三盎司废柴
130 posts
Manus事件真正让人不寒而栗的，不只是交易被撤销。而是它事实上否定了过去十多年中国科技创业默认的一整套退出逻辑。
过去大家默认的规则是：
中国做研发，
中国搭团队，
中国验证市场，
然后通过离岸架构、全球融资、国际化运营，
最终走向全球资本市场或海外并购退出。
这套模式支撑了无数中国科技公司的崛起。
而现在，Manus事件传递出的新信号却是：你不能在享受中国红利之后，再自由决定未来归属。
甚至有“聪明人”出来点拨：“如果你不想成为中国技术体系的一部分，那你从第一天就应该离开。一开始就去美国/新加坡/欧洲。创业者必须想清楚自己未来属于谁。”
这话听起来很有逻辑。但细想之下，其实非常荒谬。
因为创业从来不是一条预设好的直线。
市场会变。融资环境会变。团队会变。监管会变。战略当然也会变。
Pivot（转型）本就是创业的常态，而不是例外。
如果连根据现实调整方向、重组架构、改变战略路径的基本自由都没有 - 那创业还有什么意义？
这就像谈恋爱时要求：“你第一天就必须想清楚要不要结婚，否则别谈。”
荒不荒谬？
当然 - Manus拿了地方资源，后来裁掉团队、另起炉灶，
你可以说：不厚道。不体面。甚至不道德。
但不道德，不等于违法。
难道因为前任支持过你、给过你资源、陪你成长 - 你就永远不能分手，不能开始新关系？
最可怕的不是交易黄了。而是它释放出的制度信号：你并不真正拥有你创造的东西。
你拥有的，只是“在系统允许范围内的暂时使用权”。
当你的选择不再符合更高层意志时 - 规则可以被重新解释。边界可以被重新划线。过去默认允许的路径，也可以突然被否定。
这对创业环境的伤害远超 Manus & Meta deal本身。
因为它打击的不是一家公司的退出。而是所有在中国的创业者对以下三件事的信心：产权边界是否清晰？规则是否稳定可预期？战略调整是否仍被允许？
规则越模糊，惩罚越任意，创新就越难真正繁荣。
因为创业者最怕的不是竞争。而是跑到半路，发现终点线被人改了。
Vivi@vivilinsv
The Manus situation is bigger than one deal. It signals a chilling message for founders - especially Chinese entrepreneurs (still in China): Some “wise men” commented on this deal and said “Choose your destiny on Day 1 — and never change your mind.” What they meant is - if you choose to start your company in China, then stick to it. If you’ve decided to go overseas, start a foreign company from day 1. That sounds reasonable. But it is fundamentally incompatible with how startups actually work. Startups pivot. Markets change. Regulations evolve. Founders adapt. Telling entrepreneurs they must decide at incorporation exactly where the company will end up — and then punishing them for changing strategy later — is absurd. That’s like saying: “If you date someone, you must know from Day 1 whether you’ll marry them. Otherwise don’t date at all.” Yes, Manus took local support, laid off the original team, and restarted elsewhere, people can debate whether that was ethical. But ethics and legality are not the same thing. If founders are no longer allowed to restructure, relocate, pivot, or rebuild without political consequences, then the message is clear: You don’t truly own what you build. That is bad for entrepreneurship. Bad for innovation. Bad for long-term trust in the startup ecosystem. The game has changed — and founders everywhere should pay attention.
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三盎司废柴 retweetledi
𝗗𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗱 𝗝. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝟬𝟵:𝟬𝟳 𝗣𝗠 𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝟬𝟰.𝟭𝟴.𝟮𝟲
Whether people like Israel or not, they have proven to be a GREAT Ally of the United States of America. They are Courageous, Bold, Loyal, and Smart and, unlike others that have shown their true colors in a moment of conflict and stress, Israel fights hard, and knows how to WIN! President DJT
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Escalate for de-escalation, I want to use this opportunity to get fully loaded when the 2nd leg is tested.
I think spx 6740 will be very likely to be the low, but can’t rule out the possibility of overshoot to the middle of the gap between 6620 and 6740.
