kong
2K posts
小出生 @pasternak 终于被告了，怪不得女朋友也被撬了，干死了icm整个赛道，不得好死，这轮我最大的回撤就是相信了icm这个叙事😭
不过即使是现在，我依然相信这个赛道是加密未来的道路，过几天分享一下这个赛道目前的进展
Ash@ahboyash
中文
kong retweetledi
刚才看到有人说这种钱很好挣，我觉得大家可能还是想的简单了，对于 river pippin 之前一直都有这种走势，今天从技术分析角度和大家探讨一下这背后是在做什么.首先这种现象都是mm自己在调仓，自己账户间的行为:
1. CVD减少，意味着主动卖增加(谁在卖？卖给谁? 开空开始平多?)
2.OI增加(新增的仓位来自己于买方还是卖方？)
3. 价格不变，说明bid有巨量的买单(谁在买？开多还是平空？)
所以结合去看就很清晰了，oi新增，说明在开仓，mm账户A在下方挂了大量买单(开仓)，mm账户B开仓市价做空去吃这些买单，所以oi一直上涨(多空双向开仓)，cvd一直下降，主动sell不断上升，价格一直不变(下面巨量买单承接)，所以这就是主力正常的多空双开的行为，为后面的操作做铺垫而已，如果你以为在送钱，你可能太小看操盘手了...
中文
kong retweetledi
kong retweetledi
The market looks weak amid the ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran
But many builders on @base remain incredibly strong.
From @FelixCraftAI $FELIX to @KellyClaudeAI $KellyClaude @JunoAgent $JUNO and @santisairi $SAIRI - they’re all building pieces of an on-chain economy on Base
Dany@100xdany
Base @base is still my home, the place where I feel safest and most confident. Sometimes I think about trying Solana or BNB Chain, but honestly I’ve never felt confident enough to make decisions on those chains. What about you guys?
English
kong retweetledi
No matter how bad the times are, remember:
People gamble. Always have, always will.
When I think through the best metas and look into the future, I see 2 that I can guarantee will stick and lead to the most fun, longer-term games.
1) The Speculative Access Bridge:
The best games come from external metas with global scale: robotics, AI, here the average investor is currently gated. You can't speculate on robotics as a trencher or bet on a surge in hardware adoption without being a VC. Speculative crypto turns these high-interest industries into liquid, fractional assets that anyone can touch in real-time. It doesn't matter if it’s "real" value or just fugazi; it’s about giving people immediate exposure to the world’s biggest narratives.
2) Reflexive Loop Metas
The real power is in linking ponzinomics to live network effects and content generation. When you move the game onto continuous metrics: like GitHub stars, compute usage or content creation you create a reflexive engine. These are the ultimate Schelling points people like. The speculation drives the metric’s visibility and content creation, which brings in more users but most importantly attention, which validates the capital. It’s a loop where the "number go up" creates the very social proof needed to grow the network while you play it.
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For both of these, the best thing is that normal markets and prediction markets can't really vamp them:
Normal Markets are too slow and gated. By the time a robotics or AI breakthrough is "tradable" in TradFi, the VCs have already sucked out 100x of the value. There is no way to get "trench" exposure to a narrative as it's breaking.
Prediction Markets are parasitic and binary. They are just side-bets on an outcome the liquidity stays in the betting pool and does zero to help the project actually grow. Because they are "Yes/No," they can't capture the actual slope of a project's adoption or the non-stop nature of a network effect.
We get a 3-4 of these a year, you just have to wait for them and have ammo to fire.
English
kong retweetledi
Alts are holding super strong.
Against BTC, Alts have broken the HTF and LTF trend are are impulsing higher.
This isn't my opinion, this is the TOTAL3/BTC chart.
And this is NOT what happens when everything is all over.
You can see in the original tweet to this I shared the HTF view, and Alts have clearly bottomed against BTC.
This does not signify its over.
It signifies that:
1. BTC is being pushed further down that it should be
2. Alts have started their period of outperformance against BTC.
Again, this is not my opinion, this is simply what the chart says.
