老莫
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老莫
@laomo198
踩过无数Crypto坑,向内求🧘 | BTC ETH链上资金流数据分析📈 | AI x Crypto探索中🚀






怎么看川普关税被裁定违法?对市场的影响有哪些?1、这项裁决限制了总统利用《1国际经济紧急状态法案》IEEPA征收大额关税的能力,但并未阻止总统依据其他贸易法征收关税。川普此前已援引其他法律对铜、钢、铝以及其他产品进口加征关税。简单说就是对等关税、芬太尼关税都被驳回,行业关税继续。 2、最高法院的裁决本身没有直接命令大规模自动退款,而是确认关税无效,之后的关键在于已收关税是否要退还。实际退还过程将通过美国国际贸易法院(Court of International Trade, CIT)处理,印象中之前贝森特此前也表示如果关税被判无效,将发放退款。 3、如果要退税,对企业来说今年的利润会很乐观、相当于美国公司今年能增加1000多亿美金的利润。同时之后关税降低,进口商压力变小、价格走低、也利好通胀。 短期内市场会交易利润走高、通胀走低。 4、但是风险在于两点: 1)川普会怎么样反击?动用如《1974年贸易法》第122条、第232条或第301条来重新征收关税,可能导致贸易政策更碎片化、针对特定行业或国家,至少未来一点时间关税政策走向不确定性又会增加了。 2)如果退税毫无疑问财政压力进一步放大,得继续发债、债务压力更大、赤字更高。那么长债收益率又得往上走,估值承压。 这会让市场在未来处在一个利润走高、但是估值又承压的状态。 这应该是川普第二任期内最重大的政治挫折,因为其核心经济议程都是围绕着关税展开的。 Bitget 买美股:秒级入场,丝滑交易 bitget.com/markets/stocks



美国商品期货委员会主席,竟亲自给预测市场做背书。 他表示预测市场,为社会提供了好处,让普通美国民众可以对冲商业风险,比如气温上升、能源价格飙升等问题。 它们也对新闻媒体和信息传播体系,形成了一种重要的制衡。 所以商品委员会决定,采取进一步举措,确保预测市场发生在美国,留在这里。

You do not have to agree with me on which applications are and are not corposlop to use Ethereum. You do not have to agree with me on what trust assumptions are acceptable in which situations to use Ethereum. You do not have to agree with me on political topics to use Ethereum. You do not have to agree with my views on defi, decentralized social or privacy-preserving payments to use Ethereum. You do not have to agree with my views on AI to use Ethereum. You do not have to agree with my view that Berlin has the best food in Europe, suits and ties should be expunged from our culture, and YYYY-MM-DD is the best date format to use Ethereum. And you do not have to agree with me on any one of those above things to agree with me on any other. I do not claim to represent the whole Ethereum ecosystem. Ethereum is a decentralized protocol. The whole concept of "permissionlessness" and "censorship resistance" is that you are free to use Ethereum in whatever way you want, without caring about what I think, or even what anyone else in the Ethereum Foundation or even any Ethereum client developer thinks. But on the flipside, if I say that your application is corposlop, I am not "censoring" you. This has always been the flip side of the grand bargain of free speech: I am not free to shut you down, but I am free to criticize you, much as you are free to criticize me. In fact, it is *necessary* that we do this. The modern world does not call out for pretend neutrality, where a person puts on a suit and claims to be equally open to all perspectives from all of humanity and not have their own opinions. Neutrality is for protocols (like HTTP, like Bitcoin, like Ethereum), and neutrality within some scope is for some institutions. The modern world calls out for the courage to clearly state one's principles - including stating principles by pointing to negative examples, that is by criticizing the things in the world that are incompatible with one's principles - and work with those with aligned goals to build the metaverse within which those principles are taken as a baseline. Such things inherently cannot be constrained to just the layer of the protocol: any principle you have will naturally lead to conclusions, not just about how the protocol should be built, but also what should be built upon it. Furthermore, any such principle will have consequences that go beyond technology, and reach into specific questions within the larger social world. This should not be avoided. Valuing something like "freedom", and then acting as though it has consequences on technology choices, but is completely separate from everything else about our lives, is not pragmatic - it is hollow. The inevitable converse of this is that (i) a decentralized protocol must not be viewed as belonging to only one metaverse, and (ii) the borders of a metaverse are fuzzy: it is possible, and indeed it is the normal case, to align with any one on some axes and not on other axes. Linux is a technology of user empowerment and freedom, Linux is also the base layer of a lot of the world's corposlop. It's almost certainly the base layer of many things that I think are good, and you think are bad, and vice versa. Hence, if you care about Linux because you care about user empowerment and freedom, it is not enough to just build the kernel, we must also build a full-stack ecosystem compatible with those values, and explicitly accept that this is not the only way that people will use Linux, but it is one way that must be built and must be available. Ethereum is similar. Milady.







