Dr Claudio Lanza

The new von der Leyen Commission will be a center-right / right-center Commission, which will be both culturally and politically more attuned to Meloni’s ECR and Orban’s Patriots than to the @GreensEFA. Here’s why 🧵 1. Without the votes of the Greens, @vonderleyen would have not had a majority of the Parliament: - Approximately 50 MEPs defected from vdL majority, most likely from liberals & socialists. - Those were replaced by the vote of the Greens (85%) who gave a ‘blank check’ to vdL, and that despite her political priorities being closer to the EPP than anybody else on the center left. 3. The Greens are NOT part of vdL majority (as vdL clearly stated) and in any event won’t have any chance to hold vdL accountable on her promises, at any time. Not how the EU system works. Ultimately the Socialists - who content themselves with a Commissioner on Housing and few other non-committal promises - Liberals -who got some sloganeering promises to protect the rule of law - won’t have the upper hand either. 4. vdL is now free to set up a center-right, possibly right-center, Commission and pursue that political agenda without being political - nor legally accountable - to the Greens, nor the Socialists and Liberals, but an hegemonic EPP. 5. We may expect half of the new College of Commissioners to be EPP (13) , mostly in charge of key portfolios, despite their geographical provenance, plus 2 ECR, what will give vdL 2.0 a permanent (center-right) majority within the College. Add 5-6 liberals and only 3 socialists, and no greens. Is this what the @europeangreens meant by favouring the formation of pro-European majority at all costs? Von der Leyen's 'big win' will go down in history as Phyrrhus victory for the EU project, which is definitely not in good hands.