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As you know, I rarely talk about the macro since I prefer to move my attention solely to the charts, but considering the fear of a recession I want to leave you with my considerations. In July, the unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4.3%, the highest value in the last four months, "activating" the Sahm Rule. For those who don't know, the Sahm Rule states that a recession is likely starting if the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its lowest point in the previous 12 months. So, technically speaking, this "indicator" is flashing the arrival of a recession. The employment report, in fact, recorded an increase of only 114,000 jobs, lower than the expectations of 175,000. Following these developments, major institutions like Goldman Sachs J.P. Morgan and Citigroup have updated their forecasts for the FED's future moves, with their economists that expect the FED to cut interest rates more aggressively and frequently than previously anticipated. Almost every institution seems striking for a 50 basis point rate cut "bet" in both September and November, followed by an additional 25 basis point cut in December, with very little discrepancies between these "predictions". The Fed could push for an "emergency rate cut " before the September meeting, similar to the action taken at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, but in my opinion this outcome is very unlikely by giving a look to how Powell handled these situations and his general "hawkish" behavior. In the meantime, the S&P500 saw more than 6% correction during the last 3 weeks and fear is rising fast among investors, with the F&G index reaching 27, very close to extreme fear. The question that meanders my mind is: "With all of this fear about a recession ramping up, will market makers allow people to correctly position themselves? The case for an "hard landing" is surely strong, but with the U.S. presidential elections on the way I believe they need to maintain the waters quite calm and reassure people that the economy is pretty strong. Votes are the only thing that matters and they won't get any if the mass is confused and scared. To me, the most logical outcome should be maintaining the confidence quite high, contributing to the last leg higher on the S&P500 before the real recession comes. For the crypto sphere, like it or not, Trump is needed. Trump is direct and with his "mass-spoon feeding" nourishes expectations. Just take a look at how people reply below Watcher Guru's posts on Trump, watch at how many individuals changed their vision about him due to his "pro-BTC" policy. Kamala isn't the right personality to fulfill this aim. So, to conclude, I'm not expecting a recession to kick in shortly when everyone expects it but instead it will be "postponed" in 2025, probably. At least, in my head.