Leni

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Leni

Leni

@lenion

Ex. barber. Now a full-time trader. Turning knowledge into wealth. Discipline is key. NFA

lock in Katılım Ağustos 2024
1.9K Takip Edilen32.6K Takipçiler
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH S&P 500 Read the post carefully before buying stocks 3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion: 1. The biggest IPO wave in decades - SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion( $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12) - OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion - Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion 2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200+ billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components 3. History shows a concerning pattern At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies: - The Roaring Twenties - The Nifty Fifty era - Japan's 1980s asset bubble - The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000 Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes 4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns: - Amazon: -95% - Microsoft: -65% - Intel: -80% - Oracle: -80% - Yahoo: -97% A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation IPOs at these kinds of valuations, while many AI companies are still deeply unprofitable, are often a sign of market euphoria I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important
Leni@lenion

🚨 S&P 500 MORE DANGEROUS RIGHT NOW THAN IT LOOKS The illusion of safety is what can make you poor I keep seeing people say, "It probably won't crash, it always goes up" That's exactly what concerns me When you buy an individual stock, you got that you can lose money But with the S&P 500, it's different, most people don't even consider the possibility of a crash anymore Just look at the dot-com bubble - back then, everyone thought everything was fine and the index would keep climbing for years But the final stage of every bubble begins when prices become absurd and fear disappears And prices right now really are getting absurd. The index is printing new highs almost every day with barely any meaningful pullbacks I'm not saying a crash is coming Monday, for example, but I am warning you that markets become the most vulnerable when the majority stops seeing any risk Right now I'm watching investor confidence closely, and the level of euphoria is extreme. That's usually the final stage Are you ready for what could happen next? Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important

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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@MamdouhRayes In my opinion, the target hasn't been fully reached yet, but I'm fine with some price deviation At the end of the day, none of us knows the exact price where the market will reverse
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斎藤 優斗
斎藤 優斗@MamdouhRayes·
@lenion So you think the $65k target has basically been hit, give or take, and the chart goes lower from here?
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@MausiLenk It's all good if it was part of your strategy That's just part of trading
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加藤 あおい
加藤 あおい@MausiLenk·
@lenion They probably had tight stop losses, which is why there were so many liquidations I got stopped out on my short too
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@MausiLenk Overall, considering the recent news, this pump and the short squeeze aren't surprising But looking at the chart, I don't get why people were shorting right here in the first place
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加藤 あおい
加藤 あおい@MausiLenk·
@lenion Feels like after a pump this strong, $57k could get hit pretty fast
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
SOL IS COOKING SOMETHING 60 → 85 → 57 (next) → 72 → 51 Nobody is ready for this, but someone is quietly accumulating Every July during the bear market has come with a rally But that's about to end It'll be time for the cycle bottom to form Don't try to catch the bottom in Solana or Bitcoin Set your DCA buy targets and be smarter than the crowd I told you about this before
Leni@lenion

🚨 This scenario has repeated itself for 3 cycles in a row It shows up BEFORE EVERY major manipulation That's why I'm still bearish on Bitcoin You need to remember that there are 3 phases: - Distribution - Manipulation - Accumulation Right now we're in the MANIPULATION phase Distribution is already over But accumulation hasn't even started yet And I don't understand why most people don't see it - it's the same thing every cycle, just look at the chart, study Wyckoff, and it'll all make sense 2018 → 2022 → 2026 I also don't get the people waiting for $30k, think about it yourself - is it possible? Absolutely But what are the chances it actually happens? Pretty low This is exactly how smart money shakes out the last weak hands and turns you into exit liquidity So sure, you can buy here, but only through DCA, don't assume the bottom is in, you should have buy targets set for every major dip I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan In 2-3 weeks we'll see who's actually right Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important

