letical

@DsrPrivate I'm a bit confused. In the last 10 minutes, there was an extremely high volume buy. I thought it was supposed to sell? I guess someone who knows about the ETF was just waiting to buy the whole day?

@DsrPrivate What is the 0dte situation right now? Is it finally nearing a place to press shorts?

@FishtownCap @shortbus_ace Agreed. I just wish I could short $IWM instead, but it risks not being as correlated to a consumer pullback thesis as $IWM is too small. Shorting big tech requires hedging general improvements in AI, which is doable but requires much closer monitoring of the technology.

@leticale @shortbus_ace We're at 2 sigma's in almost every valuation metric. A generally consumer pullback will hit big tech too.

Thoughts going into next week (would love feedback.) Full disclosure, degrossed/hedged 75% of my account Friday, leaving mostly energy and defensives, plus some longer term/low basis positions. $SPY at 6750. We went under 5000 last April on something far less serious IMO. Not just Iran but weak jobs report with negative revisions. Adding an moderate energy shock against this backdrop isn't good. We also see some selling as people pay taxes this time of year. I agree with @EnergyCynic that $70 WTI is the new $55. I think pipelines will be winners here between their defensive nature and increased drilling. I'm actively looking for shorts to hedge further. I think $WMT and $COST are juicy up here. Would love ideas on others. I think any shock that leads to a pullback/pause on the AI/Datacenter investments has broader implications for the market. I think could be 2022 all over again. Not trying to add to the fear, but I think this is a time to be defensive.

@FishtownCap @shortbus_ace The only names in the top 15 in $QQQ by weight that I would short independently is $WMT $COST. If you hold everything in the top 15 flat besides $WMT $COST, then everything else needs to drop by 10.53% to get the index down 5%.

@FishtownCap @shortbus_ace Have you done a drawdown decomposition for $QQQ? Specifically, let's assume $QQQ goes down by 5% to $570. How will that happen? One easy way is AI demand tapers. However, if that doesn't happen, I'm having trouble seeing what could drag $QQQ down.

@DsrPrivate Why is this so shocking? I thought he has been saying this for months? Is it the recognition that he can't end the war quickly and it will be necessary to fight unemployment?

@DsrPrivate Is the 0dte no loss streak still ongoing? I know we've had a number of down days but does one good day reset the pain?

@DsrPrivate He does write stuff like "I’ve asked AI questions before and gotten answers back, but I’ve never received a personalized explanation like I did in this case." but I see your point. Thanks for clarifying and agreed that there are so many futures to consider.

@DsrPrivate as I would know that the market or at least the best investors have thought through this in detail and already priced this in. I think the extent to which tiny changes in user behavior change the macro landscape is not fully grasped.

@DsrPrivate In short, I don't think we had a shared vision of what will happen in 6 years. To put it differently, if the response was "here's the sci-fi scenario you're thinking of and here is why I think it will happen in 30 years not 6 years", then I would sell my AI stocks immediately

@FishtownCap I agree that no one is going to buy an future version of Alexa to help them read. My guess is we probably just disagree about the state of how pervasive voice based assistants will be in 6 years and how trusted they will be. Appreciate the discussion!

@leticale Ok. I'm not going to debate this point by point. I disagree that anyone needs or wants a voice assistant because they can't read what's on the screen.

$HRB H&R Block. Short call, no change in strategy, reiterate guide for FY26. Revenue decent growth YoY for the "off" quarters. Regarding the AI "threat". They mentioned that a large percentage of time spent in tax prep is Data Entry. How does AI ever "solve" this? Tax software is already prompt-based, and HRB already incorporating AI to "double check" things. We're worried about the customer who is going to 1. Gather all of their sensitive documentation on their computer. 2. Upload all their docs containing their SSN and financial info into an LLM. 3. Hope the LLM asks all the right questions that they didn't miss anything. To maybe save $50 on tax software once a year? Anyone that can do this is an elite DIY customer, which isn't who HRB really caters to, and not where they make their money.

@FishtownCap It is all about confidence and trust. "Will I be able to navigate this process end to end on my own?" If there is any doubt about this, Turbotax will lose. A trusted general voice assistant will change this balance.

@FishtownCap When he moved states a few years ago, the first thing he asked me was "do you know if Turbotax can handle multiple states?" If my answer was "I have no idea", I'm guessing he probably would have just went to H&R Block instead of taking the 5 seconds to Google that answer.