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Sunrise from the highest skyscraper in Europe: the Lakhta Center in St. Petersburg.
The spire is above the cloud cover and gets a bit more sun...🌞
vk.com/video-23975708…
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kvk
10.3K posts
@postsocialismus @MartinSauerbrey "EU calculus that would have acknowledged UKR and RU economic interdependence... was always missing."
This, great, observation doesn't go far enough.
Where did the *active* EU policy of breaking UKR/RU economic interdependence come from? Who pushed it? Why?
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Well. Read the many other actually well researched books on the topic, foremost Paul D'Anieris "Ukraine and Russia" which Katchanovski not even mentions in his "well researched" pamphlet.
Lena Petrova@LenaPetrovaOnX
Professor Ivan Katchanovski’s (@I_Katchanovski) book "The Origins of the Ukraine-Russia War" is a well-researched, must-read examination of one of the defining geopolitical conflicts of the modern era. The book challenges readers to engage with the complex political, historical, and international forces that shaped the war. Unlike the prevailing Western narrative, Prof. Katchanovski's deep understanding of Ukrainian history, society, and political realities provides factual insights essential to understanding the origins of the war and current developments. Prof. Katchanovski writes that the roots of the Ukraine-Russia war lie in the violent, West-backed, political crisis that emerged during and after the 2014 Maidan coup, which subsequently evolved into a deeply polarized internal conflict with significant political, financial, and military US and European interventionism. The subsequent war in Donbas, the collapse of democratic institutions inside Ukraine, NATO-Russia tensions, and competing far-right, neo-Nazi and nationalist factions in Ukraine created the conditions that ultimately escalated into the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war. One of the book’s greatest strengths is its careful use of evidence from Ukrainian, Russian, and Western sources, which allows readers to see how competing interpretations of the conflict have developed over time. The book opens space for a much-needed, serious discussion of the origins of the war, the roles the US and European actors played in facilitating it, and the broader failures of diplomacy and international security in Eastern Europe. The book is available in open access. Do yourself a favor - download it, read and educate yourself using much-needed, credible research written by a Ukrainian-Canadian academic: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/9…
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@atrupar @ntrickett16 MIN doesn't know about utilization. 🤦♂️
It's not installed power, it's what gets generated.
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MIN: Do you know how much new energy China put online last year?
BURGUM: Intermittent or base load?
MIN: All energy. 543 GW. How much was renewable? 434 GW.
BURGUM: But only when the wind is blowing and sun is shining
MIN: Meanwhile, the US put up 53 GW of new energy last year -- less than 10% of China. You're clear bias against renewables is harming our national security.
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@RussianTrollCap Also a large part of Russian (and Canadian) energy consumption is weather related, unlike Spain or China
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If you believe this you're genuinely NGMI.
Russia simply has much lower energy efficiency and only a part of this gap is "industrial".
Brian McDonald@BrianMcDonaldIE
This is a better indicator of economic scale and real industrial capacity than nominal GDP, so show it to anyone who still claims Russia’s economy is basically “the size of Italy’s.” You can inflate GDP with financial activity, but you can’t really fake terawatt-hours.
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@bneeditor @FtwSte @Volod_Ishchenko @failure1991 Me, I'd love to read about the Ukr CB currency sales. Last year they sold ~$35 B. This year they are on track to sell ~$45 B.
What is happening? Where does this money come from (reserves are not falling)? Where do they go? Back to Europe? Private savings? Is this sustainable?
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QME
What happens in the Russian military-industrial complex is clearly more than surviving under sanctions.
Anyway, the common problem of such analyses is the lack of any comparative perspective on Russia (in particular, the economic dynamics in the EU, not speaking about Ukraine) and the lack of recognition of how the world economy at large is changing.
Vladimir Metelkin@vldmrmetelkin
While refuting exaggerations like “Russia is finished,” we must not go to the other extreme and overstate the country’s achievements. Yes, the Russian economy has proven highly adaptable, but it survives through maximum strain on old assets and labor depletion. The industrial base of Russia, such as machine tools and microelectronics, remains critically dependent on imported means of production. There is no domestic modernization (it’s severely constrained under such conditions of war and sanctions). Factories are squeezing maximum output from existing, aging equipment by running in multiple shifts. Russia is attempting to replace Western equipment with Chinese alternatives. This reinforces Russia's technological dependence, under much harsher external conditions. The economy is facing technological simplification, relying on an extensive, low-productivity growth. This has been well-documented and is regularly reported, even by loyalist economic think tanks. Surviving sanctions is not the same as a structural technological independence.
