@rcom1337 haha it's gonna be interesting
master vs student type of situation
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probability god
7.8K posts
probability god
@probabilitygod
YES Chad | Polymarket Tools @vatic_trading
Katılım Temmuz 2025
1.6K Takip Edilen4K Takipçiler
@probabilitygod Let the experienced and goaty team show the young boy the real play
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IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS. 🏆
- Spain 🇪🇸 vs Argentina 🇦🇷.
The 2026 World Cup Final.
- Lamine Yamal vs Lionel Messi.
One generation trying to begin its dynasty, another trying to cement its legacy.
A few observations from the markets a few hours before kickoff:
> The World Cup Winner market currently has a ~2% cross-platform arbitrage.
-- Spain: 59c on Hyperliquid
-- Argentina: 39c on SXbet
-- Polymarket remains the liquidity king, with $10M+ matched volume and more than $50M in open interest on the final.
-- Despite that, Hyperliquid and SXbet continue to offer the best prices on individual sides for smaller trades.
Whales are also showing up for the biggest game of the tournament:
> $1.35M backing Spain
> $1.30M backing Argentina
> $700k on the Draw
> Plus multiple six-figure positions across qualification, totals and match result markets.
The market couldn’t be more split. Personally, I’m backing Spain. I took a small position around 59%. Let’s see if Yamal & co. can finish off an incredible tournament.
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@goatyishere my counterparty 😈
jkjk, let's hope it's a nice, pleasant game
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@Nik_Poly rodri and yamal can be a good hedged bet honestly. doubt the silver ball will go to mbappe even if in terms of performance he deserves it. especially if spain wins the tournament
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The WC Silver Ball market might be even more interesting than the Golden Ball one🤔
We all know Messi will win the Golden Ball, but who will be second place? For me it should be Kylian Mbappe.
However, if Rodri or Yamal have a crazy final, they could still win it.
I bought some Jude Bellingham NO, because if Spain loses, Mbappe wins it for sure.
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@rcom1337 mbappe needed some extra money to spend on his upcoming vacation
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HE KNEW MBAPPE WOULD BEAT MESSI TO THE GOLDEN BOOT
France lost the semi on July 14. Mbappé is out of the final. So, the market dumped him to 36c.
15 hours later:
→ 80,000$ in one order at 13:12
→ never touched it again
no news, no insider, no leak. pure conviction.
what's now?
Mbappé scored twice against England in the third-place match: 10 total goals, two clear of Messi.
instant +$116,719.94 profit, and he still waits for the resolution.
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@0xkekov i think you got the best position: if both teams score, you are free to enjoy the rest of the game, without caring who's gonna win
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Spain vs. Argentina
this is the game I was waiting for the whole life
when I was 5, my friend itroduced me to football. I've asked: "what's the best team?"
and he said "Barcelona"
it was the moment I fell in love with this game (and Messi)
I don't have any favorite today
I just want to see magic
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@breezyjpg @Polymarket @PolymarketSport @PolymarketTrade if this 3-2 prediction turns out true, it's gonna be proof that we live in a simulation 100%
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I built a 2,600% combo on Polymarket that could turn $10.49 into $276.05 on the FIFA World Cup final
Not gonna lie, this move is based entirely on a random tweet from 2021 that said, "Argentina 3-2 Spain"
I won't be disappointed if I don't get 2x Big Macs, but it will def feel incredible if he turns out to be right
Let Messi's aura make it happen (3% odds)
dilemma@actuallyimthe
...today is the day.
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gPoly friends ❤️🔥
i never thought choosing would be this hard
Spain or Argentina
of course my heart wants Messi to win one last World Cup
but then i look at this Spain team and think about how important these moments are for the new generation
Messi was the idol and role model for many young players there
and that’s why this match is not only important for the fans but also a special moment of a new generation taking over
i hope to see a great game from Yamal, Pedri, Gavi and Cubarsi
and i’m picking Spain to win the 2026 wc on @thefireflyapp
Firefly ✨ Everything App@thefireflyapp
It's all down to this 🏆 Spain 🇪🇸 vs Argentina 🇦🇷 The trophy The glory One final prediction Who's taking it home? Make your call on Firefly ⚽️
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yeah a lot of whales are positioned against argentina winning the cup, but i also see significant activity in the possibility of a draw.
either way, it's definitely gonna be one of the most unpredicateble football matches of the last couple of years.
still though, there are no >$1.5m bets yet, let's see if this changes the next few hours
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Polymarket whales are still putting big against Argentina today
Big money is clearly waiting for Argentina to lose the World Cup final
And honestly, I don’t think this is random
Everyone wants the legendary story:
The last World Cup for Messi, the final vs Spain, the number 19 everywhere
But I still think Argentina is underrated here
This final is going to be legendary either way
David Mozhaev@DavidMozhaev
This legendary Polymarket trader just put $500K on France losing to England today France are the obvious favorite here But this trader has made almost $4M since the start of the World Cup by betting against favorites And somehow, it keeps working Personally, I’d definitely watch the draw here The better play might be catching a move during the match and locking profit before full time France vs England should be very interesting.
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@Nik_Poly messi needs to pull of a generational appearance to win the golden boot today
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@KnightPredict spain, but deep down i want to see a pleasant, enjoyable game
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@probabilitygod Turns out it really exists after all! And who are you rooting for today?
