
Crypthagoras
536 posts

Crypthagoras
@kryftokleftis
Earth to moon and back only with a piece of bread.






A former World Bank president has sounded the alarm, revealing that the Federal Reserve has lost over a trillion dollars—and counting—turning it into nothing more than a massive hedge fund for the rich and powerful. He claims the Fed is borrowing money from banks at 5.4% interest, then pouring it into government bonds, creating the illusion that the government’s financial situation is better than it actually is. He warns that this scheme isn’t just limited to the U.S.—it’s happening across central banks worldwide.





"2024: Everyone is wrong in the market" This is my mid 2024 market view, into 2025, and we will talk about: Bitcoin, S&P500, DXY, FED rates and the potential recession that should come If you don't know my January 2024 outlook, here's a link, go check it out: x.com/chifoicristian… In there you will see my first S&P500 target of $5500 reached, and also Bitcoin's new all time high before the halving, and today we'll update that outlook to see where we are in the market for the next 6-12 months This is a serious post, and later on I shall return to my trolling bears posts, slashing them open and making fun of them, because being a bear is not profitable unless you find a small window of opportunity - which we shall discuss also Hint: it's smaller than any bear's wife's pussy, but still bigger than any bear's penis Enough! Let's begin! 1. S&P500 index & FED Rates Ahh, a story as old as time, or a bear's insuccess FED Rates are a lagging indicator to know how hot the markets are, but still they give a pretty good tell for when there will be problems. a) September 2007: after 1 year of maintaining rates at 525 bps, we have the first cut, and after 5 more cuts, market was still pretty hot, no sign of recession and big drawdowns. After those 6 cuts, the soft landing narrative installs - "market no dump bro, we fine, we bid" Soft landing meant 2-3 FOMC where FED maintained rates again - THIS IS WHERE PROBLEMS START! During the entire period of cuts, then soft landing - 9 months in total - market remained HOT b) July 2019: after 6 months of maintaining rates at 250 bps, we have the first cut, and 2 cuts after (Sept and Nov 2019) After those 3 cuts, soft landing narrative and 2 FOMCs with no rate cuts: Dec & Jan - and big problems in March, 3rd FOMC that brought rates to zero-ish My guess: this time is not different Right now we have September 2024 for first rate cut (makes sense after 1y of maintaining rates, just like 2007 high rates of 525 bps, and now 550 bps) We should have 3-5 rate cuts, which could mean Sept to January-March time, then some soft landing narrative for 2-3 FOMCs with rates maintained, then a global event, again. SPX up target is $6000ish, down target is $3500+ See my original January 2024 market view, with just the timeline that is different. So basically we could get an extended period of time to reach my targets. Next up... 2. DXY Nothing changed on my DXY view, just the timing. Period 3 should come after the "soft landing" narrative, that means the $ printer machine would go berserk like no other time in American history The Dollar would find its way thru the global economy much easier, much faster, thanks to stablecoins, but this also means double digit inflation on the next wave, 2026+ This would take US assets to a parabolic mania, until end of decade - check my #roaringtwenties posts 3. Bitcoin (& crypto) Based on the short experience with FED rates, maybe this time could be different (Wall Street owned) a) 2019 July first cut: as consensus hit the market, euphoria installed, BTC going from 7400$ to 14000$ in a matter of weeks But then had a downtrend until the soft landing narrative, which meant a last drink before the pandemic war (global event, just like GFC in 2008) Being a speculative 100 bill $ asset, after the first rate cut, its price action failed to follow the S&P, but that could be different today b) September 2024 first rate cut: this could differ (maybe we get a July or Nov/December cut, we would update plan later), but we play the hand we're dealt Either scenario 1 or 2 in play, we're missing a leg up to 90-100k, as euphoria should set in to complete this mid or complete cycle (we will find out later and will update market view) What I really don't know is if the downtrend after rate cuts is happening this time, ETFs and Wall Street, and the fact that we're at 12x the market cap for BTC as an asset, which makes it nonspeculative Which could mean that Scenario 2 is in play, so no downtrend until "soft landing" - we shall see This means that altcoins should have big rallies, as time is more important than price In 2019 for reference, we had almost no time in the market, as in half of 2022 + 2/3 of 2023, so almost no gains in the altcoin market, but... Time > price! More time and price not moving, more agressive pumps later 1.4 trillion $ is my next target before we can talk about trend change, just as BTC next leg up, and maybe an 120-170k extended leg to complete the cycle This could lead to a left translated cycle, but we will see, because the next major printing after the "soft landing narrative" means that scarce asset pump hardest and longest. Just give a follow @ChifoiCristian and stay tuned, it doesn't cost anything. We shall bathe in the blood of our bears and after they're dead, we shall wear their pelts, imbearsonating them to be aware of the next global event after the "soft landing" Hazzah! I shall pin this shit onto my profile















Czech central bank meeting Thursday to vote on allocating up to 5% of reserves to Bitcoin 🤯 The United States can’t wait 6 months. We need to go now…





