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@tc_thrane @MobilityDenmark @ilyasdogru @electric_nick_ @electricfelix @leRaffl @henrikssommer @Arpe_DK 🚨Subsidies work!🚨
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@Doveofwar @russianforces @walberque It makes a great contribution to the Thesaurus, no doubt!
"stunning series of failures, faltering, teetering"
A gold mine for a Negative Linguistics connoisseur like myself!
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@kvk4 @russianforces @walberque Isn't this post a great example? How to turn news about a successful launch into a paragraph that is 90% about Russia failing.
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@russianforces @walberque You don't have access to the "Russian Pundit Thesaurus"?
Everything in Russia is teetering, malign, sluggish, reactive, on the brink, stumbling, losing, running out of momentum, struggling to cope, mafia-style, slipping.
You should get one! More speaker engagements guaranteed!
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@walberque Why "Shows the risks of relying on life-extensions rather than new systems"? Sarmat is a new system. And the triad would have been fine without Sarmat.
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@Stefan_Hajek It's all about utilization. The larger the battery, the lower utilization. If li-ion is used daily, and flow every other day, it should be 0.5x the price for the same economics. Once a week - 0.15x. Once a month - 0.03x.
Tricky.
Which is why fuel-based systems are better.
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5/
in China sind schon730 MWh Redox-Flow-Systeme am Netz, in Laufenburg (CH) entsteht eine, in der Lausitz will die LEAG eine bauen.
Nun hat 1 Startup aus d Nähe v Frankfurt/M "unicorn" Status (1 Mrd Bewertung), dass Redox-Flow-Batterien baut. ua Samsung und Strabag investoren
Deutsch
#Batterien speichern derzeit meist nur Strom für 1 oder 2 Stunden. Die 3 GW derzeit installierte Leistung an stationären Gross-Akkus haben daher auch nur wenig mehr als 3 GWh Gesamtkapazität. "Für eine deutsche Dunkelflaute helfen sie daher nicht"
1/n
wiwo.de/technologie/fo…
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@Volod_Ishchenko @failure1991 Have you seen *anyone* who realistically covers UKR economy day to day?
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@failure1991 And the labor shortages are not an unsolvable problem for Russia. Again, in comparative perspective, the same problem is far worse in Ukraine.
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@kvk4 And then it’s a one way street until you’re left with just the physical inputs that can’t be substituted. China’s starting to electrify long haul trucking at scale. Have fun
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Given the significantly improved competitiveness of substitution options and evident consumer preferences in EMs in response, the question is where demand is being destroyed more so than whether it's "negligible." Demand is definitely more elastic now.
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi
Morgan Stanley on Brent crude oil prices: demand destruction negligible until $140+
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@ntrickett16 "More" by how much?
They need 9x more energy to get to half of Western consumption.
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@kvk4 You can cope, but you can’t hide. Literally every bull case for demand growth relied on those markets consuming more.
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@bneeditor He is right -- but which countries? Clearly Germany would be paying more...
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I just wrote about this
Europe doesn’t do collective debt because the rich countries like German don’t want to take responsibility for the poor countries like Spain because they think they will borrow too much and waste of money.
However there has been one collective EU bond issue to raise €750 billion (not €650bn as in this article) to raise cash for Post Covid recovery .
now the EU is about to issue a second collective bond for €90 billion to support Ukraine.
Letta is right that this money would save on borrowing costs. Good morning importantly, it’s a step towards a Federated Europe.
Many countries are against them because obviously they don’t want to give up their sovereignty but personally I think there’s no other choice giving him a massive changes in geopolitical balance of power. Euro has to be united to meet the challenge of competing with the America’s and Asia led by China.
With a huge amount of money available as collective borrowing Europe cld build things like a trans European high-speed network of links that should be a significant economic multiplier.
Put it this way: China is in the middle of building exactly this rail network and his economy is booming. If we don’t build one Europe before behind. Stuff like that.
POLITICOEurope@POLITICOEurope
Expanding joint EU debt issuance would save governments billions of euros in borrowing costs, former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta tells POLITICO in an interview. politi.co/4d30voM
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Nick T on the Russian economy as 'expecting less'. Link in the next tweet
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@postsocialismus Just classify them as dugouts for the imminent Russian invasion -- could include them in the 5% NATO commitment, too!
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In Denmark this is done with a single operative.
Clean Up Britain@cleanupbritain
Why don't we do this in Britain? We could dig trenches across every housing estate in Britain and install these underground waste units that only need a two-man operation to empty. Simple, efficient, and clean. No more overflowing bins and bags cluttering the streets.
