Kyle the Writer

Was given an access to Polymarket Perps $67 long SP500 with 10x leverage feels perfect Polymarket perps waitlist below:

The best filter for finding the most unusual trades this is the one i find 99% of my most interesting setups with and the main thing is i check it 24/7 everyone looks at the high volume markets: > politics, sports, crypto, elections if thats all you look at, youre missing a massive layer of opportunities my filter excludes the mainstream: > sports, geopolitics, up/down, elections, politics, bitcoin, oil, eurovision, aliens, hantavirus and keeps: > new wallets only (account age <60d) > real bets only (>$100) > position concentration >70% (wallet went deep on a single market with conviction) > pnl > -$10k (filters out dead balance) this is exactly the filter that lets me find wallets created in may with one single $20k bet on the microstrategy sells any bitcoin market or how we found the unusual bets on mexico's interest rate one wallet, one bet on a single narrative, no other trades all of this is long tail not on twitter, not in the news this is where the people who actually know something sit - open parity - click my filter - see what showed up overnight in concentrated fresh wallets direct filter link below

Congrats everyone on the NO side Thanks for playing

One entity trying to inflate the odds of a election? Polymarket: colombia presidential election 16 wallets all registered in may each has exactly 1 bet all on the same side all on the same candidate - iván cepeda before their activity cepeda was a clear underdog in a week they pushed him from the margin to 37.5% on the main election and 76.5% on first round winner this doesnt look like smart money smart money doesnt show up as a cluster of fresh wallets with one trade each this looks like a coordinated pump - someone wants the market and twitter talking about cepeda polymarket predicts the future but sometimes what you see isnt a prediction, its an attempt to fake one personally im on abelardo nobody is pumping him, but fundamentally hes ahead of the race election in 23 days well see who was right - 16 anonymous wallets or actual politics link below

Dutching World Cup Favorites - Still +EV? Possible Dutching returns: Top-5: ＞Total cost: 64.5¢ ＞Profit on $1 payout: +35.5¢ ＞ROI: +55.0% Top-7: ＞Total cost: 78.2¢ ＞Profit on $1 payout: +21.8¢ ＞ROI: +27.9% Top-10: ＞Total cost: 86.8¢ ＞Profit on $1 payout: +13.2¢ ＞ROI: +15.2% example: ＞Put $1000 into the Top-7 basket - you buy the exact same number of YES contracts for each team (roughly 1,279 contracts each) ＞If any of the 7 wins, you get $1,279 back - $279 profit (27.9%) ＞If the champion is outside the basket - you lose $1000 Important caveat: If you try to dutch too wide, the combined cost eats up almost the entire edge Your ROI drops to almost nothing, and your capital gets locked up until the final This isn't "infinite money" - it's tiny profit with massive tail risk Risks are real: a longshot champion (unlikely but possible), price slippage on big buys, and total loss if the winner falls outside your basket