niko.sol

A $3.3million polymarket+ what will happen next: who will take the throne of the best model on February 28, 2026?🔥 Current quotes (as of February 8): 🟩 Anthropic — 62-68% (Claude's 4.5/4.6 opus "Power") ✅ Google — 22% (Gemini 3 Pro is already in the top 1 on some benchmark, but the market is waiting for a surprise) OpenAI ~6-7%, xAI ~4-5% Why is a man so tall? → The market believes in Claude 5 (or Opus 4.6) to the end of me → While on LMSYS/Arena chatbot, the Anthropic character is in the lead in the "style control disabled" mode (without a hint from the model) → Google elephant in the code/mathematics, not blind-rating from Claude Chalais Repeat at the highest level on lmarena.ai / (Leaderboard) on February 28 at 12:00 UTC. Who are you for? Is it an anthropic dergit or will Google find it in the future? The link: polymarket.com/event/which-co…

@0xFA1TH Agree, that’s interesting

@lazyNik0_sol I wonder what else will happen before the next elections.

The political thermometer in the Middle East is off the charts again 🔥 Polymarket screams: the probability of an Israeli strike on Greater Beirut before March 31, 2026 → 39% (and this is +24% in recent days/hours!) Market: "Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?" - Yes: 39¢ ✅(was below 20-30% recently) - No: 61¢ 🔴 - Volume: hundreds of thousands of dollars already (Lebanon/Hezbollah related markets in millions) - A rise of +24% is not noise, it is a signal from smart money 👀What is happening on earth (February 2026, latest news): - Israel continues daily/almost daily strikes on Lebanon despite the November 2024 ceasefire - January 2026 — peak attacks since November: >50 raids per month (twice as many as in December), the highest level since the armistice (Norwegian Refugee Council + Alma Research) - Recent days: attacks on tunnels, Hezbollah weapons depots in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa, even Hermel (north) - IDF hits underground storage facilities → secondary explosions (weapons confirmed) - Is Hezbollah violating ceasefire? Israel responds with waves of strikes on "terrorist infrastructure" - Additional vibe: spraying of unknown chemicals over southern Lebanon (Beirut accuses of eco-crime, glyphosate/herbicide?) — the tension is growing Greater Beirut is not the south of Lebanon, it is the capital + the suburbs (Beirut Governorate + Mount Lebanon coastal/suburbs). A strike on "Greater Beirut" = escalation of the level of "entering a new round of war", not just border sweeps. The market sees that if the current pace continues + Hezbollah's provocation/response → the probability of a jump to the capital is real. Compare with other markets (all on the topic of escalation): - Will Israel strike Lebanon on [daily/weekly] — often 40-50%+ on some days - Israel strikes Iran by March 31 → ~40% - US/Israel strike Iran → above 60% by the end of the year - Hezbollah strike on Israel → also creeping up Alpha game right now: - Buy Yes at 39¢ — if the escalation continues (and the news has been adding fuel in recent days), it's easy to reach 50-60% → x1.5+ - Or the hedge: Yes Beirut + No to the broader "strike Lebanon daily" (if the strike is targeted, but in the capital — yes) - The liquidity is good, the volume is growing — enter before it's too late This is not a memcoin pump, it is a geopolitical market where the crowd + insiders often make mistakes, but now momentum is on the Yes side. Nothing ever happens? In 2026, things happen every day in the Middle East. What do you think, crypto warriors? Is 39% an underestimation or is the market already aware of what's coming? Who posted Yes/No? Share the direction (without the numbers P&L, just the side 👀) So far, everything is in memes and perps — sometimes the fattest alpha in the black swans of geopolitics. Q1 2026 is going to be hot.

