probability god

@saurav_tweets @Polymarket i suspect the 4th one is about one of the most historic airdrop events in crypto history

four perks of using @Polymarket: > you get smarter while researching for your trades > you earn from it > you post about polymarket and grow as a creator on ct you already know the 4th one

@_kate_lv appreciate it 🙏

@probabilitygod smart take 🫡

this is actually a very smart strategic direction by pyth. by focusing on data feeds for tradfi assets (soft commodities, livestock, precious metals, rates, equities etc.), they are essentially positioning themselves as the infrastructure layer for the future migration of trading/speculation onchain. platforms like hyperliquid and polymarket will increasingly act as the trading venues enabling 24/7 global speculation across the entire financial stack. > continuous outcomes through perp futures > binary/categorical outcomes through event contracts but for these products to function, they need a source of truth. and right now, that infrastructure is fragmented. hyperliquid largely relies on its own oracle infrastructure, while polymarket currently uses a mixture of third party sources: > chainlink/binance for crypto > pyth for commodities > various custom resolution sources for geopolitical/economic events pyth has the potential to capture a huge part of the tradfi oracle infrastructure layer for event contracts and onchain derivatives. think about the possible surface area: > commodities (xauusd, oil, ng, cocoa, coffee etc.) > equities (nvda, amzn, aapl etc.) > treasury securities/rates > options/implied volatility events > macroeconomic indicators > geopolitical event-linked contracts the number of possible contracts is basically uncapped. as more speculation of tradfi assets moves onchain, increasingly granular contracts will emerge to price aspects of reality that currently aren’t directly tradable. the interesting question imo is the long-term relationship between polymarket and pyth. because if polymarket launches perpetual futures / continuous price speculation instruments (which has already been hinted at), they could theoretically use their own perp market’s mark price as the resolution source. at that point polymarket starts vertically integrating the entire stack: > price discovery / oracle layer > market structure (clob) > end-user product they potentially wouldn’t need external oracle providers anymore for certain asset classes. however, even with that possibility, i still think pyth is moving extremely intelligently here. they are positioning themselves as the shovel seller for a potential gold rush: 24/7 onchain speculation of the entire tradfi universe.

@Maximilian_evm this is gonna be massive when it comes to onboarding retail traders it's one of the most popular products in traditional sportsbooks

Polymarket is likely to launch a parlay feature soon. This is a massive game-changer, and I absolutely can’t wait to try it.

@thenarrator anecdotally, i know a few extremely sharp and profitable traders that don't have any formal education

the best prediction market trader probably has never read a finance textbook. he just understands people better than anyone in the room

@rb_tweets printing on poly benefits

this is how your email finds me on a weekend

@0xd1namit yo count me in

Networking session If you trade on Polymarket, DM me or leave a comment, I want to get in touch with you * I will not shill you anything, really want to connect with ppl in space

@0xd1namit offering unique value props is necessary in order to stand out. nowadays everyone can vibecode a terminal app

Literally every new project in the Polymarket ecosystem: • Copytrading • Smart money tracking • Bloomberg terminal • AI agents trading for you On top of that they add their fee They all look the same, I can’t imagine how hard it is to attract users when you’re not offering anything special

unpopular opinion but i believe that it's futile trying to remove all insiders from a market, when progressively the whole industry is moving towards a more open and permisionless landscape. like in a few years, a significant part of tradfi speculation will take place onchain, thus it will be even harder to guard these markets and exclude insiders.

This is not a new phenomenon. Insider trading from corrupt politicians has been happening for years in TradFi, it's just hard to track. The beauty of on chain PMs is that it exposes them and becomes public info This is not the fault of PMs, but the people that were elected

@palqa_ in hindsight it would have been obvious

the moment we probably should’ve realized Polymarket was inevitable MrBeast opening it on camera to check odds on himself

@0xd1namit i think slowly we are gonna have a prediction market attached to every piece of content in the media business

We can now predict which characters will appear in the new season of Rick and Morty The odds of Evil Morty appearing are 87%. I personally think he will appear there I love this cartoon and glad to see this collab

@TheeAlex yeah, crypto was designed from ground up in order to server as a modular, interoperable and open financial ecosystem, and there's no other party that could benefit from this other than agents.

the inception of ai agents happens to be one of the expressions of neo capitalism and this means ai agents profileration which is fastracked due to open source modus operandi of crypto, would gradually thin out the profit margin of many legacy products. safe to say Hoseeb, has always been right on the fact that, the blockchain design fits more of ai agents than humans

crypto will speedrun from “finance cosplay” to actual financial infrastructure the moment agents start interacting directly with the payments ecosystem. the interoperability of crypto/blockchain allows for seamless integration of complex financial services, transactions and opinions through a public, transparent ledger on top of a verifiable world computer. through a unified interface(wallet + smart contract function call) anyone (human or agent) can interact with financial primitives globally. just think about it. through a wallet alone you can: > lend and borrow funds > participate in speculative/prediction markets > raise capital through ICOs/token sales > exchange value globally with minimal fees and latency > get exposure to tradfi assets and their associated geopolitical/economic events > provide liquidity and earn yield > coordinate organizations through DAOs/multisigs > access programmable stablecoin payment rails 24/7 there’s no web2 payments system that natively supports all of this through a single composable infrastructure layer. and this becomes even more important once agents start transacting autonomously. eventually: > agents will pay for inference/compute > agents will buy APIs and datasets > agents will hedge geopolitical/economic exposure through prediction markets > agents will hire other agents for specialized tasks > agents will coordinate capital allocation through onchain organizations an AI trading agent interacting with polymarket, hyperliquid and a lending protocol simultaneously reality today. imagine what happens when agents performance maximizes. there’s a historic opportunity in building the infrastructure layer above which agentic payments and autonomous economic coordination become reality.

@polyslav true i forgot to mention that with the rise of vibecoding, people will want to build and invest in their own financial infrastructure, tailored engineered for their specific requirements

@probabilitygod agency costs drop near zero and suddenly financial plumbing is just another endpoint

@mfardecrouz poly staking for bonus coefficient>1 on the weighted volume equation or what? mustafa make it happenn

Taker rebate program is done Now $POLY staking is coming

@kardinall there's a possibility that agentic use cases will be the catalyst that pushes crypto over the limit and unlocks mass adoption

@probabilitygod wait this actually sounds like the real unlock

@Frosen 20k distributed to $12M+ worth of resting orders

There appears to be 20k in LP rewards on a market that has already ended Millions of shares in the order book as everyone is trying to farm this Seems like very inefficient way of deploying LP rewards 😅

@PMTraderAdam @JexTrade @PolymarketDevs @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade $5k/month is impressive af congrats man 🫡

I've made over $5,000 in the last month on Polymarket I'm exclusively placing all my trades now on my own trading tool @JexTrade I've seen my profits skyrocket since the switch!

@GingyTrades never stop speculating 🙏

Trust in God, and things will always work out. Every setback is a setup for a comeback.

@grazkag @Polymarket good analysis. the clarification about the actual net amount of taker rebates earned after the reduction of fee spent is eye opening and sets the tier rewards in a more realistic perspective

Taker rebates aren't "free money" @Polymarket The actual math is sharper: → $304K gross fees to climb to Obsidian (Crypto markets) → $190K after rebates → $156K after rebates + level-up bonuses Still expensive. But $148K different from the headline. This isn't a rebate program. It's a trader loyalty curve dressed as a video game Bronze → Obsidian. The rebates matter. The badge might be the real drug.