KBB

@appledog_xyz 😂

@krymeb every CT on th now😂

How can I claim free offer from GPT ? Keep decline all myy card . Any suggestion ?

@AudioOfff @PolymarketDevs Need to write your own :-)

@PolymarketDevs Will there be rust sdk?

Following up on the gamma API pagination migration As a reminder, /markets and /events will be deprecated on May 1, 2026. The new cursor-based endpoints (/markets/keyset and /events/keyset) offer better performance and reliability. If you haven't migrated yet, please do so before the deadline. Happy to help if you need anything.

@stevibe Gemma4 is surprisingly good

I gave two MoE models the same vibe coding challenge Qwen3.6 35B A3B (31.8GB) vs Gemma4 26B A4B (23.3GB) Stack: > Unsloth Q6_K_XL > llama.cpp > Model-card recommended sampling for each 4 prompts, side-by-side. Which one do you think wins?

@ramperxx Forget about dry or no exec runs, the only way to iterate successfully is to risk some capital. You won’t see how crappy polymarkets orderbook or WS connection is until you try to execute real trades.

99% of trading bots fail for the same reason my friend spent two years documenting exactly why most bots are optimized and tested on the exact same historical data the backtest looks perfect live trading is a disaster the bot didn't find an edge it memorized the chart the moment the market moves differently, it collapses there are two types of backtesting vectorized - fast, applies operations to the entire dataset at once no concept of state, no commissions, no slippage looks great on paper, lies to you in practice event-driven - processes data bar by bar, exactly like live trading commissions deducted on every trade slippage eats into every entry and exit the same strategy, tested both ways, produces completely different results then there's the parameter optimization trap you run a grid search across hundreds of fast/slow SMA combinations find the perfect parameters test them on the same data you used to find them and call it a successful backtest that's not optimization, that's overfitting walk-forward analysis is the only honest method optimize parameters on 12 months of data test on the next 3 months the bot never saw shift the window forward, repeat across the entire dataset if the edge holds across every single window, it's real if it only works on one period, you got lucky

@0x_spicyvibe @PolymarketTrade @Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz @MyriadMarkets It’s arbitrage, no win rate metric needed xD

@krymeb @PolymarketTrade @Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz @MyriadMarkets Woow superb what’s your win rate ?

be 100% honest no cap 🧐 which prediction market are you actually using right now… and why ? drop your pick with real reason in the replies !!!

@direkturcrypto Try gemma4

kalau semisal ~$10/bulan dapet unlimited model qwen3.5-27b worth it ngga ya ? rata2 konsumsi token openclaw itu 60k - 100k sekali request. tapi apakah cukup qwen3.5-27b ini untuk kebutuhan openclaw / hermes ? rencana mau nyari yg bisa di ajak konsoran sewa 1 GPU untuk running qwen3.5-27b itu

@appledog_xyz It seems snappier than 4.6 and gives longer more detailed output for now

Anythought on Opus 4. 7 ?

@usePolyArb I have a better idea to catch latency, dm if serious

We’re building a latency Football bot for Polymarket. Target: operational before the World Cup. Save this. The principle: pro sports feeds (Sportradar, Opta) deliver pitch events in ~200-500ms. The Polymarket orderbook takes longer to reprice thin liquidity, market makers pulling quotes while they reassess. That window is the edge. Yesterday, first live test on Bayern vs Real (Champions League QF). 86th minute, Camavinga gets his second yellow. Pipeline receives the event from Sportradar 280ms after the card. “Bayern advances” market was at ~0.55. Model recomputes to ~0.68 post-red and fires a $500 order. Partial fill as expected: ~$180 caught around 0.55-0.57, the rest slipped to 0.63. Average 0.59. Market stabilized at 0.67 a few seconds later. Unrealized +$30. +6% in seconds. It’s a test. But the loop worked end to end detection, decision, fill, before the book caught up. What we learned: network latency is part of the problem. The real bottleneck is orderbook depth. We’re competing with sharp bots, not retail on their couch. And “next goal” markets have better spreads than qualification markets. Pivoting there. What we’re building before June: fill routing across 12 venues via Jito atomic bundles. Low-signal event modeling (dangerous fouls, injuries, tactical shifts). UMA oracle hedging. Node co-location near Sportradar servers. Why the World Cup matters. 104 matches in 39 days. $2.5B+ in projected prediction market volume. Deep liquidity means bigger positions fill cleanly. Thin liquidity in group stages means wider spreads. Both environments leave serious money on the table. 56 days to ship. We’re on it.

