K in fees Spend $26K in fees today ≈ ~1,863 pts ROI depends on airdrop allocation %: 10% alloc: $10K in fees breaks even at ~$205M FDV; at $500M → $24K (2.4x), at $1B → $49K (4.9x) 5% alloc (bear): breakeven jumps to ~$410M FDV If you think allocation is 20–30% (like Hyperliquid / Lighter), farming Opinion is rational even if the token doesn't do too well. At 30% allo, breakeven is just $68M FDV. Cost per point will obviously increase as more farmers pile in closer to TGE (and if they delay it). But still an opportunity worth watching.

Hyperliquid isn’t competing with Lighter anymore. It’s lapping it. HIP3 markets alone are now generating more fees than all Lighter pairs combined Hyperliquid is where the traders are choosing to be