William Alberque

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William Alberque

William Alberque

@walberque

Proud analyst for the Pacific Forum. I can identify warhead types and rare b-sides with alacrity and alarming accuracy.

iPhone: 41.303814,-95.896690 Katılım Temmuz 2008
813 Takip Edilen11K Takipçiler
William Alberque
William Alberque@walberque·
@NicoleGrajewski The deeper problem is that civil society relies on @nukestrat for nuclear warhead estimates, so if he's making and compounding errors, we're screwed. Instead of simply updating reports, we must regularly rebaseline assumptions, e.g., check infrastructure and force structure. 2/2
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William Alberque
William Alberque@walberque·
@NicoleGrajewski It's great, but overemphasizes the obvious fact that the MFA is the last to know. It should go without saying that MOD rarely if ever tells MFA the deepest secrets before talks, with both OPSEC and plausible deniability at work here. Russia's just the same - remember INF? 1/2
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Nicole Grajewski
Nicole Grajewski@NicoleGrajewski·
Fascinating and helpful piece by @dex_eve on the analytical failures of expert communities, including his first hand account of discovering the Chinese silos with @ArmsControlWonk
Nicole Grajewski tweet media
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nobu akiyama
nobu akiyama@nobu_akiyama·
ほう。首席随員は石破さんだそうで。 天皇、皇后両陛下、6月13日からオランダ、ベルギー訪問 閣議決定:朝日新聞 asahi.com/articles/ASV5C…
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Under Secretary of State Thomas G. DiNanno
Thank you @RKupiecki and @ZalewskiPawel for hosting my delegation for in-depth discussions on U.S.-Poland defense cooperation and how our countries work together in today's challenging geostrategic environment. 🇺🇸 🇵🇱
Under Secretary of State Thomas G. DiNanno tweet mediaUnder Secretary of State Thomas G. DiNanno tweet mediaUnder Secretary of State Thomas G. DiNanno tweet media
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William Alberque
William Alberque@walberque·
The tl/dr: a successful test launch after a stunning series of failures by Russia. Without this missile, Russia's strategic triad would falter, hence the effort put into righting a teetering program. Shows the risks of relying on life-extensions rather than new systems.
Etienne Marcuz@Etienne_Marcuz

🚀🇷🇺 Tir d'un ICBM SARMAT par la Russie - pas de rupture stratégique 🇷🇺☢️ La Russie a procédé aujourd'hui à un nouvel essai de son nouveau missile balistique intercontinental (ICBM) lourd RS-28 SARMAT, cette fois-ci avec succès. Ce tir était très attendu car il suit une série d'échecs très médiatiques, dont les deux derniers s'étaient conclus dès les 1ères secondes de vol, entraînant des explosions massives. Il était initialement prévu en avril, mais avait été reporté, probablement afin de s'assurer que tout fonctionnerait. En effet, un nouvel échec aurait eu des conséquences particulièrement néfastes pour ce vecteur symbolisant le renouveau de l'arsenal nucléaire russe, et en aurait miné la crédibilité technologique. Si le SARMAT est régulièrement présenté comme l'arme ultime pouvant raser un pays comme la France, dans les faits il ne constitue en rien une rupture stratégique. Il est destiné à remplacer les ICBM RS-20 VOEVODA conçu en Ukraine durant l'ère soviétique. Si un accord avait été signé entre Kiev et Moscou pour en assurer la maintenance après l'effondrement de l'URSS, l'invasion de la Crimée par la Russie avait stoppé toute coopération, compliquant énormément le maintien en service de ces missiles qui emportent entre 5 et 10 têtes nucléaires chacun. Cela posait la question de la fiabilité, et donc de la crédibilité de cette composante. Ainsi, plutôt qu'une rupture, le SARMAT permet à la Russie de maintenir une flotte d'ICBM lourds, permettant notamment de cibler les champs de silos états-uniens. Le SARMAT apporte quelques améliorations, notamment une phase propulsée plus courte destinée à tromper d'éventuels futurs intercepteurs en phase propulsée - l'objectif du Golden Dome de l'administration Trump. Car contrairement à ce que présentent régulièrement les propagandistes du Kremlin, le SARMAT n'est pas destiné à être utilisé contre l'Europe, mais bien en priorité contre les Etats-Unis. Donc oui, cet événement est important pour la Russie. Mais il ne change en aucun cas l'équilibre stratégique mondial, il ne fait que le maintenir. Enfin, d'autres tirs sont attendus, dont un tir de missile SINEVA depuis un sous-marin en mer de Barents. Cette séquence ressemble aux exercices annuels des forces stratégiques russes, qui se déroulent habituellement en octobre. Elle vise probablement à maintenir l'image de la Russie en tant que puissance militaire de premier plan, après la quasi annulation du défilé militaire du 9 mai - pas de véhicules ni d'avions de combat - en raison de la menace ukrainienne. Vidéo: Ministère russe de la Défense