If black swan happens and the gap is filled then I’ll sell everything
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRUMP: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, UNITED STATES NAVY WILL BEGIN PROCESS OF BLOCKADING ANY AND ALL SHIPS TRYING TO ENTER, OR LEAVE, STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
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@labubu_trader @tommyto31797993 @MrMicopedia I will buy if there is a sharp drop in the night session. I will only consider exiting my position if the broader market enters a negative gamma environment next week.
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@tommyto31797993 @MrMicopedia This was actually a positive negotiation to me as they both are willing to keep it going.
it’s nearly impossible to reach consensus in the first round and no one should have expected that.
As long as more ships are crossing the straits, I think the market will look it through.
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Some people’s favorite weekend Wall Street index falling sharply in response to Vance’s remarks at the press conference. 🤭
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@caijingshujuku 天涯论坛时代，09年就知道他，擅长暴论博出位。但现实生活应该过得不好。记得当年发帖，500万卖自己的知识产权。这二十年国内发展和国际应对，虽不完美，但已属超流，已经把他的脸都打烂了。
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I’m with 40% tech + 10% gold now.
Given that CL still holds $100, and SPX hasn’t reclaimed 21d EMA yet.
I’ll add 0410/0417 spy/qqq put for hedge and close $SOXL at the close.
IMO, $CL and $UB folks are the smartest people in the market, I wouldn’t trade against them.
3X Long Labubu@labubu_trader
It’ll be bullish if we can close today above SPY 650, SPX 6520, SMH 375-380, and CL dips under 100. Otherwise I’ll have to add 0410 spy put for hedge. And I think to confirm the bullish setup we’ll have to wait until the end of the next week.
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@labubu_trader If hedge with SPY puts, can you keep the hedging position under 10%?
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@labubu_trader Why not use SQQQ for hedging? Liquidity in the overnight session is much better.
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@yuyy614893671 其实也不用封锁。即使放开，战略囤油已经加速了，足够维持油价在高位震荡，vix在25以上已经18天了，超越关税战。这次川子真是捅了个马蜂窝。
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中东地区的能源分布情况，大家一看就知道胡塞武装加入伊朗要控制曼德海峡会发生什么，这会影响全球1/3的能源运输，红海的南出海口出不去，就只能通过苏伊士运河从非洲绕到印度洋马六甲到太平洋，航程多出至少6000-10000公里，时间多出2-3周……全球的供应链直接被打断
金融汪@yuyy614893671
沙特的那条管道从波斯湾到红海的陆上管道目前最大的输送能力大约是400万桶原油/天 700万桶是沙特阿美原本希望扩建的量（根本还没开始建呢） 另外，胡塞武装已经宣布要驰援伊朗，他们把曼德海峡一封锁，中东的原油只能从埃及的苏伊士运河，到直布罗陀海峡，到好望角，再通过印度洋到亚洲 航程多6000-10000公里，时间多出至少2-3周 所以，沙特这条路上石油线路只能说稍微缓解一下，不起任何决定性作用
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@labubu_trader The 55-day moving average has long served as a strong support level for MU. If it can close above the moving average and hold above 400 today, an upward wave is highly likely to follow.
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I'd treat this as the DeepSeek moment for memory names(SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron)
I checked the original paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2504.19874, it's not surprising to me that new quantization method will get better and better. And since KV Cache is the bottleneck for lots of agentic use cases(long context window), there will be more and more optimization trying to compress the size and save the memory bandwidth.
However, reduce the KV cache by 10X that doesn't mean the economic demand to HBM/DDR will shrink in the future(Jevons paradox)
I already bought the dip when $MU had the 2nd leg intraday to test the LOD but didn't break down further.
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@labubu_trader @FundaAI Waiting to see if tomorrow's night session will print this week's low, then buy storage
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Per @FundaAI : We now project MU CY2026/27 EPS of $92.2/$143.1, implying a P/E of 5.0x/3.2x, and SNDK CY2026/27 EPS of $157.6/$239.6, implying a P/E of 4.8x/3.2x.
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My current view on the U.S. stock market:
Geopolitics could get worse before it gets better—but I remain optimistic.
Why downside risk still exists:
Trump appears highly motivated to exit the war, but key uncertainties remain: the Strait is still closed, and enriched uranium destruction is unconfirmed.