The 2028 Republican Nominee on Polymarket already looks like a foregone conclusion 🔥 Trading volume — $248M+ (this is no joke, one of the fattest political markets ever) Current quotes (as of February 5, 2026): 🔴 J.D. Vance — 49% (Yes 49¢ / No 51¢) Trump's green vice president is now almost 50/50. After the inauguration of 2025, it immediately became a favorite, and the market is only strengthening it. VP → POTUS pipeline works like clockwork. 🟢 Marco Rubio — 12% (Yes 12¢ / No 88¢) The US Secretary of State is loyal to Trump, but so far he is 4 times behind. Some are whispering about a "Rubio/Vance ticket" or even Rubio as a backup plan if something goes wrong with Vance. But so far it looks like a longshot. The others: - Donald Trump — ~5% (Trump 2028 comeback? the market almost doesn't believe it, but the money is still dripping) - Ron DeSantis — ~3% (Florida man is already exhausted) - MTG, Vivek, Nikki Haley and others — at 1% or less, purely meme rates The chart for recent months is a pure upward trend for Vance: it has been steadily growing since Trump's inauguration, with almost no drawdowns. The daily volume is $3–5M, the liquidity is huge. Why is Vance so dominant? - Direct succession: Trump 2.0 → Vance 2028 looks logical for the MAGA base - Young (42), charismatic for Zoomers/MAGA, book + senator's experience + VP - There are no serious competitors on the right (DeSantis merged, Haley went into the shadows) - The market believes that Trump will not run for a third term (although constitutionally he can, but 95% No) Compare with the overall Presidential Winner of 2028: Vance is there ~25-26%, Newsom ~20%, Rubio ~8%. That is, if the Republicans win in 2028 (and the chances are now ~45-50%), Vance is almost an automaton. The Alpha game: - Buy Yes on Vance at 49¢ — if it reaches 60-70% by mid-2027, you can easily x1.5-2 - Buy No on Rubio at 88¢ — if it continues to fall to 8-10%, easy 10-15% profit - Or hedji: Yes Vance + No Trump (Trump is already at the bottom) This is not 2024, where everything was chaos. Here the market sees a clear trajectory: Trump era → Vance era. What do you think, brothers? Vance lock for 2028 or Rubio/someone else will shoot unexpectedly? Who has already entered this market? Share positions (without P&L, just the direction 😏) So far, everyone is farming memcoin points — sometimes the fattest alphas in politics. Q1–Q2 2026 promises to be wild.

@Valera51063845 It can be interesting

@lazyNik0_sol Only backpack from this list

Q1 is scheduled to be active by TGE The quarter will be interesting. What projects are there hopes for? 😏

@xmayeth I want to start copytrading too, but that’s very dangerous after polycule hack

Copytrading Smart Wallets Made Him $69,736 in a Single Month Recently I met a guy on Discord who’s printing money on Prediction Markets too. What surprised me is that he doesn’t trade by himself. He started copytrading smart wallets in January and already made $75,609 from just 67 predictions. His biggest trade so far: > "Will Tim Walz drop out by January 6?" +$4,800 (+2400%) Finding wallets to track was always hard for me, but he shared a few simple rules: > search fresh non-public wallets > avoid bot wallets (hard to catch all the trades) > focus on high winrate wallets > political markets is what prints money consistently I’ve already added his and some other wallets to track in my favorite tool: thetradefox.com/?ref=COPYTRADE Now you know that passive income with Polymarket is real.

@Valera51063845 I think that it’s a bot, because trades are simple and strategy is similar everywhere

$0.03 —> $6,278.71 on one Trade 20,648,331.58% pure profit I found a wild Polymarket trader again. He looks weird, but his results are crazy. influenz.eth predicts on everything: politics, economy, world events. He is almost always right. The big claim: he made around $470k profit(!!!) in just one month from a small start like $200!. Polymarket lets anyone trade predictions — you only need to know how to do it well. Right now: - Total predictions: 30,228 - Current open positions value: about $94k - Biggest single win so far: $28.4k - He made most of those 30k+ predictions in one month! Definitely someone worth watching if you're into prediction markets. Wallet: polymarket.com/profile/0xe8dd… Have ever seen such numbers ? I haven’t 🫣

@capy_onchain @variational_io wtf, Extended is lower than variational? That’s crazy

Open interest on @variational_io just dropped hard. OI is down ~50% vs last week. Lower OI = less competition for points. I’m not claiming to be a genius, but if points are distributed based on behavior, those who stay consistent now should see much higher point efficiency this week. This is usually the phase where most people slow down. Historically, that’s when points get cheaper. Access: omni.variational.io Code: OMNICAPY (15% points boost + Bronze tier) Worth paying attention.

