Antoine Le Calvez

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Antoine Le Calvez

Antoine Le Calvez

@khannib

The Indiana Jones of the cryptosphere ℕ𝕆𝕃𝕀·ℂℝ𝔼𝔻𝔼ℝ𝔼·𝕍𝔼ℝ𝕀𝔽𝕀ℂ𝔸

Katılım Mayıs 2011
203 Takip Edilen12.3K Takipçiler
Tekrox.eth
Tekrox.eth@tekr0x·
arguably this is the best yield dashboard outhere 🇪🇺
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Antoine Le Calvez
Antoine Le Calvez@khannib·
Bitcoin’s realized cap breached $1T yesterday!
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Antoine Le Calvez
Antoine Le Calvez@khannib·
Fees paid daily to include blobs on Ethereum are $0.0000089 (yes, that many zeros). It’s probably not enough to cover the electricity costs of a single node validating that enough fee is paid.
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Antoine Le Calvez
Antoine Le Calvez@khannib·
Today’s events serve as a reminder to all French crypto-exposed people to check Pappers.fr and make sure that your current address isn’t there.
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Boxer
Boxer@0xBoxer·
only for positions that haven't been redeemed. If they have been redeemed the position balance would be 0 for the address in question and therefore wouldn't have a value anymore. technically you are correct though, thanks for pointing that out. I even have the "market_resolved" status in my datasets somewhere so I could exclude them easily, just didn't think about it
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Boxer
Boxer@0xBoxer·
Everybody looks at @Polymarket data wrong: Volume is not a great metric. Open Interest aka the positions traders are in is what really matters. Open Interest dictates liquidity conditions and ultimately makes the network effects within polymarket work. So let's actually look at those open positions, and really - tell the story of polymarket in a few graphs. First up the global view: all open positions on polymarket are currently worth about $300m, of those $158m are open interest in the presidential election 2024. The other top markets are: - will biden finish his term ($66m) - Popular Vote ($60m) - Swing states(PA, MI; $100m combined) Let's zoom in on the presidential election market next: There is a staggering $96m of open Interest for the TRUMPWIN outcome, resolving to $146m should that actually be the outcome. Currently there is only $37.7m open interest for a HARRISWIN, but that open interest resolves to $110m if it comes to that, the current position price is simply skewed against HARRIS. The other noteable open interest is for TRUMPLOSS($15m) and HARRISLOSS($7m). All taken together, the nominal shares on each side of the market (TRUMPWIN, HARRISLOSS - HARRISWIN, TRUMPLOSS) are balanced and would resolve to about $150m when either candidate wins. Polymarket converts positions regularly in the background from either of these pairs to each other to keep the market in balance, it really is a beautiful system. Now for the final piece of understanding Polymarket: Since we have all positions, we can actually dig down deep into the data and look if the market is rigged, centralized or if it's just Donors pumping up the market like so many are putting out claims for. We have the data for all positions over all time, so let's check who holds either TRUMPWIN or HARRISLOSS and what those positions are valued at. 70% of open interest is owned by the top 25 addresses. 0x12f = Fredi999 alone has an open position worth $14m. The concentration of the market is even going up with new whales entering the picture or existing ones increasing their positions. The market really is driven by traders with a position size of upwards of $100k. Splitting up the open position value by bucket sizes paints a clear picture. Amazingly, this is not due to a lack of traders either, there actually is 128k open position with a value of <100$, the whales are simply far too large and the traders too little in numbers to balance this out. (of course we are in crypto and those 128k are probably not all real people, but rather mixed with airdrop farmers) That concludes this part of insights on polymarket for me. This data is freely available on Dune, I will share the dashboard below in a comment. We also have trades, user registration and generally all market data in great detail and prepared available. I would love for other wizards to start working with this data to figure out what's really happening on polymarket, feel free to dm me if you need help with this dataset.
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Antoine Le Calvez
Antoine Le Calvez@khannib·
money at stake = how much money winners will win from losers
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FRANCIS ⚜️ BULLBITCOIN.COM
FRANCIS ⚜️ BULLBITCOIN.COM@francispouliot_·
I'm glad I didn't publish this yet so I can publish after pulling new data from the runes spam attack. Just by looking at Bull Bitcoin operations its pretty clear bitcoin core fee estimation made people *massively* overpay and is keeping fees way higher than they should
FRANCIS ⚜️ BULLBITCOIN.COM@francispouliot_

@Pledditor I have done the math comparing Bitcoin Core with mempool.space I am reluctant to publish it without peer review but the TL;DR is that Bitcoin Core sucks and always has a massive lag which causes people to overpay by A LOT

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Antoine Le Calvez
Antoine Le Calvez@khannib·
The largest Bitcoin block (measured in bytes) was mined yesterday but the smallest one (176 bytes, height 225943) was mined in March 2013.
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J 👾
J 👾@_justathinker·
@khannib What’s this chart showing?
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nic carter
nic carter@nic_carter·
Locked myself out and the building mysteriously doesn’t have the backup key
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