Kris Powers, CFA

🚨NVDA B200 rental prices spike +35% this month to all-time high > $6/hour

TrendForce update on Q4 DRAM sales. Watch just the huge growth YoY on revenue from the Big3. Samsung & SK are just raking it in w/ 43% & 25% QoQ growth respectively. Others is CXMT + other Chinese players is up 44.5% QoQ to 3.78B. As such, CXMT is already bigger than SMIC in revenue & growing fast. We will see its quarterly earning this year as it IPOs. It is now likely close to 7% mkt share, but capacity is much higher. As its yield goes up & move into more higher priced chips, its share likely goes up even more.

Kalsi has more alpha on rates than fed funds futures 👀 This is a big deal

@KobeissiLetter It’s 18 million shares and not 1.8%. Look at the y axis. It says e^7. You should repost the chart with % if you can as that would be more insightful.

A tech stock short-squeeze is coming: Short interest in the technology sector ETF, $XLK, is up to a 1.8%, the highest in at least 6 years. This percentage has DOUBLED over the last few weeks. Furthermore, on Wednesday, investors shorted over 58 million Microsoft, $MSFT, shares, representing ~0.8% of its free float, near the high end of its range over the last 5 years. Salesforce, $CRM, has ~18 million shares sold short, or ~1.9% of its free float, its 100th percentile over the last few years. All while short interest in the software ETF, $IGV, spiked to ~19% last week, near the highest on record. Short exposure is hitting multi-year highs.

Peter Steinberger is joining OpenAI to drive the next generation of personal agents. He is a genius with a lot of amazing ideas about the future of very smart agents interacting with each other to do very useful things for people. We expect this will quickly become core to our product offerings. OpenClaw will live in a foundation as an open source project that OpenAI will continue to support. The future is going to be extremely multi-agent and it's important to us to support open source as part of that.

@StockSavvyShay @fiscal_ai It’s not the same machine! lol Misleading to just say it’s their monopoly power. The machines get upgraded and more productive and that increases their price.

$ASML just raised EUV machine prices ~50% since last year to $284M per machine. This is what true monopoly power looks like when demand explodes and customers have zero alternatives. ASML is the only company on Earth that makes EUV lithography machines where $TSM + $INTC need them to produce the advanced nodes that power $NVDA + $AMD GPUs, $GOOGL TPUs and every other frontier AI accelerator.

Anthropic raised its 2026 revenue forecast by ~20%. It now sees revenue up to $18B in 2025 and $55B in 2026, and lifted its optimistic 2025–2028 path by ~40%. On that track it reaches ~$148B in 2029, while projecting $100B+ in model training costs by 2029 and a later timeline to go cash-flow positive. Source: The Information

@sam_badawi He literally says by the end of next year in the interview … so end of 2027. Where is “THIS YEAR” coming from?

$TSLA CEO Elon Musk says they will start selling humanoid robots THIS YEAR. We are adding a new fleet of devices that will require A LOT of compute to function on a local and remote scale. Think about it. More GPUs $NVDA $AMD More memory $MU $SNDK More fabrication and manufacturing $TSM $INTC More packaging and testing $AMKR More datacenters $NBIS $IREN Hard to be bearish.

@jukan05 Sandisk’s poor execution and low market share regarding eSSDs is well known by the market but arguably this leaves significant room for upside for them: dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch…

This is truly an excellent report. I was so absorbed in reading it that I didn’t even notice an hour had passed. What surprised me most was that JPM views Kioxia as having a larger eSSD exposure than SanDisk and even named Kioxia as its top pick. I had assumed SanDisk’s eSSD exposure would be much higher than Kioxia’s.

@zephyr_z9 DRAM WFE investment has also been elevated for a while although still too low IMO:

That's so true

Taiwan electronics assembly giant Pegatron forecast triple-digit growth for its AI server business this year, led by shipments of Nvidia GB200 and GB300-based servers as well as some ASIC-based servers, media report, citing Pegatron executives at their year-end banquet. 1/2 $NVDA $TSM #Pegatron ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaki…

@ChipsandWafers This includes memory chips fabbed by SEC and SK Hynix in China, right? I.e. it is not just domestic players production and exports

$MU #SEC and #SKHynix investors need to monitor what is coming out of #China, and right now Memory Chips are flying out the door. Stay on top of the market with your ChipBook subscription: semianalysis.com/chipbook/

US Inflation has further dropped to 1.20% today. Main drivers of this latest in a series of disinflationary coolings were: - Food - mostly Eggs - Household durables - particularly housekeeping supplies - Alcohol & tobacco - mostly alcoholic beverages Our number is derived by aggregating millions of real-time price data points every day to calculate a year-over-year CPI % rate. It is comparable but not identical to the survey-based official headline inflation released monthly by the BLS, which was 2.7% for December.

Global AI Tracker Update Generative AI Website Worldwide Traffic Share - Key Takeaways: → ChatGPT's decline stops, with share up 0.1%. → Gemini continues growing its share. → Grok surpasses DeepSeek for the first time. 🗓️ 12 Months Ago: ChatGPT: 86.6% Gemini: 5.3% Perplexity: 1.9% DeepSeek: 1.6% Claude: 1.5% Copilot: 1.3% 🗓️ 6 Months Ago: ChatGPT: 78.3% Gemini: 8.7% DeepSeek: 4.5% Grok: 2.6% Perplexity: 1.6% Claude: 1.5% Copilot: 1.2% 🗓️ 3 Months Ago: ChatGPT: 72.9% Gemini: 13.3% DeepSeek: 4.1% Perplexity: 2.4% Grok: 2.4% Claude: 2.0% Copilot: 1.2% 🗓️ 1 Month Ago: ChatGPT: 66.8% Gemini: 19.5% DeepSeek: 3.8% Grok: 3.0% Perplexity: 2.1% Claude: 2.0% Copilot: 1.2% 🗓️ Today (January 16): ChatGPT: 64.6% Gemini: 22.0% Grok: 3.5% DeepSeek: 3.3% Claude: 2.1% Perplexity: 1.9% Copilot: 1.1%