Thailand is on the verge of a political earthquake! See what's happening on Polymarket right now (trading volume is already > $4.8 million in the main market alone): Thailand Legislative Election Winner — snap election on February 8, 2026: 🔵 People's Party (PPLE) — **67%** probability of becoming the winning party (the largest faction) Bhumjaithai Party (BJT, the party of the current PM Anutin) — **33%** 🟡 Pheu Thai (PT, old Shinwatra machine) — only **1.9%** 😱 🟠 Democrats ( DP) — **<1%** ( actually disappeared from the radar) The graph is a pure thriller: Since the end of December, PPLE has been steadily growing from ~60% → falling → tearing up again, in recent days there has been a vertical rise. BJT, on the contrary, is a stable drain from a peak of under 50% to 33%. Pheu Thai just lies at the bottom. What is happening in reality? - On December 12, 2025, the parliament was dissolved after another political crisis (Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed for ethics violations). - The People's Party is essentially the heir to the banned Move Forward Party, a progressive, youth, reformist force. Gen Z has very strong support in cities as well. Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader, is currently leading the polls as the preferred prime minister (~35%). - Bhumjaithai is more conservative, regional, strongly tied to the province and coalition games. - Pheu Thai, which recently ruled, is now in a deep crisis and, judging by the market, is flying to third or fourth place. Additional markets confirm the picture: - PPLE will almost certainly get the most seats (88%+ on "win most seats") - Expectations for the number of PPLE mandates: peak at 135-149 (26%), but 20% put it at 180+ (very ambitious for a 500-seat parliament) - 2nd place — almost certainly BJT (62-64%) - 3rd — Pheu Thai (88-92%) The market is screaming: the old elite and the Shinwatra dynasty are losing their grip, and the young reformers are rushing to power. But in Thailand, we know that even if the PPLE wins the majority of seats, the senate + army + monarchy + coalition dances can turn everything around again (as was the case with Move Forward in 2023-2024). There are only a few days left before the elections. This will be one of the most dramatic moments of Thai politics in the last 10 years. What do you think — will the progressives finally break through to real power, or will the Senate say no again? Are you betting on Polymarket? Who is your favorite? 🔥 #Thailand #ThailandElection2026 #Polymarket #ThaiPolitics

@therealyou66 Me too

@lazyNik0_sol hoping for some zk rollups to pop off

@xmayeth I think that it doesn’t work that easy bro😭

@capy_onchain @variational_io Why are extended and pacifica so low? Extended should be in 1 tier I think

My current tier list of perp DEXs with real upside. These are the 6 perps I’m actively focusing on right now. Not because they’re “early hype”, but because the risk/reward still makes sense even if you’re starting from zero. 1. @variational_io Behavior-based points, not raw volume. 0% maker / 0% taker. Points are pricing ~$30–40 OTC. Low OI, long holds and consistency matter more than size. Access: omni.variational.io Code: OMNICAPY (15% points boost + Bronze tier) 2. @hyenatrade Perp layer built on Hyperliquid by the Ethena team. Recently cut fees to 0.017% maker / 0.05% taker. Lets you farm multiple ecosystems at once (HyENA, Ethena, HL S3, TradeXYZ, Based, Unit). Access: app.hyena.trade/ref/CAPY 3. @etherealdex Invite-only and still underfarmed. 0% maker / 0.03% taker. Low competition = cheap points (~$0.01–0.015 OTC). One of the easiest setups for delta-neutral farming. Access: app.ethereal.trade/?ref=UM68P2M9J… 4. @extendedapp Built by ex-Revolut engineers. Real $1B+ daily volume, no fake zero-fee wash games. Tokenized vaults, strong infra, clear business model. ~1 point per ~$5k volume with extra weight for holding + PnL. Access: app.extended.exchange/join/CAPY 5. @pacifica_fi Tier-1 Solana perp. ~$1B daily volume + fixed 10M points distributed weekly. Points trade OTC around ~$0.4–0.5. Works very well in delta-neutral setups. Access: app.pacifica.fi/?referral=Capy 6. @hibachi_xyz Super early and still thin. Built by the Hashflow team. Fast execution, clean API, low competition. Point ratio is one of the best in the market if you know what you’re doing. Access: hibachi.xyz/r/capy Which one are you actually grinding right now? Curious where people are putting real volume.

Getting money from Bingx💰 Bing has launched 2 gold-related traffic jams. In this post, I'll take each one apart and give you a takeaway guide.👀 ❇️1 promotion: a promo in which the task is to guess where the gold will go. If we guess correctly, we get a portion of the pool of $20,000. But the peculiarity is that in this guessing game you can play only 2 times: 1 time — for the first deal in copy trading, 2 times — for $ 100 volume in copy trading. At the same time, in order to qualify for the award, you need to have more than $5,000 volume in your trading account during the promotion. There are still 2 days left, so it's easy to make it. ❇️2nd promotion: this is a HODL in an XAUTH/USDT pair. That is, we steak USDT, get points, and then exchange them in a 1,000-to-1 ratio (1,000 points is 1 ounce of gold). To participate, go to the page, go through KYC, deposit USDT and farm points. The end of the pharma is 05:00 on 02/06/2026, so we're speeding up. Will you participate?

