jaredmac5

The following is NOT my top 20 list for the Derby. It is just another type of performance figure that is very different from any others and is created by a computer model that projects the expected final times for each Derby horse based on its best race prior to the Derby at 1, 1/8th miles or longer. The model basically assumes that the horses will repeat that effort and extends their race out to 1,1/4 miles, which obviously is a very dangerous assumption to make in the Kentucky Derby. The input from the model comes from TimeformUS result charts using the adjusted fractions calculated by @CraigMilkowski. Consider this just another input for your Derby Analysis, but probably more informative than a lot of other information that you will be bombarded with as the Derby approaches. The main number to look at is in the second to last column (Adj Proj 10f Time). This is the predicted final time for each horse in the Derby. Those horses with green shaded times are contenders. The next most important number is the last column (Final 8th TF adj). This is how long it took the horse to run the last 8th of a mile in its Derby prep. This is not the “raw” final fraction that you often see. It is based on adjustments made by Craig to account for the track speed. Obviously, this is much more meaningful than looking at just the “raw” fraction. Those horses with green shaded times are contenders. Finally, the horses that have green shaded times in both those columns are the primary contenders and the winner is very likely to come from that group. This year that list would include: Further Ado, So Happy, Renegade, The Puma, and Commandment. Chief Wallabee just misses so you can probably include him as well. Not surprisingly, that is a list of mostly favorites although So Happy looks like the best value right now based on the model as he seems to be a bit under the radar despite winning the Santa Anita Derby. Note that I do not have data for the foreign horses, so you are on your own with them. Feel free to use or ignore. Also, if you want to up your game before the Derby, then you should order by new book, Betting on Horses$, which is packed with wisdom from top players that will help you improve your results. Go to BetWithTheBestMedia.com to find out more and order your copy at the discounted price. Good luck