Sykodelic 🔪@Sykodelic_
Altcoins are insanely bullish here. But the timeline would have you believe the total opposite. Which sets up the perfect conditions for what comes next. Altcoin expansion. The disbelief and resignation to doom has never been greater. Almost all will disagree with this, but the upside potential here is as great as it will ever be. And this chart right here, TOTAL3/BTC, shows us absolutely everything we need to know. This is not my opinion guys... this is an objective chart that any of you can go and look at yourself. So what have we got here? As you can see I have noted that within the last cycle, TOTAL3/BTC was in a downtrend for 1,092 days... Then just as everyone capitulated, it giga fucking pumped for months on end. This cycle it has now been in a downtrend for 1,085 days... In addition, it has just about finished printing a reverse head and shoulders. Guys... It doesn't get more bullish. Yes, the vast majority of alts have been down only or sideways, but that is my very point. Altcoins are not bearish because they haven't moved... that makes them bullish(because they have so much room TO move). Altcoins would bearish if this chart had been breaking out and up only for months, like it did in 2021, and then broke structure just like I have circled in red on the chart. That is what would be classed as bearish. Because after that kind of expansion comes the contraction. That is when you should be worried. But how can they be bearish if they have not even expanded in general yet, or against BTC? The cold hard fact here that almost no one seems to understand is that nothing about the overall market setup screams top. As well as this chart we have: - Both BTC and ETH holding HTF structure - TOTAL, TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 coiling upwards - USDT.D holding bearish HTF - BTC.D at 60% completing bearish retest - ETH/BTC highly bullish All of this is coming together at the exact time that we are entering the highest probability for a market bottom. Go figure...
English
被小畜生套的死死得了😅，本来发飞轮前卖掉还是赚的，贪心了一点。看看11月有没有转机吧，如果icm叙事还在，这个价格还是很有吸引力得
Arron🐱@Arron_finance
这波 $believe 下跌抄了不少，主要是因为觉得fud其实并没有什么实际影响 1.增发，增发的筹码更多是锁仓的，直接解锁的3%，未来也是补贴生态项目的，扣掉忘记换币烧掉的流通，实际流通可能还会降 2.pump开始介入icm，首先我觉得pump的user base主要还是p小将，诚然pump上也有不少好的应用币，但总体我觉得更多喜欢应用币的用户会在believe上面选 3.上不了大所，天花板有限，首先上不了bn也可以上cb，其次 $useless 一样上了，我觉得believe并不是没有上的可能 4.ben是个出生，那这个大家也不是第一天知道了，不存在fud 在fud不成立的情况下，believe的优势还是很明显 1.icm赛道的开山，大部分人听到icm第一个想到的就是believe 2.优质的应用项目，尤其是草根项目都会优先考虑上believe平台 3.这次v2升级，pua了那么久，多少应该有点实际东西了，真的还是没有再止损我觉得也不会差多少，值搏率很高
中文
上一轮 --> Btc.d 2021年到达最高71%是21个月 post halving.
如果这一轮2月到达66-68%， 会是 22个月 post halving.
中文
有人提醒我 $DREAMS 起飞了，整整过去了半年。没啥好说的，这个团队的实力在这。之前说的唯一能让 web3 再次起飞的逻辑就是 AI agent 必然会使用区块链做结算支付，也开始慢慢应验。这里面能爆发出来很多机会，但是你们暂时还是只看到 MEME 币 ，稍微好一点的是做 infra 的。但是说实话这个技术这么简单也不需要infra。支付打通的后果一定是应用层的全面爆发，随着稳定币现在的普及，游戏板块一定是最后的那颗明珠。
朋克树懒@PunkSlerf
简单说一下上次提到的几个币的逻辑。 1. $DEGENAI DEV买回来太多了 我想他应该不至于这么底部玩障眼法 前期很火的一个币 持币地址多 DEV发点啥拉一下应该很容易 2. $DIGIMON 巫师精选之一 喊了很多次 本来就一直想买 做游戏 agent 引擎的 实际上这个赛道 还可以买 $LIMBO $LIMBO 我来回做波段已经赚了很多很多了 最近买进前10全部质押去了 3. $DREAMS 真正AI agent能玩的全链游戏 Eternum 的团队 这项目要不是发在 $STARK 早飞了 但是 $STARK 出来的团队 人品和实力是绝对没问题的 他们既然在 SOL 发币 也是想突围的 等到游戏迁移或者破圈的一天 很多人觉得这些老币都没得玩死了 实际上每次新行情开始前老币都会动一波 因为流动性一充裕起来肯定找这些盘子干净 又有群众基础的币先拉 但是得识别哪些项目方还在 愿意配合的
中文