@0xFA1TH @PolymarketTrade Have you seen that FBI tried to hide them and people saw that?

Epstein is alive ? Over 3 million pages were published - and there are only 10 markets on Polymarket directly related to Epstein. Among them, I noticed one market related to confirming that Epstein is alive and built a logical chain around it. Based on 3 photos, one could argue that he staged his death, most likely by paying the right people. You could be 90% confident that he’s alive. The market assigns only a 6% chance that this information becomes public - but do you really think that out of 3 million pages there won’t be even a single clue suggesting he’s alive?

@SolSt1ne Bots are really interesting now on Polymarket, it’s easy to code and earn on it, but I’ve seen that clowdbot wasted someone’s money like a few days ago😂

Bots didn’t “come for” Polymarket. They already won. Last few days: > Moltbot (clawdbot)→ +$75k > Quiet ones (zero flexing) → steady 3-7k/week What every top performer has in common right now: > 1. Farming spreads on 15 min crypto markets (BTC, ETH, SOL) > 2. Running 24/7 with zero emotion > 3. Buying every gap >0.3-0.5% and dumping the second it closes The funny part? You can literally launch almost the same thing today in under 7 minutes: > 1. Ask ChatGPT: “Write the ultimate ClawdBot prompt to arbitrage spreads across every crypto market on Polymarket” > 2. Copy-paste into ClawdBot > 3. Hit launch + fund the wallet with some gas That’s it. The bot then lives its own life and prints. It’s February 2026 and most people are still manually clicking, crying that “the edge is gone”. The edge didn’t go anywhere. It just belongs to bots now. Whoever launches today will most likely catch the fattest spreads of the next 2-4 weeks. After that either the markets get fixed or competition eats the margin. Move fast.

@Valera51063845 He has interesting trades, obviously not a Indian farmer, bot or AI

$248 → $110,000 in a little over two months Feels almost too good to be true, doesn’t it? Yet every single one of his “calls” comes from a carefully built strategy, not random guesses. What ties all these situations together is one key thing: They force us to shift from pure predictions → probability thinking. So instead of trying to guess exactly what will happen next, the smarter move is to consistently choose the path that has the highest long-term probability of paying off. Noticing more and more of these “genius trader” stories popping up lately? Want me to put together more compilations like this one? @flow-trader-at-optiver?via=valera-666" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/ru/@flow-trade…

EASY WAY TO EARN 10-20% 🔥 A few days ago I’ve lost some money on Polymarket and I thought that it’s hard to earn money, but the thing that I’ve found one very interesting deal for you 👀 Arsenal is very powerful now, and it has more wins than Man City, not very good times in City rn😬 Premier League Winner – Polymarket Arsenal: 81% ✅ Man City: 15% 🔴 Volume: $211M The crowd has voted. Title incoming. 🔴⚪ polymarket.com/event/english-…

What's on the market!? Gold and silver lost $10 trillion in capitalization in 3 days. In the morning, everything was falling: oil, raw materials, index futures and BTC for the company dropped below $75k at night. The cue ball has bounced a bit now. I won't get tired of repeating, don't JUST deal with the crypt, find something else for yourself and you will be happy)

@Valera51063845 Why are ICE so naughty now? They are trying to make civil war?

ICE The key problem with ICE is that it has good intentions but shitty methods. Right now, they're recruiting any old redneck without any strict selection process. Their training is poor and rushed, and unlike other law enforcement agencies, they have little experience. Furthermore, ICE operates like a garbage collector: there is a detention plan and KPIs. Donnie has to report to his crooked rednecks how many Latinos he has deported. They give him a “plan” and he has to catch people, and it doesn't matter who, as long as he gives Donnie BIG, BEAUTIFUL numbers! And they go to ICE for the money. When you sign the contract, you immediately get up to $50,000 + a salary of $70,000–120,000 per year — that's very good money for government employees. Trump allocated tens of billions to this agency under the “Big Beautiful” law. What's more, you're also a “patriot saving the United States” — a case where people are motivated by the idea, not just the money. If anything, I am completely in favor of deporting illegal immigrants, but the way this is being implemented greatly discredits the government and infringes on the constitutional rights of citizens. Many citizens with passports live in fear, and in some states there is a feeling of martial law. And just for the record, I don’t trade any markets related to ICE !!!