Litquid

23 posts

Litquid

Litquid

@litquidPM

Exploring systematic strategies on prediction markets

Katılım Ekim 2025
34 Takip Edilen7 Takipçiler
Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
@appledog_xyz @Polymarket Wow, I never realised that filter was scrollable and included maker rebates… TIL fwiw, my rebates were higher than usual last couple of days due to weekend volume
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Apple (polymarket arc)
Apple (polymarket arc)@appledog_xyz·
Why my maker rebate become pretty low in the past 2 day ? I trade pretty much on weekend
Apple (polymarket arc) tweet media
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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
@PolymarketDevs @Polymarket Is this a breaking change for existing API traders or just new? “New API key orders” could mean either… does the new refer to the the orders of the API keys
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Polymarket Developers
Polymarket Developers@PolymarketDevs·
Deposit Wallets launch tomorrow May 4, 12:30 UTC. Up to 30 min downtime to fix the ghost fills issues users have been experiencing Things will get better and better throughout the day as the rollout spreads ⚠️ Devs: New API key orders now use ERC-1271, update payloads + clients UI Users: nothing changes. docs.polymarket.com/trading/deposi…
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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
@PolymarketDevs A deprecation notice in the docs of the old endpoints would be useful to prevent new people onboarding to them.
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Polymarket Developers@PolymarketDevs·
Following up on the gamma API pagination migration As a reminder, /markets and /events will be deprecated on May 1, 2026. The new cursor-based endpoints (/markets/keyset and /events/keyset) offer better performance and reliability. If you haven't migrated yet, please do so before the deadline. Happy to help if you need anything.
Polymarket Developers@PolymarketDevs

We are introducing a new cursor-based pagination endpoints for /markets and /events - faster, more reliable, and built to scale The old offset-based endpoints will be deprecated in 3 weeks. If you're building on these, now's the time to migrate. Docs & migration details: #apr-10-2026" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.polymarket.com/changelog#apr-…

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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
We price the future. Now you can lever it. Perps are coming to Polymarket. Sign up for early access 👇
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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
@itskkoma @probabilitygod There are plenty of bookmakers that offer betting on elections etc too. The fact there is no house in PMs is a big difference imo. For one, if you’re a consistent winner in a traditional book you will just get banned.
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itskkoma
itskkoma@itskkoma·
@probabilitygod Yeah there’s some nuances with it but at the end of the day predicting vs betting lines are blurred especially with sports. Also the fees for market buys is insane
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itskkoma
itskkoma@itskkoma·
Sometimes I wonder if prediction markets is worth it At the end of the day it’s no different than a Sportsbook Most lose few win Infofi at least we all won together
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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
@XenyPM And gl with the 60k goal! Looks like you’re well on the way there
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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
@XenyPM Profitable day and got to touch some grass, seems like a good day
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Xeny
Xeny@XenyPM·
Day could've been better, but basically made back what I lost yesterday. I had some outside work I had to do and I missed out on some games.. really sad about that :( I think I missed out on a few hundred in profits My goal is to hit 60k profit in 7 days.. should be doable!
Xeny tweet media
Xeny@XenyPM

LoL matches are starting again, so I hope I'll be able to post more! Not a good start though, 2 red days in a row. I lost 2x games where odds spiked to 92%+... I should've sold I guess, but also got a bit unlucky. Unfortunately that's how it is sometimes :/ Will win it back 😄

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Moses
Moses@holy_moses7·
Breaking: A guy named "Thanks4TheMoney" just donated $10,000 to Polymarket traders by market buying then selling in a market instantly. Thank you 4 the money sir.
Moses tweet media
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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
@zostaff Where are you getting your news? What is the latency and the variance in the latency of the news provider?
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zostaff
zostaff@zostaff·
MY FRIEND WROTE A BOT I WROTE A BOT WE MADE A BET his stack is python, mine is rust python is interpreted, it has the gil, async through asyncio adds overhead the average order execution latency for the python bot under similar conditions is 150-300ms, mine is 23-50ms in a normal market the difference is not noticeable but during a news release that difference turns an entry at 0.5с into 0.58с i chose the market us strikes iran with volumes of $217ml there are no trading fees on this market, so every captured spread is pure profit the bot makes hundreds of trades with 0.2c-0.3c profit each therefore the pnl is linear without drawdowns one week of trading,then we will publish the p&l of both bots may the fastest win
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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
Care to explain @holy_moses7? I'd be interested to know the reason!
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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
I noticed something interesting when looking into @holy_moses7 activity... In a recent fed trade, where he is long the YES side of three of the outcomes, he didn't just buy those outcomes directly. Instead he bought NO on the other outcomes and then converted. I've two guesses: 1) Confuse copy traders 2) Less crossing the spread
Litquid tweet mediaLitquid tweet media
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Litquid retweetledi
Isi Breen
Isi Breen@isaiah_bb·
“So how much money could be out there in your Jesus Christ swaps and derivatives right now?” “Mmm. A billion dollars.” “What? How much bigger is the market of Rapture Derivatives than Second Coming trades?!” “About 20 times.”
Isi Breen tweet mediaIsi Breen tweet media
tedfrank@tedfrank