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this dude on Polymarket has millions on the line for 🇪🇸Spain vs 🇦🇷Argentina final
and these are just his biggest positions - he has plenty of smaller ones riding on this match too
here is how he's breaking down his risk:
- backing Spain and shorting Argentina
$343k on Argentina to win the World Cup (NO)
$111k on Spain to win the World Cup (YES)
- shorting superstar goals
$231k on Lionel Messi to score 3+ goals (NO)
$184k on Lionel Messi to score 2+ goals (NO)
$143k on Lamine Yamal to score 3+ goals (NO)
- exact scores
$815k on Spain 2 - 3 Argentina (NO)
$691k on Spain 3 - 3 Argentina (NO)
$272k on Spain 2 - 2 Argentina (NO)
$166k on Spain 2 - 1 Argentina (NO)
$142k on Spain 1 - 2 Argentina (NO)
that's over $3.1 million locked up just in these visible trades, all to clear around $328,000 in profit
he's banking on a low-scoring, controlled game to clean out the board
who do you think takes the trophy tonight?
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@goatyishere bro will end the world cup with a profit larger than most of the football players
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This Polymarket trader just loaded $10M on the Spain vs Argentina World Cup final
While everyone is arguing over who wins the World Cup...
swisstony has quietly deployed $10M across dozens of markets for Spain vs Argentina
Profile: @swisstony?via=goaty" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@swisstony?via…
Instead of making one huge bet, he's attacking the odds from every angle
Biggest positions:
• $1.53M - Spain 2-3 Argentina NO
• $1.30M - Argentina +1.5
• $1.19M - Spain 3-3 Argentina NO
• $895K - Spain 3-2 Argentina NO
What do you think he sees that everyone else is missing?
Goaty@goatyishere
$666 on Argentina let's f*cking go, boys! 🇦🇷
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@tsybka @PolymarketTrade yeah i think this is essentially a bond. even though spain has one of the most robust defenses of the tournament, messi will find some space to try for a goal.
the only way i see this resolving as under is if he gets injured
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Imagine Lionel Messi not taking a single shot in the 2025 World Cup final - it's absurd.
Penalty = shot.
Direct free kick = shot.
Messi will have chances to shoot from all over the pitch. And considering this could be the WC final at the twilight of his career, he'll want to leave his mark on history and finish the story in style.
1+ shot at 92c feels like free money for the biggest match of the tournament.
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The most cheating way to win the World Cup's best striker award
Mbappé walks out of it with 10 goals for the tournament
Polymarket Golden Boot right now:
Kylian Mbappé -92%
Lionel Messi -7%
Messi sits on 8. Spain's Oyarzabal on 5. final is Spain vs Argentina
and yesterday's France vs England third-place game looked like a hockey match, pure chaos, both sides just throwing bodies forward
It seems strange to me but it does feel a little on the nose that the guy who got locked down vs Spain got a bonus match to pad the table while Messi only has one more night and a two goal hole
final can still flip the plot. Messi needs a night
GIF
vvtentt@Vvtentt101
Bellingham is the only Golden Ball favorite whose line moved this week up 12% everyone else is frozen Mbappé still owns the top spot Messi, thanks to his legendary status and professionalism, is not far behind him England vs Argentina Bellingham and Messi on the same pitch fighting for the same trophy France play Spain tomorrow Mbappé gets his turn first
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@mini_boss_io damn bro. you were spot on with your prediction.
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France are going home 3rd place. Quite alright, but I think it's gonna be a goal fest game imo.
With mbappé setting eyes on the golden boot, he is likely to be at his very best today.
Regardless, don't think england will sleep off in this game.
truth ♟️ (pain arc)@heistruthX
thesis for tonight’s games. —> 3-2 —> 3-1 - mbappe 1+ goal - dembele 1 goal -kane 1 goal - bellingham 1 goal —> GG —> over 2.5 —> france first to score —> france win in 90 mins. NFA.
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it's kinda true tbh and i fell victim of this as well. but at the same time, it's not the end of the world. gambling is part of life and sometimes you just need to take the edge off and have some fun.
personally i started betting with a small amount at the start of the tournament from a new account, so that i wouldn't destroy my pnl on geopolitics and finance which i had developed during the past year.
trading is definitely what prediction market should be about, but having some fun here and there isn't that catastrophic
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prediction markets are turning us all into gamblers
not saying that to be dramatic, just noticed it hard during the World Cup
all of CT turned into a sportsbook. everyone's "making bets" just for fun, then posting about it
for me, prediction markets were always closer to trading than gambling
but let's be honest,most people aren't trading these sports markets. they're betting on them
and creators are leaning into it: "gonna make a bet and post about it" is basically a content format now
not mad about it, just noticing the shift
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@0xKorens i've seen him placing massive bets here and there. definitely a goat.
imagine finishing the world cup with $3m profit and not even being a football player
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$3M profit and he’s holding just two tickets to the final
Meet Allezpapa. 155 trades, a $743K biggest win, and one of the cleanest World Cup books on Polymarket right now
No day-trading. No chasing green candles. Just two early bets left to ripen:
🇪🇸 Spain to win it all - Yes at 15.6¢, now +277% (+$1.16M)
🇦🇷 Argentina to win it all - Yes at 8.6¢, now +376% (+$253K)
He bought both when nobody believed. Loaded the two teams most likely to lift the trophy - at pennies on the dollar
He doesn’t care who wins the final. He just needs it to be one of these two. He’s not betting a team
Conviction bought early beats a hot take made late
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