Khalid Ashour

@ZaStocks This assumes the market behavior is the same today as it was 25 years ago. If there is a dotcom equivalent it’s not going to play out the same

Here’s the Nasdaq at the peak of the dot com bubble. “You won’t be able to time the top.” Sure but there will be signs. People who act like the stock market cratered 80% overnight are just trying to get engagement and fear monger. Not only did the stock market not crash 80% overnight, but it was a drawn out process that took over two years to bottom. There were plenty of signs that something drastic changed. A few: - Key weekly moving average breaks in the Nasdaq - Big red candles on the major indices - Cycle leaders topping/weakening This chart shows a clear character change before the big crash that took place in late 2000 into 2001+. Even if you didn’t sell at the top and sold 15% lower you still missed a 70% drawdown. There will be signs when the top is in but you don’t need to exit at the exact top.

@DeepValueBagger Saying Shopify's value is the software that can be copied is like saying the value of Visa is the plastic cards they distribute

For some stock like $shop, the price multiples look cheap, revenue looks like it grows ( like $duol), you have to ask yourself why the market is bearish? Here's my hint to you, look further in the future and how disruptive AI for the business. Shopify big sell is it has hundreds of plug and play features. Most stores only need a few. Bloated platform is riped for agentic ai disruption toward custom solution that can be built with a prompt. Maybe not today for everyone but the market is moving fast and you don't see it yet (unless you're a developer deep in this space) until it kills you.

@Basssem666 There is a specific definition for what a flag is, this isn't one.

$BTC $SPY I don’t own or trade crypto, but I think Bitcoin tells the real story here. It’s the asset that can’t be manipulated by governments and it’s showing the real picture. It’s in a downtrend, bear flag after another, and I think the current one may play out soon. Perhaps it’ll take equities down with it.

@potassium_phd It’s a roll to the forward contract not an effective price change

Gap down for oil. Makes no sense so it makes perfect sense 🫡

@Basssem666 Lower low incoming

$SPY This rally has been remarkable no doubt about that, but the volume is very suspicious. I’m not trying to be a perma bear and I’m not, i go long when i see fit. Despite that I still underestimated the extension of this rally and took multiple losses trying to short it. Owned my Ls and moving on. I’m currently neutral, not bullish, nor bearish, and I’ll explain why. The volume on the weekly declined as we went up, the monthly looks funny as far as volume, really pathetic so far but there are still two weeks to go. Nonetheless, with how much the index went up it should be a lot more. This lack of volume says smart money isn’t buying. I’m not calling for new lows or anything yet but just caution. This rally is still very suspicious regardless how historic it is. Price is currently at a rejection zone between 700-705. If price rejects then we’ll start correcting a little. If price holds above then the next level on my fibs is around 710- 713 and that’s crazy without a pullback, but I’m ready for anything at this point to be honest. The first phase of the correction whenever it starts should resolve around 682-678, won’t be in a straight line as there are many supports above, but eventually it should get there, then we will see whether the bulls or the bears are in control. If the 670s hold it’ll be a buyable dip. Technically, even if the correction extends to fill the gap (660) or tag the 200 dma from above it will be a buyable dip as well, if the levels hold of course. If price starts to make higher highs again from there then we’ll likely go for 713 or even higher on SPY, that’ll be super bullish. If price drops below 659 and fails to reclaim it then we are going to test 648-644, if this support fails too then price is heading towards the March low and may even break it. Ultra bearish. It’s still 50/50 between the bulls and the bears despite the massive rally. The volume is very suspicious. No bias. One level at a time.

Not a bull market. Big dip incoming (1-2 weeks)

@WheelieInvestor This whole "low volume" thing needs to die, it has no indicative or predicative value whatsoever. Look up previous recoveries

Look at the declining volume on $QQQ Volume has been very low the past few trading sessions This makes me weary of this huge pump

@FirstSquawk If it was he wouldn’t need to say it

Bessent said the economy was “very strong” through January and February, Semafor reports.

@The_AI_Investor The worse time to buy memory stocks is when forward PE is low

If MU doubles from here, its forward P/E would still be below 10, based on current analyst estimates.

@kurtsaltrichter Stale data they deployed 90% of their target already

Algos hit the buy trigger last week. CTA positioning is rising off deeply negative levels. Worth keeping an eye on.

@BenKizemchuk you've been saying that for 20 years though :) but I agree it's off

Been front office for nearly 20years this nov. Every bit of that experience is saying vibe is way off. Uncanny.

@TraderJonesy @Basssem666 you'll be fine

@Basssem666 They are squeezing us brother.

$SPY No all time high without at least a gap fill to 660 in my opinion.

@Basssem666 you'll be fine

@ggen5v @Mark4XX Dump as in throw in the water? That would push price up not down

@Mark4XX lol you think you can squeeze the us government who has unlimited money and cheats the system everyday 🤣🤣 the government can just dump 10 million physical barrels directly into the Gulf Coast to instantly crush your $170 fantasy. Give it up.

This desperate short-selling won’t end well. Delivery is due in 8 days. The spot market, then trading at $170, will be more than happy to take the oil for $98.90 🤡

Adjusting to 612

@FreeBandito @chrismartenson The gap between futures and spot is out of control

@chrismartenson is there any hard proof of this?

BREAKING: The US Treasury and its proxies sell 'paper oil' in whatever quantities necessary to drive the price back below $99.99/bbl. UP NEXT: Staggering losses to be borne by US taxpayers.

@Basssem666 Good call out but I don’t think it’s as much a risk factor now as it was in July 2024. Net speculative short yen was about 2x as much as it is now, and the rate hike came as a surprise back then. Not to say there is no risk of course

$SPY What’s happening with the Japanese 10year yield is important because Japan has been the world’s main source of cheap money for a long time. For years, interest rates in Japan were extremely low, so big institutions would borrow money there at near zero cost and then invest that money into higher return assets like US stocks. This is known as the “carry trade,” and it has been a major source of liquidity supporting markets. When the Japanese 10year yield starts rising like this, it signals that borrowing in Japan is becoming more expensive and less attractive. As a result, those same institutions may start unwinding those trades meaning they reduce risk by selling stocks and bringing money back. This doesn’t mean the market has to crash immediately, but it does mean that one of the key drivers of liquidity is weakening. Less cheap money in the system typically leads to tighter financial conditions, lower risk appetite, and more fragile price action. So even if the market continues to push higher short term, a sharp move up in Japanese yields is a warning sign that the underlying support for equities is starting to fade.

@GhostsInTheLdgr @JoshYoung yeah CLUSDT

Weekend oil is down 3.8% on hyperliquid

Set market expectations way out and then blow them away over the weekend.

@JohnLoc18 Hold it’ll dump before close

If $SPY close below 675 today I’ll be able to cash out two months of paying bills + groceries 🙏