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William Alberque
William Alberque@walberque·
RT @Etienne_Marcuz: 🚀🇷🇺 Tir d'un ICBM SARMAT par la Russie - pas de rupture stratégique 🇷🇺☢️ La Russie a procédé aujourd'hui à un nouvel e…
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William Alberque
William Alberque@walberque·
Another great example of China exploiting the gaps in governance and transparency and grey zone tactics to advance their broader goals. @IndoPacSentinel Building national intelligence capabilities to address this gap is a good first step, but will it be enough?
Japan Forward@JAPAN_Forward_

China exploits bureaucratic seams to wage gray-zone warfare. The First Island Chain must counter with cheap, shared intelligence and transparency. japan-forward.com/chinas-irregul… #ChinaIrregularWarfare #SubmarineCables #FirstIslandChain #GrayZoneWarfare #MaritimeMilitia

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William Alberque
William Alberque@walberque·
Great to see the continuing legacy of the Nuclear Security Summits as countries continue to reduce the use of HEU in civilian applications. 111 research reactors and medical isotope faciities that used HEU have shut down, with almost 7,000 kgs of HEU repatriated or disposed.
IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️@iaeaorg

The IAEA has played a key role in the successful shipment of high enriched uranium from Venezuela to the United States, in a carefully planned joint mission carried out under tight security as such nuclear material can pose a proliferation risk or security threat if it falls into the wrong hands. Read more: atoms.iaea.org/4uGyNnJ

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Nicole Grajewski
Nicole Grajewski@NicoleGrajewski·
Had a back and forth with someone on here about this a few weeks ago, I assumed they parked them in Armenia but it was Pakistan where Iranian military aircraft were stored
Jennifer Jacobs@JenniferJJacobs

Scoop via @CBSNews: As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park in its country, potentially shielding them from US airstrikes, sources told @JimLaPorta and me. Days after Trump announced the ceasefire in early April, Tehran sent multiple aircraft to Pakistan Air Force Base Nur Khan. Among the military hardware was an Iranian Air Force RC-130, a reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering variant of the Lockheed C-130 Hercules tactical transport aircraft. cbsnews.com/news/pakistan-…

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KyivPost
KyivPost@KyivPost·
German defense giant Rheinmetall is entering the cruise missile market with aerospace company Destinus as Europe moves to strengthen its long-range strike capabilities. The move comes after reports that the US canceled plans to deploy long-range missiles in Germany. kyivpost.com/post/75921
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
A good meeting with the CEO of Palantir Technologies, Alex Karp. Step by step, we are developing cooperation with the American defense sector. Palantir is a renowned global company with strong potential, and there certainly are areas where we can be useful to one another, strengthening the defense of Ukraine, America, and our partners. We discussed areas of technological development – both in the context of combat operations and civilian needs. We agreed that our teams will stay in touch.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський tweet mediaVolodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський tweet media
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Germany at NATO
Germany at NATO@GermanyNATO·
In Rhineland-Palatinate, NATO Ambassadors Dr Detlef Wächter and @USAmbNATO Matthew Whitaker are showcasing the strength of US-German ties. At the heart of their visit: working together to ensure a robust Alliance. #WeAreNATO 📸Bundeswehr/TaktLwG 33
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Mykhailo Fedorov
Mykhailo Fedorov@FedorovMykhailo·
Honored to welcome Boris Pistorius to Kyiv. Germany is now #1 globally in security aid to Ukraine, providing 1/3 of our total support. From Patriot missiles to $1B+ for Ukrainian drones, this aid is already delivering results: 90% drone interceptions & 5k mid-strikes per month. Excited to launch "Brave Germany" with @BRAVE1ua — a joint platform for grants & R&D in AI, UAVs, and missiles. We are building a new European security architecture rooted in Ukrainian tech & combat experience.
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GeoInsider
GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·
BREAKING: Sweden's Supreme Commander Michael Claesson, in an interview with SVT, warned that Russia may test NATO sooner than the one to five year window most alliance security services have been working with. Claesson stressed the window is now while NATO is still rearming and before defenses reach their intended strength. Claesson emphasized that Russia cannot defeat NATO militarily, so the target is alliance cohesion. He warned about a potential strike on a Baltic island not to seize territory, but to test whether every NATO member would respond to an attack on one of them. He stressed that such an operation would not require troops from Ukraine. A smaller, limited move would be enough to run that test. When asked directly when Russia might be ready he answered with one word: "Now." He added: "They know the entire Western world is getting ready. Why would one wait to exploit perceived vulnerabilities?" Asked if it sounds dangerous, Claesson did not soften it. "Yes, it is clear that it is dangerous." He stressed that Sweden and its neighbors must continue rearming, training, and maintaining readiness persistently over time. On the Baltic Sea, he pointed to Russia's growing shadow fleet and tightening escorts around those vessels as a direct and growing source of escalation risk. Asked whether the situation is worse than a few years ago Claesson said yes.
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Nicole Grajewski
Nicole Grajewski@NicoleGrajewski·
“Chinese companies are shipping hundreds of containers filled with such goods to Russia and Iran, according to Chinese customs data. Items on the packing lists range from engines to computer chips, fiber-optic cables and gyroscopes” wsj.com/world/china-is…
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