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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@MausiLenk Market sentiment isn't where it needs to be We're in the final phase of the bear market, along with a few other reasons
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加藤 あおい@MausiLenk·
@lenion But why do you think it'll play out like that instead of moving higher from here?
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@MausiLenk Like always, this is just my opinion, and I'm simply sharing it every day I follow the trend, watch liquidity, and trade accordingly
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@Bumer44 That's Ansem's opinion This is mine: I don't think we've hit the bottom yet Of course I could be wrong but Ansem could be wrong too
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Ironshadowz
Ironshadowz@Bumer44·
@lenion There's a chance Solana already bottomed I saw Ansem talking about it
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@MedusaOnchain At least I'm sharing my opinion, and of course I could be wrong Anyone can be wrong, we'll see
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Medusa
Medusa@MedusaOnchain·
@lenion leni is my new quant :D jokes aside, i'm kinda following your TAs
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
ETHEREUM IS FORMING A BULL TRAP 2,450 → 1,500 → 1,900 (next) → 1,500 → 1,300 Bottoms don't form that fast, but they're trying to make you believe they do The trend is clearly bearish, and to break it ETH has to reclaim and hold above 2450 That's not gonna happen in the current market conditions Ethereum can't bottom before Bitcoin does I told you about this before
Leni@lenion

BITCOIN IS COOKING SOMETHING 67K → 58K → 65K(next) → 57K The last 3 months of the bear market I told you about this before

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särrçs
särrçs@Timotheishere·
@lenion it can work well for your research and trading
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@Timotheishere That's true, but we're seeing short-term accumulation that could lead to a breakout above this resistance, with 1900 as the next targe
Leni tweet media
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särrçs
särrçs@Timotheishere·
@lenion if you check the daily timeframe, you'd see a resistance zone that proce is already reacting off of
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@Mswilliamjoyce Overall yeah Anyway, the bear market should be over soon, we'll see
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中村 大和
中村 大和@Mswilliamjoyce·
@lenion I think it depends more on market sentiment than anything else
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@Mswilliamjoyce That's definitely possible given the current market conditions, but like always, it'll depend on the news
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中村 大和
中村 大和@Mswilliamjoyce·
@lenion For some reason, I think the bottom will be somewhere around 1500, maybe 1450 to grab liquidity
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@MamdouhRayes Look at the historical charts and see for yourself July rally I trade with the trend
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Leni
Leni@lenion·
@MamdouhRayes I'd say you're right for now, but that's just a short-term situation ETH has a lot of strong bulls right now, but they can flip bearish just as fast
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斎藤 優斗
斎藤 優斗@MamdouhRayes·
@lenion The only issue is that ETH looks stronger than Bitcoin right now - what's your take on that?
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Leni retweetledi
Leni
Leni@lenion·
GOLD WILL BREAK 4,000 SUPPORT 4,800 → 3,940 → 4,200 → 3,850 (next) → 4,000 This is a liquidity grab in a downtrend Nobody wants to believe it But that's how the market works and the bull rally is over This could continue all the way down to 3,450 I told you about this before
Leni@lenion

🚨 GOLD IS NOT DONE FALLING Nobody wants to hear this, but read this first Right now, several factors are putting pressure on gold at the same time: → High Fed interest rates. As long as the market isn't expecting rate cuts and bond yields stay elevated, gold becomes less attractive → Easing geopolitical tensions are reducing demand for safe-haven assets → After a strong rally, many investors are taking profits, adding more selling pressure → Central banks have been one of the biggest buyers of gold. If that demand starts to slow down, the market loses a major source of support (Turkey is already selling gold) → A strong U.S. economy and a stronger dollar are pushing capital back into stocks and other risk assets → Historically, after major rallies, gold often corrects by 20-40%, and late summer into early fall has usually been a weak seasonal period Do you realize what this means? One catalyst alone wouldn't worry me But when all of them start aligning at the same time, I pay attention That's exactly what's happening now I've said this before, and everything's still going according to my plan The next phase is gonna be very important Turn on notifications. If you're not following yet, you'll probably find this account after the move, not before it

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