So the reason this Polymarket “prediction market” is performing so insanely high is because there’s a second market asking if this market will go above 5%. People in the derivative market are manipulating this market. Which defeats the public policy case for prediction markets…

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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
@phosphenq @PolymarketTrade Not true. Orders aren’t on chain until matched. As one counterpoint, if this was true, why would the account only be doing crypto markets?
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Phosphen
Phosphen@phosphenq·
Every time you hit the buy button, you're getting robbed you think the market just happened to move up right before your purchase welcome to the mempool here is the anatomy of your robbery in three acts, duration 0.5 seconds Act 1. The Bait you send a buy order, your transaction flies into the network it hangs in pending status you think you're standing in line, but actually you are standing in a display window Act 2. A Glimpse into the Future a bot scans the mempool, it sees your order before it executes it knows your volume will push the price up it's not guessing, it knows, this is inside info that you gave it yourself Act 3. The Instant Theft the bot sends its own order with a higher gas fee than yours the validator includes it first first, the bot buys low, snatching your price your trade goes through next and pushes the price up the bot immediately sells back to you, locking in profit on your dime you entered the trade at a worse price and instantly gave away a piece of the profit // interception logic in 5 lines: const monitor = new MempoolMonitorService({ // 1. bot finds your transaction in the waiting list onDetectedTrade: async (victimSignal) => { logger .info('[TARGET DETECTED] Frontrunning transaction...'); // 2. bot pays more gas to get ahead of you await executor.frontrunTrade(victimSignal); }, }); Look at the profile of the whale "anon" (rank #38) polymarket.com/profile/0xf705… net profit over $1,000,000 with a position volume of $800k players like this don't play guessing games, they possess either the information or the speed their software has already executed the order and closed the position
Phosphen tweet mediaPhosphen tweet media
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Argona
Argona@Argona0x·
i found a CLUSTER of bots on polymarket three wallets, all joined november 2025, trading identical ETH hourly markets but opposite positions wallet 1: +$1,841 profit wallet 2: -$1,841 loss wallet 3: +$221 profit wallet 4: -$221 loss the losses match the wins to the cent this isn't trading, this is volume farming here's the play: → wallet A puts $1k on UP at 50¢ → wallet B puts $1k on DOWN at 50¢ → guaranteed $1k return when market resolves → net result: break even minus fees → but massive on-chain volume generated why do this? airdrop farming if polymarket launches a token and rewards based on volume, these wallets are printing they're generating $50k+ in total volume with minimal actual risk real cost is just spread and fees the down wallet eats losses to create activity the up wallets capture wins net exposure to market movement: basically zero this is why blindly following "whale wallets" is dangerous some whales aren't predicting outcomes they're betting on platform incentives personally not doing this i'd rather make actual informed bets watch for wallet clusters with: → opposite positions on same markets → identical entry timing → P&L that cancels out that's your signal someone's farming volume, not trading outcomes be a real trader don’t be a bot make of this what you will
Argona tweet media
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CUTNPASTE
CUTNPASTE@CUTNPASTE4·
So recently polymarket introduced a 500ms taker speed bump on their 15m and 1h crypto markets. Leaving aside that this change isn't announced/displayed anywhere except for 1 post in their discord (poly try not to be retarded challenge), it will be interesting to see the market impact of this. My early guess is that basically any taker strategy will be very difficult, and with 500ms to cancel the optionality of being a maker seems very attractive.
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Litquid
Litquid@litquidPM·
@senzer @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade I’ve been thinking about those short term markets recently - my own bias at play! Though trading an October 31st market on the final day has similar time decay effects.
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Senzer
Senzer@senzer·
Started this week with zero experience trading spreads, today I just scored a 2.7% profit in 30 minutes. 🎯 Give myself a week or two to ramp up the size, test my edge, and see how far I can push it. Right now it’s all about learning, building consistency, and enjoying the process. step by step 🤲 only on @Polymarket
Senzer tweet media
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poezdec 🫵😹
poezdec 🫵😹@poesdec·
Polymarket pays you just for trading why is no one talking about Polymarket Liquidity Rewards? > pick a market under “Rewards” > place orders in the spread and keep them active > get daily USDC rewards > you’re now a Polymarket market maker deep dive in the next posts🤫
poezdec 🫵😹 tweet media
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