That leaves room for escalation scenarios—targeting power infrastructure, boots on the ground near Kharg Island, or even use of tactical nukes (e.g. B61 to bomb the underground facility) to force negotiations. As Bessent said:
“50 days of higher prices for 50 years of no Iran nukes”
“Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate.”
Why I’m still optimistic:
First let's check how the war impacts the markets: Oil ↑ → headline PCE ↑ → core PCE ↑ → fewer cuts / potential hikes → yields ↑ → PE multiples ↓ -> stock price ↓
So the two reasons I'm thinking it's still much better than 2022:
1. Nasdaq has already consolidated ~6 months while EPS surged → forward P/E reset near last year’s “Liberation Day” levels
2. Pre-Ukraine war PCE was ~7%; today ~2.8% → far less pressure for aggressive hikes vs 2022
So even a severe scenario likely < 2022 drawdown. And my estimates of the bear cases:
Extremely bear case: QQQ ~ -10%(2022 level)
Bear case: SPX ~6150, NDX ~22200 (Feb ’25 ATH zone)
What's my strategy?
Stay 20–25% invested (no leverage no margin). Holding $TQQQ / $MU / $SNDK.
Double position at SPX 6150, and double again on either extreme downside(2022 case) or trend reversal (20EMA > 50EMA) after things settle down.
Why still prefer storage names?
Low PE multiple, trading ~5x ’26 EPS / ~3x ’27 EPS (per @FundaAI ).
3X Long Labubu@labubu_trader
DVOL 80%, spx 6500, qqq 580 First capitulation for a while since 10/10/2025 Start to buy TQQQ and MU now.
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This is a really really solid read
$CIEN $NOK $MRVL $COHR
If you are bullish optics, you must read.
It's a great deep dive into why I really like $CIEN and why I am becoming increasingly interested in $NOK
Also, there's something for you $MRVL folks in there too
Highly recommend the read
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@labubu_trader Thanks, master! If there’s panic, I hope storage stocks gap down sharply—they were way too resilient on Friday
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@lidaazhang If there is panic in Asian session on Sunday night just like the last week, then I think that’s low in ES/NQ would be the low of the week.
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NASDAQ’s forward PE is already at liberation day level. This is cheap if the macro remains at the Goldilocks scenario
However if the oil price maintains at $100+ level for another 2-3 months, the market’d fully price in stagflation which’d force a much larger multiple compression
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No immediate retaliation means they are either all dead or hidden somewhere in a radio-silent state.
Anyway, regime change is likely to happen IMO
Diyas.Σίσυφος(embracing bubble)@diyas_1989
Lol they must be all dead
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@labubu_trader The meeting minutes suggested the possibility of interest rate hikes. The U.S. Dollar Index rose, while the bond-like XLU fell. The VIX also rebounded to 18.5. Given the Iran situation, I opened a position in XLE.
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My personal thoughts :
We might see another similar move pattern on Friday. VIX dips in AM and rises in PM
Anyway if ES retests 6910-20, NQ retests 25090-25160 and can’t reclaim, then it’s still a bearish environment.
If ES breaks down 6800, I’d expect more violent downward move.
3X Long Labubu@labubu_trader
VIX is bullish reversal from 10D EMA, I added my march spy/qqq puts back again as hedge when 30 minutes pivot
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@labubu_trader Thanks. Its earnings were terrible, but it went up anyway, so I went long. But Given how the broader market looks this weekend, I'm ready to stop out next week.
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@lidaazhang x.com/labubu_trader/…
Coin tested the 10d EMA on Friday. Will stop loss if coin can break out $167.
3X Long Labubu@labubu_trader
I learned this month to use inverted scale charts to find short candidates, great tool for a perma-bull like me Examples: $IGV weekly "double bottom" $COIN daily "parabolic move with bull flag" like SNDK $PLTR daily "H&S bottom" $XLF "downward channel & 200d SMA breakout"
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My current holding in the trading accounts:
Long: XLU/XLI/XLE, CVX/XOM/RIG, CAT/DE/ADM, Gold, Semi caps, ORCL/IGV(closed igv/pltr puts when igv hit $80 last week), LLY, ULTA, EWU/EWG/EWJ/EWZ
Short: QQQ/ARKK, COIN/MSTR
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