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@NickNemo17 Raise, start a fund, publish short reports on these companies, and run a Sharpe up higher than the alleged ratios of the companies you report on. If there's no political will to regulate them, go soldier of fortune mode and kill them yourself
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TLDR: I am a recovering alcoholic with no fund, no credentials, and no lobbyist. I rebuilt myself from nothing. Then I broke into finance with no degree, no pedigree, and no permission.
I parsed SEC filings for a $31.5 billion private credit fund called Cliffwater. Not because anyone asked me to. Because nobody else would. The filings are public, but they are buried in footnotes that are not indexed, not searchable, and not structured for analysis. I have been told by fund managers that nobody even attempts this.
Billions of dollars in pension capital, and the people who manage money for a living do not bother to read the filings.
So I read them. Every loan. Every amendment. Every semi-annual PIK disclosure. 2,330 positions. I hand-researched fifty.
I found 189 loans where borrowers are paying interest with more debt instead of cash. I found over 50 loans that are not generating enough cash to service their debt at all — carried at par on the books of a fund that has never reported a losing month in 41 months.
The fund's Sharpe ratio is 3.75. Bernie Madoff — who was fabricating returns and could pick any number he wanted — ran a 3.5. He got caught because the numbers were too smooth by Markopolos. The greatest quant fund in history, Renaissance Technologies, runs a five or six.
Cliffwater is claiming risk-adjusted returns that would be impossible even if you insider-traded with perfect information every single time, because the volatility of the underlying markets would still prevent it.
Nobody asked questions.
Bloomberg confirmed 14% redemptions 48 hours after I published. S&P cut the fund's outlook to negative this week. Cash on hand fell 76% in six months.
This is not an isolated fund. This is the structure. $9.4 trillion in private equity. $3.5 trillion in private credit. They all pay their own valuation agents. The valuation agents decide what the funds are worth. No valuation agent has ever been fired for saying the number was too high.
The marks produce the NAV. The NAV produces the fees. The fees come from pensions. The pensions come from firefighters and teachers and nurses in Oregon and California and Illinois who will never read a private placement memorandum in their lives.
Wall Street ran out of rich people. The endowments were full. The sovereign wealth funds were tapped. So they went downstream — to 401(k)s, to retirement accounts, to interval funds sold to people who have no idea what they own.
1. Direct the SEC and FSOC to examine Level 3 fair value practices across interval funds and BDCs.
2. Require that valuation agents be independent of the funds they mark.
3. State publicly that the current self-marking regime creates systemic risk.
4. Mandate position-level mark disclosure for every fund that accepts pension capital.
There are two ways this ends. It breaks all at once like 2008 and we fix it. Or it rots slowly like Japan: one fund blows up, six weeks of quiet, another one, and nobody connects it for a decade while a generation of retirees gets destroyed.
I am not asking anyone to take my word for it. I am asking them to read the filings.
If you know someone in the administration, a regulator, or anyone on a legislative committee, please send this to them. One person learned this from a one-bedroom apartment. Your government can too.
The will is what is missing.
Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets)@NickNemo17
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@MurrayHillGuy1 I enjoy this life very much, minus the watching sports. I play them instead. Had more than two kids as well.
It might look mundane from the outside, but it's quite fulfilling. I never thought it was for me either, until it was. I haven't settled once.
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Israel has been pummeled all night. Based on my counts of alerts and reports of landings from open sources the number increased tonight, though there are no reports of casualties.
My Whatsapp groups are filled with people having breakdowns after not sleeping for two weeks. In Jerusalem 4 alerts were heard in a 90 minute span.
Iran has been able to increase the number of launches daily. Everyone seems angry at the IDF and Netanyahu for lying about the destruction of Iranian capabilities.
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@Polymarket What a stunning disappointment he's been. Hopefully it means he's going soft power (turning off banking, cutting off benefits, etc) and not just giving up like a phag slave to Israel
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@sl90890 @jbulltard1 Seems reasonable considering the ongoing conflict and the scale of damage it has inflicted on the world economy
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@jbulltard1 Well we’re down 6% after the market has done nothing for 6 months. We had a 20% crash one year ago, do you think we’re going to get 20% crashes every year?
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@rushicrypto The Jewish depression, because after all, it was a war for Jews and because of Jews that caused it
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@festiva1202 世界への理解を深めるために、舞台裏でたゆまず尽力している人々こそが、人類の真の原動力です。彼らのことなど、一切気になさらないでください。――アメリカより、敬意を込めて。科学者さんへ。
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@lordthisdrip >he doesn't tuck his niggas in and give them forehead kisses before bed
Phag alert
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@AbbeyRenol @adelheidx333 That's maybe the one emotion I didn't feel when watching it
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@adelheidx333 I mean is boring, the poster is tough but the show is veeeeeeeeeeeeeeery boring
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@USCCB @ArchbishpSample Sorry but I'll be on Team Christ. You can be on Team People That Killed Christ if that's your thing
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Catholics are called to reject antisemitism and the lies and conspiracies that fuel it, and to stand clearly against hatred and violence directed toward our Jewish brothers and sisters. To defend religious freedom with integrity, we must also reject antisemitism.
@ArchbishpSample @archdpdx
Watch the full video at: ow.ly/sYF550Yw6cA
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@TorahJews Sorry you're not weaseling your way out of this one. And that's hardly an exhaustive list of your crimes
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Jews are not responsible for Israel’s wars.
Jews are not responsible for Israel’s rhetoric.
Jews are not responsible for Zionists’ exploitation of Judaism.
Jews are not responsible for Zionists’ weaponization of antisemitism.
Zionism and Israel cannot be treated as a synonym for Jews and Judaism.
Israel is merely a modern political entity and treating this state anying other than that is a travesty and an injustice to Jews all across the world.
Listen up @LindseyGrahamSC @tedcruz
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