Jawad

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Jawad

Jawad

@levantupdates

Updates and analysis on the Levant and Geopolitics as a whole. All opinions are my own, RT and Quote Tweets do not mean endorsement

Bint Jbeil, Lebanon Katılım Mart 2024
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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
My geopolitical predictions and analysis for 2026: 1. 110 years after Sykes-Picot we are facing a new project called the United Abrahamic States with its goal of partitioning existing countries based on sectarian and ethnic lines. The project is based on Israeli hegemony through occupation of land and natural resources. 2. Uprisings in Syria that will do more then spark annexation talks, a alawite state on the coast a durzi state in the south and a Kurdish state in the north. The momentum of annexation will spread to other countries forcing unusual alliances to form. 3. A youth movement in the Middle East. Leadership changes in Bahrain and Jordan. Hussein ibn Abdullah will be crowned king. Turkey will have a new president. 4. The rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia will reach Saudi Arabia, MBS will face his biggest challenges internally after the death of Salman, and we may see a Ritz Carlton 2.0 5. 3 governments in Yemen 6. Attempts at destabilizing the regime in Egypt with fingers pointed towards the Muslim brotherhood. Protests and chants form but in my opinion won’t succeed. The deployment of the Egyptian military and its navy across Africa. 7. Nuclear and Intercontinental Iran. 8. New governments in Lebanon and Palestine pave the way for reform. 9. Without stating the obvious there is no such thing as a ceasefire. 10. Geological and financial crisis worldwide.
Jawad@levantupdates

Leaving this post here to revisit throughout the year. These are just predictions of the Middle East based on analysis. 1) We will use the word “replaced” more than word “elected” when it comes to leadership across the middle east. We will find it hard to distinguish between revolutions and coups. Families that were in power before will resurface in the news in countries such as Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Palestine and yes even Syria. 2) The hysteria that the Muslim world used in regard to Wilayat Al Fakih will now shift to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood especially in Egypt and Jordan. 3) Unfortunately the same images that we saw in Beirut and the Dahya we could see in Sanaa Yemen. 4) The existential threat that the factions in Gaza used to launch October 7th will be used to launch a similar operation in the West Bank. 5) Iran will face its biggest test internally and will lead to it exerting its force externally. 6) Repeat of True Promise but this time in Lebanon. 7) After a brief scare of civil war adversaries in Lebanon and Palestine will put differences aside and rule together. 8) The prisoners that were promised to be released from Palestine will be released including Al Bargouthi. 9) Fist fights turn into hand shakes between Iran and the gulf countries. 10) The war in Lebanon in certain areas isn’t over.

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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
When the first thing I read in the morning is “according to axios”
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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
Violent clashes have erupted between resistance fighters and Israeli enemy forces in the vicinity of the Wadi Raj area (Deir Syriane - Zuatar) in southern Lebanon. The confrontations took place using machine guns and direct shells, and according to initial reports, the resistance managed to inflict confirmed casualties among the enemy soldiers, including one killed and one wounded, and the clashes are still ongoing up to this moment .. while confirmations also indicate that the resistance directly targeted a unit from the Golani Brigade.
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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
○Summary of Israeli attacks on Lebanese territory on 3/5/2026: Bulldozing activities have reduced due to the FPV attacks, as have the airstrikes although the artillery strikes have increased. ○Raids carried out by enemy warplanes: Al-Sarirah Jarjous Zouq Al-Sharqiya Srifa Al-Shahabiyah Al-Qasibah Kafr Dounin Birek Yahmur Al-Shaqif Al-Dawir Al-Numairiyah Jabsheet Arabsalim Froun Hariz Yatar Kafra Burj Qalawiya Between Bar'ashit and Kounine Qalawiya ○Raids carried out by enemy drones: Jouya Saddekin Safed Al-Batikh ○Enemy artillery bombardments: Wadi Shabaa Al-Ghanduriyah Burj Qalawiya Al-Haniyah Al-Mansouriyah Bayt Yahun Kounine Wadi Al-Salouqi Qaqiye Al-Jisr Wadi Al-Hajir Hariz Froun Al-Khiam Yatar Srifa Shaqra Bar'ashit Zouq Al-Sharqiya Zouq Al-Gharbiyya ○Explosions carried out by the enemy in southern towns: Sham'a Al-Qantara
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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
This time the targets won’t be limited to the bases in the U.A.E and regionally this has been given a green light.
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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
So 😂 the plan is that It’ll tell US-flagged ships and others the safe lanes to navigate the Strait of Hormuz (aka no mines, etc.) without a naval escort, essentially telling ships where any naval blind spots are and what passages are free of mines. This is either coordinated or has got to be the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Trump is playing minesweeper with thousands of lives at sea.
Jawad tweet media
Jawad@levantupdates

The Wall Street Journal, citing an official: Trump's initiative does not currently include having American warships escort ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Are they passing through with the power of prayer then? I don’t get it

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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
The Wall Street Journal, citing an official: Trump's initiative does not currently include having American warships escort ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Are they passing through with the power of prayer then? I don’t get it
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Jawad retweetledi
ابراهیم عزیزی
ابراهیم عزیزی@Ebrahimazizi33·
⚠ WARNING Any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump's delusional posts! No one would believe Blame Game scenarios!
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Marwa Osman || مروة عثمان
Israel Hayom reports: "The Israeli army has decided to withdraw the bulldozers that had been demolishing homes in southern Lebanon after they became targets for Hezbollah's aerial units." Diplo-wot-now you little muskateer of a PM? Diplomacy you say? You better fold that diplomacy 4 times and tuck it under your pillow.
Leb Now@leb_now

⭕ صحيفة "إسرائيل اليوم": الجيش الإسرائيلي قرر سحب الجرافات التي كانت تعمل على تدمير المنازل في جنوب لبنان بعد ان اصبحت اهدافا لمحلقات حزب الله

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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
"Israel Hayom" Newspaper: The Israeli army decided to withdraw the bulldozers that were operating to demolish homes in southern Lebanon after they became targets for Hezbollah drones.
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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
@ZeitandZaatar This actually isn’t bad, it’s a full dollar less
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Zeit&Zaatar
Zeit&Zaatar@ZeitandZaatar·
@levantupdates South Carolina today, and gas prices are still, by far, the least upsetting part of all of this.
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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
The Iranian proposal includes: guarantees against future military aggression, withdrawal of US forces from areas surrounding Iran, lifting the maritime blockade, release of frozen assets, compensation, sanctions relief, and ending the war across all fronts- including Lebanon-as well as a new framework for the Strait of Hormuz.
Middle East Observer@ME_Observer_

⚡️ Tasnim Agency via sources: Iran, through mediator Pakistan, submitted a response to the 9-point American proposal focusing on the issue of "ending the war." America requested a two-month ceasefire in its proposal, but Iran stressed the necessity of resolving issues within 30 days.

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Jawad
Jawad@levantupdates·
Enemy aircraft in south Lebanon flare dumping after it was targeted by a surface to air missile.
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