Lavender Berry

19 posts

Lavender Berry

Lavender Berry

@lavjerry1

Bakery

Katılım Temmuz 2020
296 Takip Edilen21 Takipçiler
Midnight Capital
Midnight Capital@Midnight_Captl·
$NVDA looking at their order book after the SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs
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Midnight Capital
Midnight Capital@Midnight_Captl·
Sadly, another terrible close for $NVDA Hopefully we can put these liquidity jitters behind us soon and get this SpaceX IPO over with Have to assume that’s what’s causing the pressure across the market
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Midnight Capital
Midnight Capital@Midnight_Captl·
$DELL up 30% now on the day I wonder whose server racks they’re selling! 🤔
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Lavender Berry
Lavender Berry@lavjerry1·
Be @Midnight_Captl > Sells Google before it spikes 25% > Buys GLW, crashes 15%, sells before it goes back up > Clowns on Micron before it spikes 40% in a week > Full ports Nvidia and down 10% 0/4 wins and tweeting all day.
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Lavender Berry
Lavender Berry@lavjerry1·
@Midnight_Captl @R_and_Invest The market's response to your joke thesis was +20%, cheers on your watered-down NVDA shares bro. Just go work for Jensen at this point.
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Research & Invest
Research & Invest@R_and_Invest·
💯 I didn’t notice when @Midnight_Captl went short $Mu or memory guys. What’s happening is your account hacked? I thought you are bullish AI compute? HBM is complicated and it’s not like $Intc $Tsm has bunch of idle capacity and manpower with actual know-how around to do this in 2026 or 2027. Infact $Tsm is right now one of the bottlenecks for compute for $Nvda to grow faster. Some of the tweets I read on Memory being replaced just seems so wrong. But I guess everyone have their own opinions. Yes -> NAND supply would come first, then in 12-18 months Dram and then eventually HBM. But by next year ~50% -66% of Dram bits on 5 yr LTA. That means GM boxed in above 60% and EPS >$60. Cash by Aug 2030 as per street $450/sh. So, you are shorting something 3x PE ex cash? Because Intel can do HBM? Does it make sense?
T Y@TY203922055166

@Midnight_Captl How? Memory manufacturers require about 3-4 years to build new plants, and are spending record capex to do so. Memory prices shot up in less than a year. It is clearly demand bidding up prices due to necessity. The manufacturers didn’t have any time to prepare for such demand.

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Midnight Capital
Midnight Capital@Midnight_Captl·
If Google releases a model that’s ~on par with GPT 5.5 this week I’m going to be insufferable about the TPU program It’s been ~7-8 months now since Gemini was *briefly* SOTA At some point we’re going to have to come to terms about what’s going on
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Lavender Berry
Lavender Berry@lavjerry1·
@Midnight_Captl What specifically about the rhetoric do you take issue with? They’re clearly disrupting nvidia
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Midnight Capital
Midnight Capital@Midnight_Captl·
@lavjerry1 Google is 8% of our portfolio. Hardly a hater. It’s the TPUs rhetoric I take issue with
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Midnight Capital
Midnight Capital@Midnight_Captl·
A simple heuristic: > Trump loves Jensen > Jensen and Trump are visiting China together > Jensen helped Trump pump Intel and look amazing > Trump loves to see the stock market go up Trump is going to allow Jensen to sell Nvidia gear into China Pretty simple.
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Midnight Capital
Midnight Capital@Midnight_Captl·
$NVDA down 4% on the news that all the hyperscalers are massively supply constrained and will all be raising CapEx “significantly” next year Lol. Never change wallstreet… never change
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Soumya
Soumya@soumyasen·
I shorted Google $GOOG today, along with a bunch of software stocks as a hedge against my long $CRWV position. I know this is very unconventional but my take is that $GOOG business models worked really well when incremental user activity came at near zero cost of compute and that is changing as it transitions to AI driven usage. The entire ad model in AI era will move from cost per click to percent share of revenue from sales/leads generated which in my opinion will be led by OpenAI. Will see how it plays out. For now, it is just a hedge against too much exposure to Beta especially when we had such a great run over the last 16 days.
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PoIiMath
PoIiMath@politicalmath·
I have a question about the Brown shooting and the inability of the police to find the suspect: When was the last time it took this long to find someone who shot 11 people in a public space?
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✧
@cessonmute·
i used to think that holding your tongue was a sign of maturity, but i realized that a true sign of growth and maturity is being able to vocalize your feelings in an appropriate manner even if you are angry. holding your tongue just fosters unexpressed feelings that lead to
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Demis Hassabis
Demis Hassabis@demishassabis·
something brewing...
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Satya Nadella
Satya Nadella@satyanadella·
I’ve been thinking a lot about what the net benefit of the AI platform wave is. The real question is how to empower every company out there to get more out of this platform shift and build their own AI native capabilities and enterprise value (vs inadvertently just transfer their unique value to the tech sector!!). Bill famously said a platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it exceeds the value of the company that creates it. That’s the essence of the positive-sum future. Even in our somewhat zero-sum mindset industry, we can create partnerships that create value for all parties involved. Our partnership with OpenAI is a great example. Our investment helped them scale; their research accelerated our own innovation. That’s what healthy platforms and partners do—they catalyze and compound progress. There’s no better proof than what we announced just this week. The world’s first AI superfactory was co-designed with OpenAI and informed by three generations of AI supercomputers we built for frontier model training and inference. It was also a result of working closely with Nvidia and getting better at the full stack optimization from model architecture to micro-architecture of the chip and everything between three companies! We also did the work to bring AMD into the fleet doing inference of GPT models, which enabled them to get up to speed on their own software stack for AI. And now all this infrastructure will scale to support every startup to enterprise doing their own training to inference. You can see the same dynamic in coding. Thanks to AI, the category itself has expanded and may ultimately become one of the largest software categories. I don’t ever recall any analyst ever asking me about how much revenue Visual Studio makes! But now everyone is excited about AI coding tools. This is another aspect of positive sum, when the category itself is redefined and the pie becomes 10x what it was! With GitHub Copilot we compete for our share and with GitHub and Agent HQ we also provide a platform for others. Of course, the real test of this era won’t be when another tech company breaks a valuation record. It will be when the overall economy and society themselves reach new heights. When a pharma company uses AI in silico to bring a new therapy to market in one year instead of twelve. When a manufacturer uses AI to redesign a supply chain overnight. When a teacher personalizes lessons for every student. When a farmer predicts and prevents crop failure. That’s when we’ll know the system is working. Let us move beyond zero-sum thinking and the winner-take-all hype and focus instead on building broad capabilities that harness the power of this technology to achieve local success in each firm, which then leads to broad economic growth and societal benefits. And every firm needs to make sure they have control of their own destiny and sovereignty vs just a press release with a Tech/AI company or worse leak all their value through what may seem like a partnership, except it's extractive in terms of value exchange in the long run. We know that the Internet wave had tremendous positive sum impact in the world, and yet we also had some sectors that got hollowed out like local media. This time around we have the opportunity to ensure broad diffusion of this tech with choice and control that is distributed to ensure positive sum outcomes across the board. At the end of the day, this new technological wave gives us the opportunity to dream bigger and set higher ambitions for what we can collectively achieve. Each of us will need to play our part!
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