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All this to say that structural peak demand scenarios still using 2030-2032 as their reference point for the sake of conservative consensus are missing how much more flexibility there is now in response to shocks at lower real-terms price levels.
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@bneeditor @stefan_demetz Temptation to increase spend as more oil revenue flows in will be great though. Even if that revenue is stashed in the NWF. Especially at the time when non-oil revenue is above plan.
I think it is certain that they will expand spending. The big question is by how much.
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After 4 years you still do not grasp the Russia advances lots of payments in first few months, then reduces the deficit later in the year
Bloomberg is for idiots
🥱
Giovanni Staunovo🛢@staunovo
#Russia’s budget gap widened to a record despite a jump in oil revenue amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The deficit for the first four months of the year expanded to 5.9 trillion rubles ($79.5 billion), well above the full-year plan. The shortfall, equal to 2.5% of gross domestic product compared to a planned 1.6%, highlights how even surging demand for Russian crude stemming from the global energy crunch isn’t enough to ease Moscow’s fiscal pressures amid continued heavy spending on its invasion of Ukraine. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The correlation of economic forces isn’t on their side.
Kirill Shamiev@kirlant
Another piece of evidence that Russia is probably moving towards a ceasefire. Kremlin officials under Kirienko began drafting an "image of victory" playbook in late winter 2025: talking points to sell Russians on a possible peace deal with Ukraine -- Dossier Center reported 1/5
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@postsocialismus @ntrickett16 And the Ukrainians also know how great their economy is doing. So much reporting on that my head is spinning.
Going for the win!
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@ntrickett16 And once again what's missing is that Ukrainians know that time and the ticking economic tide is not on Russia's side. Why do all these analyses not even acknowledge this?
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@baunov @la_Biennale Yes, Khrushov was a Mr. Nice Guy. Artists could create freely.
You know well that most Russian cultural icons worked under some form of censorship for years.
But I guess since you now employ the "you're just dumb" argument the rest is pointless.
I leave you with this reminder.
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After Stalin’s death - and after 40 years of silence, her husband’s execution, her son’s imprisonment, and the emigration or killing of so many friends — we had far more reason to believe she would never live to see such a moment at all. With one collection of poetry published at home in 1921 and the next one in 1965.
You can play dumb with innocent Italians, but not with me.
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Per quanto riguarda il #Padiglione russo, che oggi ha aperto parzialmente alla Biennale di Venezia (@la_Biennale) nei giorni riservati alla stampa e mostrerà il suo volto menzognero attraverso una finestra nei giorni aperti al pubblico, la situazione è molto semplice.
Oggi esistono tre categorie di artisti russi. Quelli a cui il regime russo permette di lavorare ed esporre in Russia (tra loro ci sono filogovernativi, neutrali o anche contrari alla guerra — ma solo privatamente, non nelle loro opere). Quelli a cui il regime russo proibisce di lavorare o esporre — soprattutto a causa della loro posizione contro la guerra o in favore della libertà, oppure perché nelle loro opere si “vedono” droghe, segni di LGBT, mancanza di rispetto verso la religione o verso una certa “storia russa” (per esempio, anche la semplice empatia per le vittime delle repressioni sovietiche è ormai motivo di divieto, dato che il Museo del Gulag è stato chiuso e “Memorial” è stato dichiarato organizzazione terroristica fuori legge). La terza categoria comprende gli artisti che, per poter lavorare onestamente e mostrare le proprie opere, sono emigrati.
Se il Padiglione russo alla Biennale di Venezia desse spazio a tutte le tre queste categorie, rappresenterebbe l’arte russa contemporanea. Finché dà spazio solo alla prima categoria, rappresenta la dittatura russa contemporanea.
Finché il regime politico russo proibisce una parte enorme dell’arte russa all’interno del paese, non ha né il diritto morale né quello giuridico di rappresentarla all’estero. Un padiglione in cui a metà — se non alla maggior parte — dell’arte russa contemporanea non è concesso spazio a causa delle persecuzioni politiche dovrebbe essere chiuso e, in realtà, non avrebbe dovuto aprire affatto.
Italiano
@Matteopace15 @baunov @la_Biennale I don't know why you are not reading the *original* post.
You keep bringing up irrelevant points. Final time. Here is what Baunov is saying.
First category: "Those whom the Russian regime allows to work and exhibit in Russia".
That's Pasternak.
Have a great day!
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@kvk4 @baunov @la_Biennale This book is not Doctor Zivago (which had been banned in URSS till 1988) but Стихи о Грузии. (poetry about Georgia), published in 1958 in Tbilisi. Those writers could publish ONLY what the government allowed, the rest was banned.
moscowbooks.ru/bookinist/book…
Română