@Poly_VPN @usePolyArb Isn’t London geoblocked ? I am using Ireland and get 2ms ping to poly

@usePolyArb 90ms A trade is ages in polymarket, price will already move a number of ticks. You can't compete with these kinds of latency, we help traders achieve sub 30ms taker orders with our infrastrcture, check us out: poly-vpn.xyz

@usePolyArb You use pure filtering or llm-assisted matching ?

@Mikocrypto11 Doesn’t work because the implied volatility is useless in those short time frames

3 周，+$411K 不是靠预测 是用 Black-Scholes，在 Polymarket 上“定价” 这个 bot 做的其实很简单： 把 Up/Down 市场，当成数字期权 发生 → $1 不发生 → $0 然后用一套华尔街老模型，去算“它应该值多少钱” 12,000 笔交易，日均利润 $21,631 核心逻辑： 市场价格 = 当前隐含概率 模型价格 = 理论公允价格 Black-Scholes 输入三件事： 当前价格（S₀） 剩余时间（T） 波动率（σ） 公式： C = S₀ · Φ(d₁) − K · e⁻ʳᵀ · Φ(d₂) 你不需要完全理解公式 只需要看一件事： 市场给 0.60 模型算 0.72 这 0.12 的差值，就是 edge 然后执行： 发现差值 → 进场 → 等收敛 → 退出 这类系统的本质很清晰： 不是去猜方向，而是去纠正定价 问题在这： 当所有人都在“判断涨跌”的时候，你是继续参与预测，还是开始问—— 这个价格，到底算不算错？

@carlosindex02 @ArbBets20 Yes you can, it’s working well for me :-)

You can arbitrage with prediction markets. You dont need to gamble.

@TyroneC__ Health insurance is not 1,300 a month unless you are insured with a private company. It’s around 300 with AOK etc.

Being self-employed in germany is the endboss. If you can make it here you can make it anywhere. I pay: - 35-40% tax - 1.300€ in health insurance / month Every. Single. Month. Paying for health insurance is like renting a second flat that i never use. This is a ton of pressure for smaller entrepreneurs on top of all the bureaucracy you have to tackle. And no the healthcare system is not as good as you think.

@appledog_xyz I still haven’t touched LP rebates, so you lost because of one sided fills ?

I got 15 $ maker rebate for yesterday trade , but i loss 200 $ + , Don't believe everything you saw on CT , and it's not always as eazy as it look , Good Luck

@mfardecrouz That’s normal, also double check when selling a position, it could still be there xD

Is Polymarket glitching or what? Bought LSG at 6¢ today (market order) $2 filled position even showed up. 4-5 mins later is position gone. Funds refunded couldn't even see it in history? Is this real or wot

@realistnft @Abomination81 Not sure what you mean by books but it’s very simple cross platform arbitrage. I am doing poly kalshi but you can do it with any sport betting platform that give you api access.

@krymeb @Abomination81 Which books are you using?

Want to know the secret to why sports betters, bet 50k to 1m a game? Here you go. Its simple. They arent. A little secret, and why I dont share my wallets. Wallets are on the blockchain, and that can be traced. Pretty simply. I went on a journey a long time ago to see who some of these monster betters are. This led me to discover that they are arb bots. They are not betting 1m that the Sox win. They are buying the sox win for 54c. AND betting on another platform... ie kalishi, draftkings, random sports betting platforms, that they lose. The combined cost of both bets is under 1 dollar. That means they dont care who wins, they are making money no matter what. This is also the reason that accounts with 9m in losses exist. Its not some degen gambler, its just a pair of arb bots that happens to lose more than the other side.

@appledog_xyz I am down 20% in daily execution count, definitely less takers right now

Everyone is maker now , who gonna be Taker then ?