
Len
2.2K posts









As usual - such a clarifying, detailed analysis by the brilliant @shanaka86 - Read him every day if you want to be properly informed

BREAKING. The President of the United States just told the world he does not need the Strait of Hormuz and the countries that do will have to start protecting it themselves. He said this while sending 5,000 Marines toward the Persian Gulf. He said this while his defense secretary announced strikes will increase significantly. He said this while bunker-busters hit Natanz for the fifth time in 16 years. The message is not contradictory. It is leverage. America is fighting the war. America is also handing you the bill. The exact words: “We don’t use the Strait of Hormuz. We don’t need it. Europe, Korea, Japan and China need it. They will have to get involved a little bit.” He posted on Truth Social that the strait will have to be guarded and policed by other nations who use it, adding that the United States does not. He said this from a position of energy independence that no previous wartime president has possessed. America is a net energy exporter. The war it is fighting is destroying a chokepoint it does not depend on. Every barrel that cannot transit Hormuz raises the price of oil that American producers sell to the countries Trump just told to get involved. The numbers behind the quote are devastating for the countries named. Europe receives approximately 20 percent of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan imports roughly 90 percent of its crude from the Middle East, most of it transiting the strait. South Korea is similarly dependent. China imports more than 70 percent of its crude from the Middle East and Africa, with Hormuz handling the largest share. These are not marginal dependencies. They are existential. Trump named four. He could have named forty. India imports 40 percent of its crude through Hormuz. Seventy percent of American generic prescriptions come from Indian manufacturers who depend on that crude to power their factories. The pharmaceutical supply chain that fills medicine cabinets in Ohio runs through a 21-mile strait that the American president just said is not America’s problem. Except it is. The interdependence that Trump’s rhetoric denies is the interdependence that his own citizens experience every time they pick up a prescription. The strategic calculation is precise. Two carrier strike groups are in theatre. Two amphibious ready groups carrying 5,000 Marines are en route. France has deployed the Charles de Gaulle with escort vessels. No other nation has committed major surface combatants. Trump is simultaneously prosecuting the most intensive American naval deployment since Iraq 2003 and publicly telling the beneficiaries of that deployment to contribute or accept the consequences. The leverage works because the deployment exists. If America were not there, the demand would be hollow. Because America is there and fighting, the demand carries the implicit threat that America could stop. Japan’s constitutional constraints limit collective military action. South Korea’s domestic politics make Gulf deployments toxic. Europe’s navies are configured for the Baltic and Mediterranean, not sustained Gulf escort operations. China will not send warships alongside the fleet bombing its partner Iran. Every country Trump named faces a structural barrier to doing what he asked. He knows this. The demand is designed to produce not allied navies but allied funding, diplomatic concessions, and trade leverage extracted from countries that cannot say no because their economies are bleeding $166 crude while America sells its own at a premium. This is not burden-sharing. It is burden-pricing. The strait is the product. The war is the sales pitch. And the customers just learned they have no alternative supplier. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…



On BBC Question Time, @Helen_Whately just said ‘we can’t afford Net Zero’ . She is a human health hazard and grossly misinformed or lying . Time to call out the lunatics leading us to hell . No facts , no truth , no integrity - no hope.

This is Jess Phillips laughing at something on her phone whilst Yvette Cooper is talking about the Rape Gang inquiry She needs to be sacked immediately Agree?



'We finally have a prime minister who looks like a world leader again.' James O’Brien thinks Keir Starmer’s recent handling of Trump and the Iran war has 'given him a status of statesmanship’ he lacked before.






